Religion and Ethics Forum
General Category => Politics & Current Affairs => Topic started by: Nearly Sane on May 01, 2020, 06:37:10 PM
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New Scottish Parliament Constituency vote poll, Panelbase 24-27 Apr (changes vs 29 Nov - 3 Dec); SNP - 54% (+8) Con - 23% (-3) Lab - 12% (-2) LD - 8% (-3) Grn - 2% (+1)
Scottish Parliament List vote poll, Panelbase 24-27 Apr (changes vs 29 Nov - 3 Dec); SNP - 45% (+8) Con - 23% (-2) Lab - 12% (-2) Grn - 8% (nc) LD - 7% (-3)
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New Scottish Parliament Constituency vote poll, Panelbase 24-27 Apr (changes vs 29 Nov - 3 Dec); SNP - 54% (+8) Con - 23% (-3) Lab - 12% (-2) LD - 8% (-3) Grn - 2% (+1)
Scottish Parliament List vote poll, Panelbase 24-27 Apr (changes vs 29 Nov - 3 Dec); SNP - 45% (+8) Con - 23% (-2) Lab - 12% (-2) Grn - 8% (nc) LD - 7% (-3)
Wonder whether the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon are benefiting from the same kind of 'support the government in a crisis' approach that seems to be benefiting Boris/Tories across the UK for Westminster.
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I suspect it might be more the case of continued confidence in an SNP government that already had strong support and has a credible leader, that the SNP are opposed to Brexit, as are the majority of the Scottish electorate, and where the three main opposition parties in Scotland have even less credibility than previously.
The Tories haven't helped themselves in Scotland by electing the laughable Jackson Carlaw as their leader and Alister Jack, the so-called Scottish Secretary, along with the UK Tory government in general, are about as inviting a prospect as finding the remains of a week-old fish supper that had fallen out of the bin and has now started to smell. The less said about Scottish Labour the better, since it is unkind to mock the afflicted.
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Wonder whether the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon are benefiting from the same kind of 'support the government in a crisis' approach that seems to be benefiting Boris/Tories across the UK for Westminster.
Almost certainly. It's still quite extraordinary numbers.
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I suspect it might be more the case of continued confidence in an SNP government that already had strong support and has a credible leader, that the SNP are opposed to Brexit, as are the majority of the Scottish electorate, and where the three main opposition parties in Scotland have even less credibility than previously.
The Tories haven't helped themselves in Scotland by electing the laughable Jackson Carlaw as their leader and Alister Jack, the so-called Scottish Secretary, along with the UK Tory government in general, are about as inviting a prospect as finding the remains of a week-old fish supper that had fallen out of the bin and has now started to smell. The less said about Scottish Labour the better, since it is unkind to mock the afflicted.
It’s almost certainly a crisis bump. Even Trump got one of those.
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Yes, there may be an element of crisis bump, but the three main opposition parties are incredibly weak, the Tories losing lots of support in their gfishing community heartland, and Labour electing increasingly irrelevent figures as leaders. Indeed, I'm saddened by the latter's destruction in Scotland. The nation was once a virtual one-party state with every council and almost every constituency being solid red. My own area used to weigh, rather than count the Labour vote, and I knew that my vote in that ballot box counted for nothing. Now the local community council, local authority, Scots , Wezstminster and European parliaments have no Labour majorities 0 indeed, Labout is a distant third place in local authority, Holyrood and Westminster. Without a dramatic recovery here in Scotland, the English party may find it very hard to unseat Johnson at the next Westminster poll.
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The Labour party needs an English revival more than a Scottish one, and to achieve that may mean that any Scottish revival will be less likely. The odd thing is that in many ways these figures almost don't matter. Covid 19 continues to be the main game, and once it quietens then Brexit rises like the beast from 20,000 fathoms, and I am not sure what the election next year will feel like, or what people will care about.
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Almost certainly. It's still quite extraordinary numbers.
