Religion and Ethics Forum
General Category => Politics & Current Affairs => Topic started by: Jack Knave on March 31, 2017, 06:18:52 PM
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...as we know it.
Brexit, I reckon, will be the straw that breaks the EU's camel's back.
As we saw with Indyref1 and the referendum once people have to put their cards on the table and make their hands count i.e. polarize the situation, vote and affect the reality on the ground, then divisions and the like take place for real, and in some cases breakups. Whilst there are no real consequences, only debate and speculation, these tensions are endured and held in check in the background. Only when they come into the full light of day of being implemented do the sparks start to fly.
Well, with Brexit this type of situation will be forced onto many of the EU institutions to put their cards on the table about how to deal with the UK. Each having their own agendas and ideas about what is good for them and then having a vote on the deal. The EU is already in crisis with the Euro (youth unemployment etc.), immigration (Turkey), Trump's coolness towards the EU and the NATO issue he has raised, and their Eastern front with Russia where the East Europeans experiences of the Soviet Union have made them edgy and in need of our security and military know how. The general discontent of the EU in some quarters (the weakening of the political arena) and differing views about where the EU should progress to, or pull back to previous positions etc.
All this, not including Brexit, is causing riffs in Brussels and the EU to start to crack up. Those at the top know it. Though they see Brexit as being lower down on their list of importance and matters to focus on, it is in fact something that is going to pull them all together and make them see, in stark clarity, just how fractious the whole of the EU is and how their various opinions and ideas are pulling away from each other.
Tusk has said he wants the exit fee (60-50 billion) to be settled first before trade talks begin. That's because the EU is short of funds and our exit will make matters worse so they want to fix this unrealistic high sum before anything else. He also talks about the EU working as a united group in Brexit but this just to highlight the fact that this exactly what they are not.
Brexit will split them into many fragments and will precipitate the eventual breakup of the EU. It is unlikely, in my view, that we will even reach the end of the Brexit negotiations, but they will fizzle out and morph into some holding arrangement with the deflated EU state that could linger for years.
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...as we know it.
Brexit, I reckon, will be the straw that breaks the EU's camel's back.
As we saw with Indyref1 and the referendum once people have to put their cards on the table and make their hands count i.e. polarize the situation, vote and affect the reality on the ground, then divisions and the like take place for real, and in some cases breakups. Whilst there are no real consequences, only debate and speculation, these tensions are endured and held in check in the background. Only when they come into the full light of day of being implemented do the sparks start to fly.
Well, with Brexit this type of situation will be forced onto many of the EU institutions to put their cards on the table about how to deal with the UK. Each having their own agendas and ideas about what is good for them and then having a vote on the deal. The EU is already in crisis with the Euro (youth unemployment etc.), immigration (Turkey), Trump's coolness towards the EU and the NATO issue he has raised, and their Eastern front with Russia where the East Europeans experiences of the Soviet Union have made them edgy and in need of our security and military know how. The general discontent of the EU in some quarters (the weakening of the political arena) and differing views about where the EU should progress to, or pull back to previous positions etc.
All this, not including Brexit, is causing riffs in Brussels and the EU to start to crack up. Those at the top know it. Though they see Brexit as being lower down on their list of importance and matters to focus on, it is in fact something that is going to pull them all together and make them see, in stark clarity, just how fractious the whole of the EU is and how their various opinions and ideas are pulling away from each other.
Tusk has said he wants the exit fee (60-50 billion) to be settled first before trade talks begin. That's because the EU is short of funds and our exit will make matters worse so they want to fix this unrealistic high sum before anything else. He also talks about the EU working as a united group in Brexit but this just to highlight the fact that this exactly what they are not.
Brexit will split them into many fragments and will precipitate the eventual breakup of the EU. It is unlikely, in my view, that we will even reach the end of the Brexit negotiations, but they will fizzle out and morph into some holding arrangement with the deflated EU state that could linger for years.
Brexit is far more of an existential threat to the UK than it is to the EU.
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Brexit is far more of an existential threat to the UK than it is to the EU.
Not in the long term.
The difference being is that the separate parts of the UK are entities in their own right. The EU is a kind of an emergent property that once its component parts cease to be coalesced and bonded to each other it disappears. And this happens when those component parts start pulling in different directions and not act as a whole as they are starting to do now.
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All this, not including Brexit, is causing riffs in Brussels and the EU to start to crack up. Those at the top know it. Though they see Brexit as being lower down on their list of importance and matters to focus on, it is in fact something that is going to pull them all together and make them see, in stark clarity, just how fractious the whole of the EU is and how their various opinions and ideas are pulling away from each other.
This by itself destroys the credibility of your argument. Lower down their list of importance? You have to be joking. Brexit is the single most important thing that the EU is dealing with at the moment and they know it.
You keep assigning motives to people you don't know but you really don't have any basis for your assertions. And yes, Brexit is pulling the EU together, but not in the way you hope..
You and your fellow Brexiteers have made us the enemy of Europe. We will lose. Big time.
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You and your fellow Brexiteers have made us the enemy of Europe. We will lose. Big time.
