Author Topic: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?  (Read 7758 times)

L.A.

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #25 on: July 04, 2016, 04:10:19 PM »
From what I've read (mostly in the Times) Johnson effectively knifed himself by not concentrating on the job in hand.

Gove had arranged a deal whereby Leadson was to back Johnson and have a senior cabinet post if he won, but Johnson did not manage to give her the confirmation she wanted in time. She decided to stand herself. This caused Gove to rethink his support of Johnson.

Essentially, Gove was working on getting backing for Johnson to win against May, but Johnson was useless at communicating with this "team", offering the same jobs to multiple people and so on. Gove decided that he would not be competent at managing them as leader. When he decided to stand most of those he had recruited switched to back him, leaving Johnson without enough support to continue.

There is something quite poetic in that description   :)

P.S. Rather reminiscent of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66cxc9emQgY
http://www.metrolyrics.com/paddys-sick-note-lyrics-dubliners.html
« Last Edit: July 04, 2016, 04:39:32 PM by L.A. »
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jakswan

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #26 on: July 04, 2016, 07:13:07 PM »
Oh come on, that was just his excuse for ignoring people who actually know what they are talking about.

Doctors don't always get it right but when you are ill do you go to a doctor or Nigel Farage? Scientists don't always get it right but would you trust Deepak Chopra or Brian Cox on quantum mechanics?

Economics isn't a science. Experts said Belgium would beat Wales but what do you know they didn't.

These experts were wrong on the ERM, the Euro, a track record of being wrong, perfectly rational to discount their views.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
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Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #27 on: July 04, 2016, 07:17:48 PM »
Economics isn't a science. Experts said Belgium would beat Wales but what do you know they didn't.

These experts were wrong on the ERM, the Euro, a track record of being wrong, perfectly rational to discount their views.
Then why does Andrea make such a deal about being an expert Banker?.....and why should we trust her.

Gordon Brown was right on the Euro. Vote leave said lots of things and were proved wrong.

I never thought anyone would take Spike Milligan when he said
don't have a plan that way nothing can go wrong but what did Brextwit go and do?

L.A.

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #28 on: July 04, 2016, 07:19:09 PM »
Economics isn't a science. Experts said Belgium would beat Wales but what do you know they didn't.

These experts were wrong on the ERM, the Euro, a track record of being wrong, perfectly rational to discount their views.

And of course, all the experts turned out to be quite wrong about effect of Brexit on the Pound and Stock Market didn't they . . . . . .  ::)
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Nearly Sane

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #29 on: July 04, 2016, 07:25:30 PM »
Stock market is doing good

Nearly Sane

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #30 on: July 04, 2016, 07:26:40 PM »
Economics isn't a science. Experts said Belgium would beat Wales but what do you know they didn't.

These experts were wrong on the ERM, the Euro, a track record of being wrong, perfectly rational to discount their views.
bookmaking isn't a science. I take it you think you can there is no expertise there?

jeremyp

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #31 on: July 04, 2016, 11:17:12 PM »
Economics isn't a science.
Nobody said it was. Neither is medicine as it happens.

Quote
Experts said Belgium would beat Wales but what do you know they didn't.
This is not a game of football. 

Quote
These experts were wrong on the ERM, the Euro, a track record of being wrong, perfectly rational to discount their views.
All of them? I hardly think so.
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jakswan

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #32 on: July 05, 2016, 10:05:53 AM »
Nobody said it was. Neither is medicine as it happens.
This is not a game of football. 
All of them? I hardly think so.

Mind-reading isn't a science either, I'm telling you why I discounted their views, for much the same reasons as Gove, your mind reading skills tell me we did it for different reasons.
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Udayana

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #33 on: July 05, 2016, 11:38:04 AM »
There is something quite poetic in that description   :)

P.S. Rather reminiscent of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66cxc9emQgY
http://www.metrolyrics.com/paddys-sick-note-lyrics-dubliners.html

See that Boris is now trying to climb up again - on Leadsom's back  ;D
Ah, but I was so much older then ... I'm younger than that now

Nearly Sane

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #34 on: July 05, 2016, 12:32:51 PM »
Mind-reading isn't a science either, I'm telling you why I discounted their views, for much the same reasons as Gove, your mind reading skills tell me we did it for different reasons.
so medicine and mind reading are equivalents for you? The approach you are taking is very reminiscent of Hope's use of relativism. If experts are to bee ignored in non scientific fields like medicine and economics , what is your methodology for working out what is correct?

jakswan

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #35 on: July 05, 2016, 12:40:58 PM »
so medicine and mind reading are equivalents for you? The approach you are taking is very reminiscent of Hope's use of relativism. If experts are to bee ignored in non scientific fields like medicine and economics , what is your methodology for working out what is correct?