Perhaps, but I do think that the majority anti-Brexit/pro-EU opinion here is a core factor in the the SNP's favour, and as far as I can see the UK government's handling of the Coronavirus situation hasn't exactly shown Johnson and the Tories in a better light than our First Minister, as a recent poll confirms.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-backed-majority-scots-21960603
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More polling and a review of what it means
http://ballotbox.scot/panelbase-1st-5th-june-2020
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Analysis of the latest - and twenty second consecutive - poll putting independence on top
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19119352.latest-poll-shows-warning-signs-snp-dig-deeper/?fbclid=IwAR2J3rPS55oFIkAT2Fi263sqUWqesYIVCBk4cUyS39Firs1mF1gb4l6ISjo
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Scottish parliament voting intention(s): Constituency: SNP: 52% (-3) CON: 23% (+1) LAB: 15% (+1) LDEM: 5% (-1) GRN: 3% (+2) List: SNP: 47% (-) CON: 22% (-) LAB: 14% (-2) GRN: 8% (+1) LDEM: 6% (-) via
@IpsosMORI
, 15 - 21 Feb Chgs. w/ Nov
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New Scottish Parliament poll, ComRes 5 - 10 Mar (changes vs 4 - 9 Feb) List: SNP ~ 40% (-3) Con ~ 24% (+3) Lab ~ 18% (nc) Grn ~ 10% (nc) LD ~ 6% (nc) Constituency: SNP ~ 48% (-6) Con ~ 23% (nc) Lab ~ 20% (+4) LD ~ 8% (+3)
And some analysis
https://archive.ph/yZN8D
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The odd thing about this poll is that the last time Opinium did one was 2016 and it's pretty much the same numbers
New Scottish Parliament poll, Opinium 11 - 16 Mar (changes vs 2016): List: SNP ~ 42% (nc) Con ~ 22% (-1) Lab ~ 19% (nc) Grn ~ 7% (nc) LD ~ 5% (nc) AFU ~ 2% (+2) SSP ~ 1% (nc) RUK ~ 1% (+1) Constituency: SNP ~ 46% (-1) Con ~ 24% (+2) Lab ~ 20% (-3) LD ~ 6% (-2) Grn ~ 4% (+3)
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Big numbers for SNP - would likely have a majority
New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 11 - 18 Mar (changes vs 9 - 12 Mar); List: SNP ~ 39% (nc) Lab ~ 20% (nc) Con ~ 19% (-2) Grn ~ 11% (+1) LD ~ 7% (-1) Constituency: SNP ~ 50% (+4) Con ~ 21% (nc) Lab ~ 20% (-3) LD ~ 8% (nc) Grn ~ 1% (+1)
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Big numbers for SNP - would likely have a majority
New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 11 - 18 Mar (changes vs 9 - 12 Mar); List: SNP ~ 39% (nc) Lab ~ 20% (nc) Con ~ 19% (-2) Grn ~ 11% (+1) LD ~ 7% (-1) Constituency: SNP ~ 50% (+4) Con ~ 21% (nc) Lab ~ 20% (-3) LD ~ 8% (nc) Grn ~ 1% (+1)
Projection based on those figures
New polling analysis and projection, BMG 16th - 19th of March 2021 Holyrood seats projection: SNP ~ 66 Conservative ~ 26 Labour ~ 19 Green ~ 10 Lib Dem ~ 8
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Big numbers for SNP - would likely have a majority
New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 11 - 18 Mar (changes vs 9 - 12 Mar); List: SNP ~ 39% (nc) Lab ~ 20% (nc) Con ~ 19% (-2) Grn ~ 11% (+1) LD ~ 7% (-1) Constituency: SNP ~ 50% (+4) Con ~ 21% (nc) Lab ~ 20% (-3) LD ~ 8% (nc) Grn ~ 1% (+1)
This appears to be after much of the Salmond inquiry stushie.
It seems we're getting back to normal.
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This one looks too good to be true, but it was commissioned by Express newspapers, so......
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19193493.snp-projected-win-71-holyrood-seats-gives-yes-lead-indyref2/?fbclid=IwAR1cEKBJlmXcWbA1IgFZ9sZjF8-lItY0J0D7-4nKqm-l_NLYX0aLOhOv2CQ
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This one looks too good to be true, but it was commissioned by Express newspapers, so......
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19193493.snp-projected-win-71-holyrood-seats-gives-yes-lead-indyref2/?fbclid=IwAR1cEKBJlmXcWbA1IgFZ9sZjF8-lItY0J0D7-4nKqm-l_NLYX0aLOhOv2CQ
It also seems an outlier by a distance.
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https://news.stv.tv/politics/snp-still-on-course-for-holyrood-majority-stv-poll?top&fbclid=IwAR1EW6_5Wq3yJhQisoWZPsAQQ-fDEPwc4PfzJ88eAHIpbMx6DT7h_eEhy6M