Sane. Great stuff. Can't wait for the next instalment.Michael Howard fell on his sword because he promised that he would if the Tories didn't win and he thought he would be too old by 2010.
I had Cameron falling on his sword because that seemed to be the done thing up until Jezzer in 2016/2017.
What stage or year would it have become obvious that the game was up for the coalition?
Anyway, I think an easier what if is David Miliband winning the Labour election in 2010. Labour would then have won in 2015 and still be in power now.
What stage or year would it have become obvious that the game was up for the coalition?They would have completed their term and Labour would have won a majority in 2015.
What if Thatcher had stayed on in 1990?I think they would have lost.
Tory majority slashed in 1992
They would have completed their term and Labour would have won a majority in 2015.When would that have been apparent though?
I think they would have lost.So you are arguing that a leftist could have got in or that Kinnock was sufficiently centrist by 1992?
So you are arguing that a leftist could have got in or that Kinnock was sufficiently centrist by 1992?No.
What if DAVID Miliband had won the election in 2015?The problem with that as a hypothetical is that you need to work backwards first. Does Dave win the vote against his brother? Or does Ed choke to death on a bacon sandwich and Dave pick up the reigns? Because understanding the logic there may well affect what sort of manifesto
The problem with that as a hypothetical is that you need to work backwards first. Does Dave win the vote against his brother? Or does Ed choke to death on a bacon sandwich and Dave pick up the reigns? Because understanding the logic there may well affect what sort of manifestoOK
Labour would have won
OK
Prior to 2010 leadership election Ed is pulling one of his weird faces and the wind is blowing the wrong way so it stays like it and Dave steps in.
I can't see how Britain could be anything like in the same condition as it is today.
Leaving aside Brexit, what significant differences were there in the Labour Manifesto in 2015, and given that D M is seen as more centrist than E M, it might be even less.
There wouldn't be austerity or anything like it since the society it infers is not commensurate with a blairite vision.Infers makes no sense there. Even were I to think you meant implies, then the sentence is ambiguous. The manifesto in 2015 supported austerity. If DM has been in charge then as already covered it seems likely that would have been even closer to the Tories. I would hope they might have stopped Universal Credit but not clear that would happen under DM.
Infers makes no sense there. Even were I to think you meant implies, then the sentence is ambiguous. The manifesto in 2015 supported austerity. If DM has been in charge then as already covered it seems likely that would have been even closer to the Tories. I would hope they might have stopped Universal Credit but not clear that would happen under DM.It is in the nature of Blairism to have matched the Tories in the early years or months.
No.I tend to agree. Would Kinnock's majority have been large or slender?
I'm arguing that Major's win was pretty slender as it was and that, with Thatcher still there, it would have swung the other way due to her personal unpopularity.
It is in the nature of Blairism to have matched the Tories in the early years or months.
Miliband would have then been keen to promote a progressive vision of Britain.
The closeness to toryism you propose is I move coloured by your SNP leanings.
With Brexit not even on the table and I will qualify that later, The west Lothian question would loom large since that was unfinished business from the Cameron era.
Osborne we can presume would have been gone with Cameron.
The burgeoning English national sentiment would be divided between a Conservative push to 'unionism'...code for more uniform control by Westminster supported by the leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson and creaking government in Scotland, Wales and Northern and withdrawal from Europe promoted by an increasingly popular UKIP under Nigel Farage.
With the right so split Miliband would be free to knock the edges of austerity and run a Blajorist Government.
No, the closeness to Toryism is influenced by the Labour Manifesto in 2015, as I have already pointed out. And to repeat given that EM is seen as more progressive than DM then it seems likely that a fairly feebly progressive document would be even less so under DM.The chief difference though is that IMV Cameron and Osborne never portrayed the UK other than a country that needed to scourge itself and one that was prone to self indulgence. Also a Miliband government never had the underlying contemporary conservative mission to annihilate workers rights.
The chief difference though is that IMV Cameron and Osborne never portrayed the UK other than a country that needed to scourge itself and one that was prone to self indulgence. Also a Miliband government never had the underlying contemporary conservative mission to annihilate workers rights.This doesn't really fit the facts. One of the great elisions that Cameron and Osbourne managed when elected was to hide that all the spending that Labour had done under Brown,they had essentially supported. They then didn't start austerity as that had been kicked off post crash when E&D were in the govt.
Moreover the country would not be mired in Brexit. One would suppose then that Labour would actually have worked on tax evasion, social inequality, house building, Northern powerhouse, stop polishing the turd of public transport etc. and NHS and care.
