Religion and Ethics Forum
General Category => Politics & Current Affairs => Topic started by: Nearly Sane on May 10, 2021, 12:52:11 PM
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Could be very interesting given events over last few years.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9561631/Labours-new-campaigns-chief-warns-important-Batley-Spen-election.html
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Jo Cox's sister, Kim Leadbeater, chosen as Labour candidate.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57205425
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Let's hope she's a Torybeater!
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Let's hope she's a Torybeater!
Sorry, but I do not condone physical violence towards anybody, not even Tories.
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Jayda Fransen standing in Batley and Spen.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9641219/By-election-Jo-Coxs-former-constituency-contested-ex-Britain-deputy-Jayda-Fransen.html
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Jayda Fransen standing in Batley and Spen.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9641219/By-election-Jo-Coxs-former-constituency-contested-ex-Britain-deputy-Jayda-Fransen.html
Hopefully, she'll take votes from the Tories, though she may take some Labour votes as well. I don't suppose she'll get many votes overall.
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Labour hold (just)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57691543
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Labour hold (just)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57691543
Given that the media narrative was all about how much the Tories would win by, rather than whether they would win, then this seems to be a sizeable boost to Labour and a blow to the Tories.
The Tories have now failed to win two by-elections where they were overwhelming favourites right up to polling day.
I think in B&S the Tories were approx. 80% favourites in the betting to win going into polling day. In Chesham and Amersham the Tories were even greater favourites in the betting running up to the polling.
Something going on?
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Given that the media narrative was all about how much the Tories would win by, rather than whether they would win, then this seems to be a sizeable boost to Labour and a blow to the Tories.
The Tories have now failed to win two by-elections where they were overwhelming favourites right up to polling day.
I think in B&S the Tories were approx. 80% favourites in the betting to win going into polling day. In Chesham and Amersham the Tories were even greater favourites in the betting running up to the polling.
Something going on?
Possibly.
It strikes me that it is actually a better result than it sounds due to the effect that Galloway had on the by-election, it is likely that a fair % of those 8000 votes would return to Labour at a GE.
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Possibly.
It strikes me that it is actually a better result than it sounds due to the effect that Galloway had on the by-election, it is likely that a fair % of those 8000 votes would return to Labour at a GE.
Yes I agree - if Labour are winning (just) in this by-election, they are likely to hold it by a much greater margin in a general election.
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Given that the media narrative was all about how much the Tories would win by, rather than whether they would win, then this seems to be a sizeable boost to Labour and a blow to the Tories.
The Tories have now failed to win two by-elections where they were overwhelming favourites right up to polling day.
I think in B&S the Tories were approx. 80% favourites in the betting to win going into polling day. In Chesham and Amersham the Tories were even greater favourites in the betting running up to the polling.
Something going on?
Clearly there's lots going on. There is obviously at least some idea of a 'progressive alliance' at least with voters.
Though I think we should add Hartlepool into the mix in trying to understand things because no matter what over the three by elections in England this year, it is not a good story for Labour. Big loss in Hartlepool, worst ever by election in C&A, and a hold in B&S with a much reduced majority.
B&S has its own wrinkle in the grifting shyster that is Galloway. Particularly in that the polling that suggesting a Tory win, he was on 6% of the vote, and he actually got 20%. That looks like he took votes from both the Tories and Labour, and I don't think it's easy to say that it's mainly Labour votes, or that those which might once been Labour will go back to Labour since Hartlepool is much more like B&S than C&A is.
Also for B&S, there seems likely to have been a Hancock factor. Where those votes that were Hancocked went it's difficult to say.
I have to say I am very glad no matter what that Kim Leadbeater and Labour won here. Had she/they lost then it really would have been disastrous for opposition to the Tory govt. It means that we have probably avoided another leadership contest in Labour though Starmer needs to get better at having an effect quickly.
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I should of course add in the other by election where Labour did increase vote share, Airdrie and Shotts. That seems to be a result of a small amount of 'Unionist' tactical voting, and while it reduced the SNP majority, the SNP share of the vote was up as well.
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I have to say I am very glad no matter what that Kim Leadbeater and Labour won here. Had she/they lost then it really would have been disastrous for opposition to the Tory govt. It means that we have probably avoided another leadership contest in Labour though Starmer needs to get better at having an effect quickly.
Unfortunately, there are some Labour supporters and those on the left more generally who would really have preferred a Labour defeat. They see Starmer as a corporatist (& therefore not a true "Socialist"), right wing figure who is leading Labour away from the true messiah (JC).
I had several FB acquaintances posting yesterday that Starmer was a "dead man walking" and similar statements. They were clearly expecting a defeat. I'm glad to see them disabused of that notion.
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I should of course add in the other by election where Labour did increase vote share, Airdrie and Shotts. That seems to be a result of a small amount of 'Unionist' tactical voting, and while it reduced the SNP majority, the SNP share of the vote was up as well.
From the figures it certainly looks like a switch from the Tories and LD benefitted Labour.
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Unfortunately, there are some Labour supporters and those on the left more generally who would really have preferred a Labour defeat. They see Starmer as a corporatist (& therefore not a true "Socialist"), right wing figure who is leading Labour away from the true messiah (JC).
I had several FB acquaintances posting yesterday that Starmer was a "dead man walking" and similar statements. They were clearly expecting a defeat. I'm glad to see them disabused of that notion.
Thing is though it's not just the JC disciples that are honing their knives. There is also the King in the North.
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-keir-starmers-leadership-in-turmoil-as-poll-finds-69-of-members-would-prefer-andy-burnham-in-charge-12345377
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Thing is though it's not just the JC disciples that are honing their knives. There is also the King in the Nort.
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-keir-starmers-leadership-in-turmoil-as-poll-finds-69-of-members-would-prefer-andy-burnham-in-charge-12345377
Oh yes. I'm not down playing the enormity of the challenge facing Starmer, or indeed his rather lacklustre performance thus far. I just got a brief moment of pleasure from seeing these doomsters being proved wrong. Timing isn't on Burnham's side currently though.
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Oh yes. I'm not down playing the enormity of the challenge facing Starmer, or indeed his rather lacklustre performance thus far. I just got a brief moment of pleasure from seeing these doomsters being proved wrong. Timing isn't on Burnham's side currently though.
I would be looking closely at the seats in and around Manchester where the Labour MP might be reasonably old, or be persuaded that there are health issues, or that might be persuaded that they want to spend more time with their families around mid to late 2023
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I would be looking closely at the seats in and around Manchester where the Labour MP might be reasonably old, or be persuaded that there are health issues, or that might be persuaded that they want to spend more time with their families around mid to late 2023
Graham Stringer is 71
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I would be looking closely at the seats in and around Manchester where the Labour MP might be reasonably old, or be persuaded that there are health issues, or that might be persuaded that they want to spend more time with their families around mid to late 2023
I think Johnson's aiming for earlier than that, though. He knows that by 2024 Brexit and Covid will be making themselves felt fiscally. He potentially has 10 extra seats due to boundary changes that are easily winnable. He will want to go earlier.
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I think Johnson's aiming for earlier than that, though. He knows that by 2024 Brexit and Covid will be making themselves felt fiscally. He potentially has 10 extra seats due to boundary changes that are easily winnable. He will want to go earlier.
Yes, I fear you are right.
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And if Johnson does go early, I then expect him to resign mid term.
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Reasonable bit of analysis
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2021/07/labour-held-batley-and-spen-against-odds-attracting-new-voters
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Marina Hyde on Galloway:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/02/george-galloway-batley-and-spen-byelection?