Who do you think you are kidding Mr. JP
If you think we're on the run?
We are the boys who will stop your little game
We are the boys who will make you think again
Cause who do you think you are kidding Mr. JP
If you think old England's done?
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Who do you think you are kidding Mr. JP
If you think we're on the run?
We are the boys who will stop your little game
We are the boys who will make you think again
Cause who do you think you are kidding Mr. JP
If you think old England's done?
Looking at the voting patterns in referendum if would be fair to say that 'old England' has certainly 'done' us Scots over.
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Looking at the voting patterns in referendum if would be fair to say that 'old England' has certainly 'done' us Scots over.
They have done everybody over including themselves.
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The Brexit vote has done us all over. We will all rue the day we leave the EU, even the Brexiteers, imo. :o
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Looking at the voting patterns in referendum if would be fair to say that 'old England' has certainly 'done' us Scots over.
It would be fairer to say that the democratic process of the U.K. resulted in a majority of voters electing to leave the E.U. I doubt whether racial prejudice against the Scots entered into it.
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It would be fairer to say that the democratic process of the U.K. resulted in a majority of voters electing to leave the E.U. I doubt whether racial prejudice against the Scots entered into it.
not what Gordon wrote.
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not what Gordon wrote.
That's correct, because I wrote it.
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That's correct, because I wrote it.
and you portrayed a strawman to reply to
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That's correct, because I wrote it.
NS is saying that Gordon never said that racial prejudice was involved.
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NS is saying that Gordon never said that racial prejudice was involved.
Good, then perhaps Gordon and I are tacitly in agreement.
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and you portrayed a strawman to reply to
No I didn't.
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No I didn't.
he's behind you!!!
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he's behind you!!!
That's because you put him there.
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That's because you put him there.
boooooooo!!!!!
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They have done everybody over including themselves.
True.
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They have done everybody over including themselves.
Yep.
I was talking to a friend from a northern town who voted leave because of what happened to his docks and the fishing industry. He hasn't taken on board that it's just going to get even worse, for everyone. There will be no alternative industries and not enough tax take to support those who cannot find work.
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It would be fairer to say that the democratic process of the U.K. resulted in a majority of voters electing to leave the E.U. I doubt whether racial prejudice against the Scots entered into it.
I didn't mention racial prejudice: I referred to 'voting patterns' and it is an unfortunate fact that Brexit was carried by votes in England just as it is an unfortunate fact that the Tories are in government due to votes in England.
To add, I was picking up on the lyrics you quoted.
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it is an unfortunate fact that Brexit was carried by votes in England
Brexit was carried by everybody who voted for Leave. That includes a sizeable number of people in Scotland.
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I didn't mention racial prejudice: I referred to 'voting patterns' and it is an unfortunate fact that Brexit was carried by votes in England just as it is an unfortunate fact that the Tories are in government due to votes in England.
To add, I was picking up on the lyrics you quoted.
Yes, the lyrics were unfortunate and disrespectful of the rest of the UK. The reason I posted it was to hint at an alternative response other than JP's 'We will lose. Big time.' There were those during the war who thought that, after appeasement failed. There were many others who united to overcome the odds and turned around what was then also an unfortunate fact. Whether Brexit succeeds or fails, I doubt whether anybody really knows but I doubt whether declaring ourselves as losers before we start will help and neither will disunity through political infighting.
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Brexit was carried by everybody who voted for Leave. That includes a sizeable number of people in Scotland.
Perhaps we should ask for independence from older people or people without a degree.
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Yes, the lyrics were unfortunate and disrespectful of the rest of the UK. The reason I posted it was to hint at an alternative response other than JP's 'We will lose. Big time.' There were those during the war who thought that, after appeasement failed. There were many others who united to overcome the odds and turned around what was then also an unfortunate fact. Whether Brexit succeeds or fails, I doubt whether anybody really knows but I doubt whether declaring ourselves as losers before we start will help and neither will disunity through political infighting.
In WW2 we were fighting an aggressive and fascist regime. In Brexit we are fighting a coalition of states that have decided that cooperation is better than competition and are trying to build a better Europe for everyone. I'm on their side.
By the way, we came out of WW2 bankrupt. We didn't win, we only lost less badly than we might have.
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Perhaps we should ask for independence from older people or people without a degree.
I keep hearing the line that Brexit is government of old people, by old people, for old people. Not completely true, of course, but I feel sorry for young people, who may not be able to live and work in Europe as easily. My nephew has a Lithuanian girl-friend, and they have no idea what will happen.
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In WW2 we were fighting an aggressive and fascist regime. In Brexit we are fighting a coalition of states that have decided that cooperation is better than competition and are trying to build a better Europe for everyone. I'm on their side.
By the way, we came out of WW2 bankrupt. We didn't win, we only lost less badly than we might have.
I understand your position. There were people in our country during the war who were also on the other side. If your side have decided that cooperation is better than competition then they should still be motivated by that noble sentiment when negotiating Brexit and there will be no need for any fighting. There are no real winners in a war and there are many losers. We had a huge financial debt which was finally paid back to USA by about the year 2000 I think. This was another obstacle overcome by pulling together, not apart.
