Will corona reverse globalization?

[Sriram]

Hi everyone,

Globalization has been the trend for the past several decades. This could reverse in the coming years in the aftermath of the coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52104978

*****************

Globalisation has been one of the buzzwords of the past 25 years.

It may seem a rather strange concept, since any economic historian will tell you that people have been trading across vast distances for centuries, if not millennia.

You only have to look at the medieval spice trade, or the East India Company, to know that. But globalisation is really about the scale and speed of international business, which has exploded in the past few decades to unprecedented levels.

Easier travel, the world wide web, the end of the Cold War, trade deals, and new, rapidly developing economies, have all combined to create a system that is much more dependent now on what is happening on the other side of the world than it ever was.

Which is why the spread of coronavirus, or Covid-19 to be specific, has had such an immediate economic effect.

Will globalisation be reversed? Probably not, it is too important an economic development for that to happen, but it could well be slowed down.

The bigger question is, however, have we learnt the lessons of this crisis? Will we learn to spot, control and regulate the risks that seem to be an integral part of globalisation? Because the cooperation and leadership necessary to make that happen seem to be in short supply.

******************

The author is mainly talking of economic issues....but I think even culturally and in terms of shifting ones home from one country to another, there will be a slowdown  if not a reversal.

Uncertainty and doubt will be the dominant sentiments for many years to come.

Cheers.

Sriram 

[Gordon]

It's probably too early to say: there are already short-term changes but time will tell as regards whether these become permanent.

I think the future of air travel is one aspect, in that if a number or airlines simply don't survive then that will be a constraint that could reduce, say, continued leisure flying, and therefore the economy of areas dependent on tourism. Moreover, any substantial evidence of reduced pollution as air travel dries up could I suppose have policy implications as regards encouraging the resumption of air travel back to where it was.

Another aspect could be that if the shift to home working for those with suitable internet facilities works out well over then current crises then surely this would support the case for more investment in broadband, so that the likes of the Zoom video-conferencing is practical enough to be routine for those working from home, at the expense of travel infrastructure projects if there was reduced work-related commuting (such as driving) and demand fro public transport. It would also mean that international business could continue, but perhaps with less need for 'business class' seats.

Or something like that.   

[Nearly Sane]

I think it underlines the need for more globalization not less. We need to work on how we respond to such issues in a much more integrated way rather than some fantasy of some ruralalised utopia.

[Walter]

It's probably too early to say: there are already short-term changes but time will tell as regards whether these become permanent.

I think the future of air travel is one aspect, in that if a number or airlines simply don't survive then that will be a constraint that could reduce, say, continued leisure flying, and therefore the economy of areas dependent on tourism. Moreover, any substantial evidence of reduced pollution as air travel dries up could I suppose have policy implications as regards encouraging the resumption of air travel back to where it was.

Another aspect could be that if the shift to home working for those with suitable internet facilities works out well over then current crises then surely this would support the case for more investment in broadband, so that the likes of the Zoom video-conferencing is practical enough to be routine for those working from home, at the expense of travel infrastructure projects if there was reduced work-related commuting (such as driving) and demand fro public transport. It would also mean that international business could continue, but perhaps with less need for 'business class' seats.

Or something like that.   

what Gordon said 

[Sriram]

Do you think the corona crisis will encourage vegetarianism in the long term....?

[Roses]

It's probably too early to say: there are already short-term changes but time will tell as regards whether these become permanent.

I think the future of air travel is one aspect, in that if a number or airlines simply don't survive then that will be a constraint that could reduce, say, continued leisure flying, and therefore the economy of areas dependent on tourism. Moreover, any substantial evidence of reduced pollution as air travel dries up could I suppose have policy implications as regards encouraging the resumption of air travel back to where it was.

Another aspect could be that if the shift to home working for those with suitable internet facilities works out well over then current crises then surely this would support the case for more investment in broadband, so that the likes of the Zoom video-conferencing is practical enough to be routine for those working from home, at the expense of travel infrastructure projects if there was reduced work-related commuting (such as driving) and demand fro public transport. It would also mean that international business could continue, but perhaps with less need for 'business class' seats.

Or something like that.   

Both our sons-in-law have jobs where working at home is possible so they are able to carry with their work.

[Roses]

Do you think the corona crisis will encourage vegetarianism in the long term....?

Why would that be, I don't see the connection?

[Nearly Sane]

Why would that be, I don't see the connection?

Because it supposedly came from eating bats

[jeremyp]

Will corona reverse globalization?

Betteridge's Law comes into play here. The answer is no.

The advantages of a global economy in terms of efficiency and money making potential are too strong for a virus to stop globalisation from happening - unless the virus causes the complete collapse of civilisation.