However let's go down your road of envisaging a David Miliband government identical in policy to the tories of today with the exception of Brexit.........One would still have to factor in that a) Miliband would be full of ideas or b) a newly leadered opposition would be coming up with vote snatching ideas and Miliband would be forced to counter them.
We could assume that Dave would have got in in the first place by being less prone to the press than ED.
This doesn't really fit the facts. One of the great elisions that Cameron and Osbourne managed when elected was to hide that all the spending that Labour had done under Brown,they had essentially supported. They then didn't start austerity as that had been kicked off post crash when E&D were in the govt.It is an essential prerequisite for any alternative history that at some point the ''facts'' are not supposed to fit!!! and that is taken as fact in my account.
I've already covered that I doubt Brexit would have happened with a Labour govt but if DM had been leader i wouldn't have been surprised if he had matched Cameron's policy on the EU . I am not sure why I would have to factor in DM being full of ideas when the evidence is that he isn't.
I'm not saying DM would necessarily have included a commitment to an EU refetendum, rather that I think it would have made it more likely as he would indulge in that most Blairite of tactics, triangulation. He would see it as a way of maintaining Labour voters who wanted out of the EU, with little actual cost because he wouldn't think he necessarily had to hold it.Many labour voters were motivated by the chance to stick one on Cameron. One imagines that would be sublimated in a vote for labour.
Oh and BTW, facts that are prior to the hypothetical, such as Osbourne's promises to match Labour's spending, are what you use to base arguments about the hypothetical on.
What about it? We stay. Problem?Read the Opening post stating the thread is about alternative timelines or histories. You will see that I proposed an alternative scenario and Nearly Sane has commented on whether the consequences I propose would have followed are realistic.
Read the Opening post stating the thread is about alternative timelines or histories.I did, hence my response.
I did, hence my response.Too brief to satisfy the spirit of the thread, then.
What if the referendum result had been 52% Remain 48% Leave ?Cameron still PM, Farage trying to tempt Rees Mogg to move to UKIP. Boris just back in cabinet as Culture Secretary.
Cameron still PM, Farage trying to tempt Rees Mogg to move to UKIP. Boris just back in cabinet as Culture Secretary.Agree.
Agree.I think some time around this year/next year Cameron would be standing down. Given that May may have stayed at Home Secretary then she would have just had to resign because of Windrush, then I suspect Osbourne would be lead candidate for Remain. I think there would still be a push for a Leave vote and I think that might be behind Rees Mogg.
Wasn't this the year Cameron was going to stand down?
I wonder who would have been in the frame? Would Osborne have survived the kicking the Lord's were starting to give him?
I think some time around this year/next year Cameron would be standing down. Given that May may have stayed at Home Secretary then she would have just had to resign because of Windrush, then I suspect Osbourne would be lead candidate for Remain. I think there would still be a push for a Leave vote and I think that might be behind Rees Mogg.In which case what aspects of a Brexit could be re sold after failure.
In which case what aspects of a Brexit could be re sold after failure.same reason there are still those arguing for Remain. It doesn't stop the argument.
What new turn could Rees Mogg give to a failed idea given that he is unable to give the turn when Brexit won.
same reason there are still those arguing for Remain. It doesn't stop the argument.One is tempted to ask what the reasons FOR brexit are at this stage, but that isn't in the spirit of this.
same reason there are still those arguing for Remain. It doesn't stop the argument.
What if Ed Miliband had won.
No Brexit?
No Farage?
No Mogg?
Johnson perhaps
No income tax?Next year we'll all be Miwionaires wodders.
No VAT?
No money back?
No guarantee?
Thought an alternative history thread might be a bit of fun and useful to take the heat out of the politics board as well as offering alternative worlds where normality was the norm rather than the real dystopia we find ourselves in.
We could do
What if John Major had won in 1997
What if Wizard of Oz had been filmed as a cartoon
What if Reg Varney had landed the part of James Bond
What if the world was flat etc.
To kick off what if Gordon Brown had called that election in 2007?
David Cameron would be out of a job
Theresa May beats George Osborne in a leadership contest
Theresa May narrowly defeats AlanJohnson in 2012 election but her poll plummets after awkward
Performance in TV debate.
May refuses referendum in Scotland
Introduces austerity in U.K.
Growth of UKIP
2017 election May narrowly defeats Labour in coalition with UKIPS two MPs with promise of referendum on Europe.Last Tory MP dismissed from Scotland.
Looking back us useless at this stage.
Learning from past mistakes is good but 'what if' is futile. We can't go back in time.
Learning from past mistakes is good but 'what if' is futile. We can't go back in time.We are making an excellent job as a country of going back to the 19th century.
We are making an excellent job as a country of going back to the 19th century.