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I understand your position. There were people in our country during the war who were also on the other side. If your side have decided that cooperation is better than competition then they should still be motivated by that noble sentiment when negotiating Brexit and there will be no need for any fighting. There are no real winners in a war and there are many losers. We had a huge financial debt which was finally paid back to USA by about the year 2000 I think. This was another obstacle overcome by pulling together, not apart.
so which side, if any, do you think are like the Nazis? Because if you say neither, the analogy fails on it's most only salient connection.
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This by itself destroys the credibility of your argument. Lower down their list of importance? You have to be joking. Brexit is the single most important thing that the EU is dealing with at the moment and they know it.
You keep assigning motives to people you don't know but you really don't have any basis for your assertions. And yes, Brexit is pulling the EU together, but not in the way you hope..
You and your fellow Brexiteers have made us the enemy of Europe. We will lose. Big time.
Jeremy, may I suggest that you actually find out what's going on before you stick your foot in it. What is coming out of the EU from many quarters is that they have more important issues to deal with including Greece and the Euro, and immigration/terror threats and Turkey. But Brexit will focus minds and make them see how divided they are.
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In WW2 we were fighting an aggressive and fascist regime. In Brexit we are fighting a coalition of states that have decided that cooperation is better than competition and are trying to build a better Europe for everyone. I'm on their side.
By the way, we came out of WW2 bankrupt. We didn't win, we only lost less badly than we might have.
A better Europe? Pull the other one!!!! Tell Greece that. Tell the vast amount of youths who are unemployed.
One thing you lot fail to see is that when we leave the EU they will lose our membership fee, and if they are stupid (which they are) they could lose much of our trade with them which amounts in excess of theirs to us by £60 billion. They have massive costs to deal with with the Euro and Greece and are therefore short of funds. The rich members don't want to pay more and the net gainers won't want that reduced. They are in a mess and Brexit will highlight this fact, and their division in how to move the EU project on, because of that mess.
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One thing you lot fail to see is that when we leave the EU they will lose our membership fee
Which the EU is well aware of. But they will also reduce liabilities of supporting the UK through vast numbers of EU-funded projects. Don't forget too that unless we have the hardest of hard Brexits there is likely to continue to be a fee, linked to preferential access to the single market.
, and if they are stupid (which they are) they could lose much of our trade with them which amounts in excess of theirs to us by £60 billion.
Oh no the same old disingenuous (if I'm being charitable) clap-trap that they need us more than we need them. The actual amount is irrelevant, because the size of the rEU economy is massively greater than that of the UK. The key issue is the proportion of their economy/trade associated with rEU/UK trade. For us that is about 50% of our foreign trade. For the rEU member states it is less than 10% so it is much more significant for the UK than for the other EU member states.
And given that all member states must agree on a deal the country with the least trade will have just as much sway as the one with the most. I think I am right that Romania/UK trade is a tiny part of the Romanian economy so they will be barely affected by a poor trade deal but can block a decent one. They will, however, be really concerned about their citizens living in the UK, so Romania can readily block a trade deal unless it is linked to the rights of its citizens (just as they did for years over the EU/Canada trade deal).
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Just a note I think the EU will be fine so do not agree with JK.
I'm still expecting freedom of movement of labour/free trade deal in the interests of all parties.
Won't say more than that as I'll get the normal yaaboo sucks bile back. :(
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so which side, if any, do you think are like the Nazis? Because if you say neither, the analogy fails on it's most only salient connection.
I think it is safe to say that all analogies will fail if pushed too far. This analogy is about the merits of pulling together in the face of adversity rather than pulling apart or running away. The same argument could have been made for pulling together as a united Europe in the face of possible disintegration. Unless the decision to leave can be reversed then it is probably better to work together towards a solution optimistically with a 'Can Do' attitude rather than waving 'Prepare to meet thy doom' placards at every opportunity. It is not about Nazis, it is about positive resolve and preparation in the face of adversity. In those days the publicity and media fostered the appropriate morale building news, today it feeds upon negativity and so it will be more of an uphill struggle.
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Just a note I think the EU will be fine so do not agree with JK.
I agree - from an economic perspective the UK leaving is an irritation, but not a game changer. For the EU this issue is more about the politics and not doing anything which might be seen as giving a green light to other countries that might be thinking of jumping ship. So no special deal for the UK, no allowance of substantially free trade with the single market without upholding the other freedoms.
I'm still expecting freedom of movement of labour/free trade deal in the interests of all parties.
I hope this will be the case, but I'm worried that May has boxed herself into a corner of hard Brexit to placate the anti-immigration minority rump. What won't happen, in my opinion, is that the UK gets a great free trade deal without accepting free movement. That said the free movement might only be for labour (i.e. need a job offer), rather than full free movement.