Global travel might be curtailed for a while, but in five years time, I predict that things will be pretty much as you were.

[jeremyp]

Because it supposedly came from eating bats

Yes. I have resolved to never eat another bat again in my entire life. That includes things made from bats like battenburgh cake and battery acid.

[Walter]

Yes. I have resolved to never eat another bat again in my entire life. That includes things made from bats like battenburgh cake and battery acid.

just look at Ozzy Osbourne,  that's what eating bats does for ya!

[ad_orientem]

Because it supposedly came from eating bats

No, that's not the hypothesis. Yes, bats are the natural reservoir for the virus but it's believed that it first moved on to an intermediate host and then passed on to humans. The WHO still believes that the most probable theory is that it passed to humans via the live animal trade taking place in the fish market in Wuhan.

[Roses]

Because it supposedly came from eating bats

That is TERRIBLE, all bat farms here in the UK should be closed down immediately!

[Walter]

Because it supposedly came from eating bats

table tennis has now been banned in  China

[Steve H]

That is TERRIBLE, all bat farms here in the UK should be closed down immediately!

Bat farms? What bat farms? Have you gone completely batty (as opposed to your previous 90% batty)?

[Roses]

table tennis has now been banned in  China

  Oh dear, I wasn't too bad at table tennis. I challenged one of my sisters to a game on my 60th birthday, she was exceptionally good at table tennis, and played in a team as a young person. I WON!!!!! She wasn't happy I wouldn't give her a re-match, I thought it was best to quit whilst I was ahead.

[Roses]

Bat farms? What bat farms? Have you gone completely batty (as opposed to your previous 90% batty)?

Haven't you got a bat farm near you? I was thinking you might have been brought up on one, batty being your middle name!

And you have accused me of not having a sense of humour!

[Walter]

Oh dear, I wasn't too bad at table tennis. I challenged one of my sisters to a game on my 60th birthday, she was exceptionally good at table tennis, and played in a team as a young person. I WON!!!!! She wasn't happy I wouldn't give her a re-match, I thought it was best to quit whilst I was ahead.

Lr

it was a gag but it requires you to make a connection 

[Roses]

Lr

it was a gag but it requires you to make a connection 

Ehhhhhhhhhhh?

[Sriram]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/australian-prime-minister-scott-morrison-urges-who-un-to-act-against-chinas-wet-markets-2205499?pfrom=home-topstories

*********
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Friday urged the WHO and the UN to act against China's wet markets, like the one where the deadly coronavirus is thought to have originated, as they pose "great risks" to the health and wellbeing of the rest of the world.
A wet market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan is believed to be the source of the coronavirus pandemic that began in December last year, crossing from animals to humans.

The number of cases from the virus has reached one million worldwide and more than 51,000 deaths have been reported across more than 175 countries and territories, according to the Johns Hopkins University tally.

Stating that China-based "Wet markets were a very real and significant problem wherever they exist," Scott Morrison in an interview to a news channel on Thursday, said "this virus started in China and went round the world. And that's how it started."
**********

[Udayana]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/australian-prime-minister-scott-morrison-urges-who-un-to-act-against-chinas-wet-markets-2205499?pfrom=home-topstories

..

Don't worry, they are also providing a cure:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-china-treatment-bear-bile-cages-animals-asia-a9429116.html

But in a list of recommended treatments for Covid-19, the country’s National Health Commission promotes injections of a “traditional medicine” treatment containing bear bile.

An estimated 12,000 bears are held in captivity on farms and “milked” regularly for their bile in China and Vietnam.

According to charity Animals Asia, the cages in China are sometimes so small that the bears are unable to turn around or stand on all fours. Some are put into cages as cubs and never leave them. They may grow too large to fit through the cage door or remain stunted.

“Bears may be kept caged like this for up to 30 years. This has a terrible effect on the physical and mental wellbeing,” the group says.

The animals’ bile – a digestive fluid produced by the liver and stored in the gallbladder – is harvested through invasive surgery, which causes “severe suffering, pain and infection.”

Also, lots of kit to ease the problem:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-chinese-billionaire-donates-medical-supplies-to-nhs-11967980

The founder of JD.com, China's biggest retailer, is donating millions of items of medical equipment to the NHS as some prominent Chinese companies see the coronavirus pandemic as a way to burnish their reputations in key export markets.

Sky News has learnt that Richard Liu and his wife Nancy have been in discussions with the government and NHS executives about a shipment comprising 50 ventilators, five million medical masks and 600,000 pairs of surgical gloves, medical safety goggles and protective gowns.

The equipment is scheduled to arrive in the UK next week.

So we can all relax...