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I think it is safe to say that all analogies will fail if pushed too far. This analogy is about the merits of pulling together in the face of adversity rather than pulling apart or running away. The same argument could have been made for pulling together as a united Europe in the face of possible disintegration. Unless the decision to leave can be reversed then it is probably better to work together towards a solution optimistically with a 'Can Do' attitude rather than waving 'Prepare to meet thy doom' placards at every opportunity. It is not about Nazis, it is about positive resolve and preparation in the face of adversity. In those days the publicity and media fostered the appropriate morale building news, today it feeds upon negativity and so it will be more of an uphill struggle.
I didn't try and stretch it. Pulling together in adversity needs a very clear agreement by the vast majority of people of what the adversity is! That was the case with the war, it isn't the case here. That people stretch analogies is true, but that people make bad analogies is also true.
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I didn't try and stretch it. Pulling together in adversity needs a very clear agreement by the vast majority of people of what the adversity is!
It is also difficult to argue for pulling together in adversity when half the population are the cause of that adversity (or rather half of the voting population). Usually we pull together in adversity when that adversity is clearly seen not to be our fault, as would be the case in WWII.
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It is also difficult to argue for pulling together in adversity when half the population are the cause of that adversity (or rather half of the voting population). Usually we pull together in adversity when that adversity is clearly seen not to be our fault, as would be the case in WWII.
I think this is just using a bad analogy badly. Those voting for out don't see themselves as causing adversity but taking a tough decision in order to get to a better place. It underlines the issue with the analogy since it implicitly portrays the Leave side as somehow equivalent to the Nazis
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I agree - from an economic perspective the UK leaving is an irritation, but not a game changer. For the EU this issue is more about the politics and not doing anything which might be seen as giving a green light to other countries that might be thinking of jumping ship. So no special deal for the UK, no allowance of substantially free trade with the single market without upholding the other freedoms.
I hope this will be the case, but I'm worried that May has boxed herself into a corner of hard Brexit to placate the anti-immigration minority rump. What won't happen, in my opinion, is that the UK gets a great free trade deal without accepting free movement. That said the free movement might only be for labour (i.e. need a job offer), rather than full free movement.
I think i agree with almost all of that.
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Which the EU is well aware of. But they will also reduce liabilities of supporting the UK through vast numbers of EU-funded projects. Don't forget too that unless we have the hardest of hard Brexits there is likely to continue to be a fee, linked to preferential access to the single market.
We are the second highest contributors - that's net!!!. The richer members don't won't to pay more (hard times etc.) and the net recipients don't want to take a cut (hard times etc.). The EU has debts, mainly the Euro Zone. Also a large institution like the EU is expensive to run.
Oh no the same old disingenuous (if I'm being charitable) clap-trap that they need us more than we need them. The actual amount is irrelevant, because the size of the rEU economy is massively greater than that of the UK. The key issue is the proportion of their economy/trade associated with rEU/UK trade. For us that is about 50% of our foreign trade. For the rEU member states it is less than 10% so it is much more significant for the UK than for the other EU member states.
And given that all member states must agree on a deal the country with the least trade will have just as much sway as the one with the most. I think I am right that Romania/UK trade is a tiny part of the Romanian economy so they will be barely affected by a poor trade deal but can block a decent one. They will, however, be really concerned about their citizens living in the UK, so Romania can readily block a trade deal unless it is linked to the rights of its citizens (just as they did for years over the EU/Canada trade deal).
It is more like 43% and as that is only about 30 - 35% of our total trade then that amounts to about 15% of the total UK output.
For the EU I've heard it is more like 17%. However, as it is more high end goods, that we buy, it will affect members like Germany and France and so it shouldn't be as a % of the EU but of the individual members and that makes it pretty high for them. So the likes of BMW etc. will be nagging Merkel, or whoever, to give us a tariff free deal.
As for members such as Romania the EU, i.e. Germany, have a way of forcing/bullying the lesser members to do as they want, especially as our trade is a reality now not some future affair as with Canada and there is 2 year time limit. So we have the upper here!!! But as point out there are too may fingers in the pie here hence my claim in this thread's OP.
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I agree - from an economic perspective the UK leaving is an irritation, but not a game changer. For the EU this issue is more about the politics and not doing anything which might be seen as giving a green light to other countries that might be thinking of jumping ship. So no special deal for the UK, no allowance of substantially free trade with the single market without upholding the other freedoms.
I agree with you there. And that is why they are going to mess up. There primary motivator is politics first over economics, so that their ever closer union project takes preference over the economic imperative - look at the Euro, that was a political project not an economic one.
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It is also difficult to argue for pulling together in adversity when half the population are the cause of that adversity (or rather half of the voting population). Usually we pull together in adversity when that adversity is clearly seen not to be our fault, as would be the case in WWII.
From that then you have to agree with me that the EU is going to crack up as they do not think with one mind or from the same song sheet. They all have their particular agendas to promote.
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From that then you have to agree with me that the EU is going to crack up as they do not think with one mind or from the same song sheet. They all have their particular agendas to promote.
The same is true for any group of people coming together as a country or union of countries. What keeps them together is a notion that the benefits of being together outweighs the downsides of having to compromise individual views on the basis of the collective.
And we see this with the UK or any other individual country just as much as with the EU. You'll note that (as examples) both the UK and the USA are split almost perfectly down the middle on some major political issues (see EU referendum and USA presidential election).
It doesn't mean that they are about to fall apart - sure there are clear existential threats to the UK currently, but I don't see these for either the USA nor the EU.
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Without the EU to back it up I think Britain will become increasingly insignificant.
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It is more like 43% and as that is only about 30 - 35% of our total trade then that amounts to about 15% of the total UK output.
44% of our exports and 53% of our imports are with other EU member states - hence my 'about 50%' statement.
For the EU I've heard it is more like 17%.
Nope - you are comparing apples and pears - the actual figure of foreign trade from other EU member states as a proportion of their total foreign trade (i.e. the same comparison) is 8%.
It is pretty easy to see how you can cope with a bit of a hit on 8% of your trade, given that 92% is unaffected. Much harder to see how you can cope with a bit of a hit on touching 50% of your trade.
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Can I try and put it another way?
Of the total EU export trade, 8% is with the UK. This is 1/12 of the total. Therefore 11/12 goes elsewhere. The UK is a small part of the total. To lose this would be unfortunate but not critical because it should not be too difficult to make it up elsewhere.
Of UK export trade 44%is with the EU. This is almost half. There is no other export market or group of markets anywhere in the world that even approaches this. Its loss would be catastrophic. The UK (or rUK) would be reduced to the status of (say) Argentina.
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I understand your position. There were people in our country during the war who were also on the other side.
No, you do not get to say that. The EU is not a fascist regime and I am not on the side of the Nazis. Please quit with your false analogy.
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Jeremy, may I suggest that you actually find out what's going on before you stick your foot in it.
I know what's going on, it's you that is uninformed.
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I'm still expecting freedom of movement of labour/free trade deal in the interests of all parties.
The trouble with that is that free movement of labour is a red line to many of the people who voted Brexit. If we do a deal with free movement of labour in it, I think Theresa May will be finished.
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This analogy is about the merits of pulling together in the face of adversity rather than pulling apart or running away.
No it wasn't, it was about painting the Remainers in the same light as Nazi sympathisers.
Who is running away and pulling apart? The UK is.
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I see that May is being conciliatory over Gibraltar, so I reckon she can see a way forward. EU regulations are incorporated into British law, so she can boast that all laws are British, while in fact, companies are shadowing EU regs, (they have no choice). Immigration will be allowed in certain sectors, and all the bluffs and threats (Gibraltar, cooperation over security, the EU bill, EU citizens), will be smoothed over. Her big problem might be the headbangers, but she will hope to seduce them with lots of rhetoric about glorious global Britain, and anyway, many of them are brain-dead. But remember Murphy's law.
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I see that May is being conciliatory over Gibraltar, so I reckon she can see a way forward. EU regulations are incorporated into British law, so she can boast that all laws are British, while in fact, companies are shadowing EU regs, (they have no choice). Immigration will be allowed in certain sectors, and all the bluffs and threats (Gibraltar, cooperation over security, the EU bill, EU citizens), will be smoothed over. Her big problem might be the headbangers, but she will hope to seduce them with lots of rhetoric about glorious global Britain, and anyway, many of them are brain-dead. But remember Murphy's law.
The headbangers time has to be over. Where are they going to go? what are they going to do?
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The headbangers time has to be over. Where are they going to go? what are they going to do?
May will hope to seduce them and placate them with lots of fiery rhetoric about red, white and blue Brexit. She also hopes to fool them, by doing a deal with the EU. But she needs them for the next election - after all, isn't that her raison d'etre?
One advantage for her is that they tend to be stupid and ignorant - they think that a third country is something in the World Cup. But she is also fearful of Dacre and Murdoch. There could be a ferocious revenge if they suspect that May is going all soft Brexit. These are the Blue Passport and Invade Spain boys.
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These are the Blue Passport and Invade Spain boys.
Who are only playing to the whims of their audience.
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The same is true for any group of people coming together as a country or union of countries. What keeps them together is a notion that the benefits of being together outweighs the downsides of having to compromise individual views on the basis of the collective.
And we see this with the UK or any other individual country just as much as with the EU. You'll note that (as examples) both the UK and the USA are split almost perfectly down the middle on some major political issues (see EU referendum and USA presidential election).
It doesn't mean that they are about to fall apart - sure there are clear existential threats to the UK currently, but I don't see these for either the USA nor the EU.
And that is true of Greece, is it, and many of the southern med members? I don't think so.
Can they leave? No because if they do the EU will give them a kicking, which sums up the EU's nasty attitude.
And then the east Europeans are not too happy with this liberal attitude of Merkel's.
The problem is is that the EU is too big and there are too many dissenting voices all pulling in different directions.
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44% of our exports and 53% of our imports are with other EU member states - hence my 'about 50%' statement.
Nope - you are comparing apples and pears - the actual figure of foreign trade from other EU member states as a proportion of their total foreign trade (i.e. the same comparison) is 8%.
It is pretty easy to see how you can cope with a bit of a hit on 8% of your trade, given that 92% is unaffected. Much harder to see how you can cope with a bit of a hit on touching 50% of your trade.
But that has to be looked in the round of the total trade internally and externally, and costs. Also, we can now go and do bespoke deals with others around the world.
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But that has to be looked in the round of the total trade internally and externally, and costs. Also, we can now go and do bespoke deals with others around the world.
Problem is that world trade is already hugely competitive, and being in the EU largely means we have been able to benefit from massively advantageous deals as everyone wants to trade with the single largest trading block on the planet.
So we have undoubtedly weakened our trading position with the EU which represents approx. 50% of our foreign trade, and it is, frankly, wishful thinking that on our own we will be able to broker better deals than we could within the EU.
And the killer issue is that once we aren't part of the EU will will lose all the trade deals already in place involving the EU - and don't forget the EU has more and better trade deals with the rest of the world than any other country (or group of countries) on the planet - and we are throwing that away.
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And that is true of Greece, is it, and many of the southern med members? I don't think so.
Do you really think that Greece, or Spain, or Portugal are in a worse position now than before they joined the EU. If you do, you really need to get your head examined.
Sure all are going through challenging economic times - just as, I should point out, is the UK. But all are economically wealthy beyond recognition compared to their pre-EU state, where they were all seen as quasi-third world economies. Further, of course, all are stable democracies, with strong protection of human rights, whilst pre to joining the EU they were all dictatorships.
And the same goes for the former communist states of eastern europe - their economies and their democratic credibility have improved beyond recognition due to their desire to join the EU, and the obligations that EU membership requires.
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Problem is that world trade is already hugely competitive, and being in the EU largely means we have been able to benefit from massively advantageous deals as everyone wants to trade with the single largest trading block on the planet.
So we have undoubtedly weakened our trading position with the EU which represents approx. 50% of our foreign trade, and it is, frankly, wishful thinking that on our own we will be able to broker better deals than we could within the EU.
And the killer issue is that once we aren't part of the EU will will lose all the trade deals already in place involving the EU - and don't forget the EU has more and better trade deals with the rest of the world than any other country (or group of countries) on the planet - and we are throwing that away.
We have countries queuing up to do a deal with us and most of the EU members are too poor, relatively, to be of any real use for the rest of the rich world. The EU may be 500 million people but half of those are either dirt shovellers or unemployed - more of a cost burden than an asset. Not exactly big spenders!!! And the Germans who are the riches in the EU are not big buyers but instead hoard their cast. Add to this that the EU is dying. Anyway, those EU trade deals to the outside world were fashioned more for the German and French markets and were a poor fit for ours.
We haven't weaken anything as our buying clout goes on high end goods which is only from a few EU members, so that that 8% of yours shouldn't be a function of the EU market but the countries we buy from hence my 17% - which is on a par with our trade with them. So if we lose the bigger, richer countries of the EU lose on a similar scale - and the BMW's of this world will nag their fellow German leaders to give us a good deal.
I grant you in the short term it will be bumpy but in the long term we will win out and the EU will, as I have said, gradually die. And as I said above those EU trade deals were a poor fit for us. The EU model is yesterdays news; a 20th century artefact.
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But that has to be looked in the round of the total trade internally and externally, and costs. Also, we can now go and do bespoke deals with others around the world.
The total of trade internally and externally is not 44%. When we leave the EU we will also leave the EFTA and we will also lose the benefit any trade deals the EU has already done. All told, about 60% of our trade will have to be done on less favourable terms than it is now.
Well done Brexiteers.
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We have countries queuing up to do a deal with us
Is it more countries than we are about to lose by leaving the EU?
and most of the EU members are too poor, relatively, to be of any real use for the rest of the rich world.
On the other hand the EU contains several of the World's largest economies.
The EU may be 500 million people but half of those are either dirt shovellers or unemployed - more of a cost burden than an asset.
But the EU is changing that. The rich economies like ours help the poor economies out. As they get more prosperous, it benefits the rich economies.
Add to this that the EU is dying.
This is just a mantra you keep telling yourself to convince yourself that we haven't just made a terrible mistake. Well we have.
Never mind the economy and trade, we have made enemies of our nearest neighbours. Think on that. Our former friends are our enemies now.
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Do you really think that Greece, or Spain, or Portugal are in a worse position now than before they joined the EU. If you do, you really need to get your head examined.
Sure all are going through challenging economic times - just as, I should point out, is the UK. But all are economically wealthy beyond recognition compared to their pre-EU state, where they were all seen as quasi-third world economies. Further, of course, all are stable democracies, with strong protection of human rights, whilst pre to joining the EU they were all dictatorships.
And the same goes for the former communist states of eastern europe - their economies and their democratic credibility have improved beyond recognition due to their desire to join the EU, and the obligations that EU membership requires.
What fucking planet are you living on??
Greece is a corpse!!! Their debt to GDP is something like 280%. The accepted alarm bells for this measure is 90%. The EU (Germans) are going to up this by imposing more bailouts, for a country which is bankrupt and can never, NEVER, pay off their debts. The last bailout sum (I think 65 billion) went onto Greece's public debt books and straight into the bank's hands - not a penny went to Greece. It is plainly a mechanism to keep bailing out the banks and keep those fuckheads afloat. Their assets are being privatized to the highest bidder where upon what they get for them goes straight to the banks. So the banks fund the buyouts of the assets and then gets the money back - in effect getting the assets for free. Last year all companies had to pay their upcoming tax bill a year in advance - this is just one measure that is screwing the country in its coffin. You talk of human rights, not in Greece they are losing their rights - at work etc. - and many are killing themselves because it has reached such a terrible level. When it has be sucked dry it will be spat out by the EU dragon and left to rot. Pretty much the way the Jews were treated in the concentration camps - flog'em until they drop. This is the wonderful utopian dream of the EU's ever closer union project - total shit, like the USSR.
And in all this Germany has profited from being in the Euro which in effect kept its goods cheap and they are the ones wielding the axe that is chopping Greece to bits. The fourth Reich lives.
And this will be the fate of Spain, Portugal etc., given time.
As for the Eastern Europeans they just jumped up out of a very hot fire into a frying pan heated by that same ideological, utopian flame of total central control. They are starting to push back now now that they see that Brussels is telling them what to do in almost all things as did Moscow did.
Do your fucking homework Davey!!!
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The total of trade internally and externally is not 44%. When we leave the EU we will also leave the EFTA and we will also lose the benefit any trade deals the EU has already done. All told, about 60% of our trade will have to be done on less favourable terms than it is now.
Well done Brexiteers.
You talk as though that is a fact when it is not, it is just you blowing off!!!
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Is it more countries than we are about to lose by leaving the EU?
On the other hand the EU contains several of the World's largest economies.
But the EU is changing that. The rich economies like ours help the poor economies out. As they get more prosperous, it benefits the rich economies.
This is just a mantra you keep telling yourself to convince yourself that we haven't just made a terrible mistake. Well we have.
Never mind the economy and trade, we have made enemies of our nearest neighbours. Think on that. Our former friends are our enemies now.
We can keep the trading arrangement with those countries that have a trade deal with the EU and just adjust them to be congenial for us and them; cutting out all the special arrangement that individual members have asked for and if necessary adding something to suit to replace some.
I've covered most of this post with Davey's posts.
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You talk as though that is a fact when it is not, it is just you blowing off!!!
No it is a fact.
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We can keep the trading arrangement with those countries that have a trade deal with the EU
How?
and just adjust them to be congenial for us and them;
And it will take years. The average time to do a trade deal is seven years.
I've covered most of this post with Davey's posts.
How do you feel about all our former friends who are now our enemies?
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How?
By talking to them. ::)
And it will take years. The average time to do a trade deal is seven years.
That is with the EU. When it is bilaterally between two countries it can be lass than two years; even shorter.
How do you feel about all our former friends who are now our enemies?
I think friends is rather a strong word. Sometimes tough love is the only way to get the right outcome.
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Greece is a corpse!!!
Was a military dictatorship before joining the EU - it is now a stable democracy.
And this will be the fate of Spain, Portugal etc., given time.
Were Fascist dictatorships before joining the EU - are now a stable democracies.
As for the Eastern Europeans ...
Were communist dictatorships before joining the EU - are now a stable democracies.
Do your fucking homework Davey!!!
I have - sadly you haven't. Without doubt, even taking into account current economic challenges, the economic state of Greece, Spain, Portugal and the Eastern European ex-communist countries are massively better now than they were before joining the EU. But there is an additional factors, more important still - that joining the EU has steered them from autocratic dictatorships that routinely abused the human rights of their own people, to stable democracies that uphold human rights.
I suggest you do your homework and learn a little history.
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Their debt to GDP is something like 280%.
Yup pretty horrific, but this issue isn't the level of debt but the ability and support to pay this down, and in that case Greece has plenty of support.
But is debt per GDP at those levels necessarily means that a country is doomed then I trust you recognise that the UK doesn't exist - because of course the UK has had debt per GDP at those levels twice in relatively recent historic times - and guess what those were preludes to what we often see as the most golden eras for the UK, namely the Victorian period and the 1960s.
Do your fucking homework Davey!!!
Again I think it is you that needs to do your homework and learn a little history.
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Was a military dictatorship before joining the EU - it is now a stable democracy.
Were Fascist dictatorships before joining the EU - are now a stable democracies.
Were communist dictatorships before joining the EU - are now a stable democracies.
I have - sadly you haven't. Without doubt, even taking into account current economic challenges, the economic state of Greece, Spain, Portugal and the Eastern European ex-communist countries are massively better now than they were before joining the EU. But there is an additional factors, more important still - that joining the EU has steered them from autocratic dictatorships that routinely abused the human rights of their own people, to stable democracies that uphold human rights.
I suggest you do your homework and learn a little history.
You have an odd idea of the meaning of the word stable.
The EU is an autocratic dictatorship. It is modelled on the USSR, but a slow clandestine walk to it to trap the people in it by deceitful manipulation and soft force.
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By talking to them.
I admire your optimism.
That is with the EU. When it is bilaterally between two countries it can be lass than two years; even shorter.
The figure I gave is the average for negotiating trade deals globally. Some take two years, some take much longer. On average it takes seven.
I think friends is rather a strong word. Sometimes tough love is the only way to get the right outcome.
There's nothing loving about what we have done to them. They were with us, now they are against us. This is almost the worst thing about the whole Brexit issue. We have destroyed good relationships with other nations. Why would anybody trust us when we cut and run and the first sign of difficulty. We now look to people elsewhere like a nation of small minded cowards.
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It is modelled on the USSR,
How do you expect to keep your credibility with such lies?
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The EU is an autocratic dictatorship. It is modelled on the USSR ...
How interesting.
I have heard this stated before. Could you please outline the precise way in which this is the case - if possible giving examples from both instances?
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The EU is an autocratic dictatorship. It is modelled on the USSR.
Really?
The EU consists of: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, UK.
Out of all on this list, only one is in the throws of trying to achieve an autocratic government.
I think you are confusing the EU with Eurovision!!
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I admire your optimism.
I don't admire your blindness.
The figure I gave is the average for negotiating trade deals globally. Some take two years, some take much longer. On average it takes seven.
That is for large institutions like the EU. For country to country it is normally less than 2 years.
There's nothing loving about what we have done to them. They were with us, now they are against us. This is almost the worst thing about the whole Brexit issue. We have destroyed good relationships with other nations. Why would anybody trust us when we cut and run and the first sign of difficulty. We now look to people elsewhere like a nation of small minded cowards.
If that is their attitude, the fragility of their so called friendship, then good riddens to them. Our tough love is to show them that their ideology is wrong; especially to the people of Europe.
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How do you expect to keep your credibility with such lies?
What lies?
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How interesting.
I have heard this stated before. Could you please outline the precise way in which this is the case - if possible giving examples from both instances?
It is simple. What do you understand by the EU's desire for ever closer union where all the power is situated in Brussels? Remembering that the EU is undemocratic.
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Really?
The EU consists of: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, UK.
Out of all on this list, only one is in the throws of trying to achieve an autocratic government.
I think you are confusing the EU with Eurovision!!
See my reply to HH.
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It is simple. What do you understand by the EU's desire for ever closer union where all the power is situated in Brussels? Remembering that the EU is undemocratic.
In what way is this unsubstantiated assertion an answer to my request from you? I would like you to educate me, not just repeat your rant.
Tell me, what do you actually know about the government structure and systems of the Soviet Union? How are they replicated in the EU?
Your precise words were The EU is an autocratic dictatorship. It is modelled on the USSR ...
Show me the models.
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In what way is this unsubstantiated assertion an answer to my request from you? I would like you to educate me, not just repeat your rant.
Tell me, what do you actually know about the government structure and systems of the Soviet Union? How are they replicated in the EU?
Your precise words were The EU is an autocratic dictatorship. It is modelled on the USSR ...
Show me the models.
All you have to do is look at the Lisbon Treaty. There's USSR 2.0.
USSR - controlled from Moscow by a group of elites who were unelected and ruled absolutely, imposing their wet ideological dream (i.e. political project) on the masses and being out of touch with reality, and thereby causing them a huge amount of misery and pain. They tried to control the price of "trackers". It by its nature failed and collapsed.
EU - As above, pretty much, especially their ever closer union project. Only they are in hock with the bankers/central banks who are trying to control the price of money. It is this over control of things that will be their down fall.
By the way this is how the US is run as well, and in fact it is their bankers that are running things globally.
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All you have to do is look at the Lisbon Treaty. There's USSR 2.0.
USSR - controlled from Moscow by a group of elites who were unelected and ruled absolutely, imposing their wet ideological dream (i.e. political project) on the masses and being out of touch with reality, and thereby causing them a huge amount of misery and pain. They tried to control the price of "trackers". It by its nature failed and collapsed.
EU - As above, pretty much, especially their ever closer union project. Only they are in hock with the bankers/central banks who are trying to control the price of money. It is this over control of things that will be their down fall.
By the way this is how the US is run as well, and in fact it is their bankers that are running things globally.
Do you make up this yourself, Jack, or does somebody write it for you?
You have never read the Lisbon Treaty and you do not know what it contains. Nor have you ever studied the Constitution of the USSR - I happened to study the 1936 version as an undergraduate (this was before the 1977 revision). Perhaps you should take the opportunity to do so.
I should warn you, though. It's harder going than the Beano.
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Do you make up this yourself, Jack, or does somebody write it for you?
You have never read the Lisbon Treaty and you do not know what it contains. Nor have you ever studied the Constitution of the USSR - I happened to study the 1936 version as an undergraduate (this was before the 1977 revision). Perhaps you should take the opportunity to do so.
I should warn you, though. It's harder going than the Beano.
I see you don't refute what I'm saying. ;D
You are talking about the detail there, am going on about the overall structures that look very similar and have similar effects on the populous . The Lisbon Treaty came out of the EU Constitution which was taking it towards, and to, their wet dream of ever closer union. People protested against this pushing of all powers to Brussels and so they changed a few full stops and claimed it was totally not this ever closer union.
If you can't see this it isn't my problem.