Track record, if they made wrong predictions about negative effects of the ERM / Euro then we can be more skeptical of the predictions of about leaving the EU.

Not that this is really what is debated, Gove states he discounted a view from some organisations on an issue because of their track record. Davey asserts Gove didn't discount their view for reasons stated but for other reasons, he can't possibly know that unless he is able to read minds.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #36 on: July 05, 2016, 12:53:10 PM »
Track record, if they made wrong predictions about negative effects of the ERM / Euro then we can be more skeptical of the predictions of about leaving the EU.

Not that this is really what is debated, Gove states he discounted a view from some organisations on an issue because of their track record. Davey asserts Gove didn't discount their view for reasons stated but for other reasons, he can't possibly know that unless he is able to read minds.

So you had analysed the track record of all the experts quoted over a large number of predictions looking at whether they were better than average, and therefore aren't saying as Gove did that we don't need experts but that we need better experts? And having done that analysis you will be able to say who these better experts.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #37 on: July 05, 2016, 12:58:12 PM »
Track record, if they made wrong predictions about negative effects of the ERM / Euro then we can be more skeptical of the predictions of about leaving the EU.

Not that this is really what is debated, Gove states he discounted a view from some organisations on an issue because of their track record. Davey asserts Gove didn't discount their view for reasons stated but for other reasons, he can't possibly know that unless he is able to read minds.
Wrong Gove said we've had enough of experts - not just organisations that might have made some wrong calls in the past, but experts in general.

And you are wrong certainly on the Euro - don't forget that one of the key reasons why we didn't proceed with joining the Euro was opposition from the Treasury. So if joining the Euro would, with hindsight, have been the wrong decision then the Treasury called this absolutely right. So why was Gove dismissing the Treasury's view on Brexit then if he was only pointing to organisations that got it wrong in the past.

The reality is that the experts were pretty well unanimous, and opposed to Gove's view - hence he tried to make the case that we should dismiss experts.

But anyhow we are now in a period where we can see whether the experts or Gove (it will be all sunny and lovely) is right. So far looks like the experts have it. Indeed all of the predictions of what would happen immediately post-brexit are indeed happening. They were right all along.

jakswan

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #38 on: July 05, 2016, 01:04:39 PM »
Wrong Gove said we've had enough of experts - not just organisations that might have made some wrong calls in the past, but experts in general.

Citation? I don't think this is correct.

Quote
And you are wrong certainly on the Euro - don't forget that one of the key reasons why we didn't proceed with joining the Euro was opposition from the Treasury. So if joining the Euro would, with hindsight, have been the wrong decision then the Treasury called this absolutely right. So why was Gove dismissing the Treasury's view on Brexit then if he was only pointing to organisations that got it wrong in the past.

I think he discounted the views in a Sky interview and did not mention the treasury.

Quote
The reality is that the experts were pretty well unanimous, and opposed to Gove's view - hence he tried to make the case that we should dismiss experts.

Not really e.g. Digby Jones is an expert.

Quote
But anyhow we are now in a period where we can see whether the experts or Gove (it will be all sunny and lovely) is right. So far looks like the experts have it. Indeed all of the predictions of what would happen immediately post-brexit are indeed happening. They were right all along.

Too early to tell, don't forget all your experts stated that by 2030 we would be better off than we re now if we left the EU.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
- Voltaire

jakswan

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #39 on: July 05, 2016, 01:06:55 PM »
So you had analysed the track record of all the experts quoted over a large number of predictions looking at whether they were better than average, and therefore aren't saying as Gove did that we don't need experts but that we need better experts? And having done that analysis you will be able to say who these better experts.

You can use analysis I'll use mine I'm sure we would disagree. What would be incorrect would be for me to claim you didn't do any analysis but discounted their views for other reasons other than your analysis.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #40 on: July 05, 2016, 01:11:48 PM »
You can use analysis I'll use mine I'm sure we would disagree. What would be incorrect would be for me to claim you didn't do any analysis but discounted their views for other reasons other than your analysis.
Why would we disagree if the analysis was done well? Again is this how you approach medicine?

ProfessorDavey

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #41 on: July 05, 2016, 01:14:40 PM »
Citation? I don't think this is correct.
The direct quote on an question and answer session was:

“the people of this country have had enough of experts”

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2016/jun/08/experts-eu-referendum-michael-gove

No indication that some but not all organisations might have got things wrong in the past, but that we shouldn't be listening to experts.

Not really e.g. Digby Jones is an expert.
Please read what I said, which was that 'the reality is that the experts were pretty well unanimous' - I didn't say they were unanimous, therefore you will get the occasional dissenting voice, just like you get climate change deniers. That Digby Jones is in a tiny minority does not negate the fact that the vast, vast majority of economic experts and independent economic organisations agree with each other - that Brexit would be bad in both the short term and in the longer term - the difference being the magnitude of that hit to the economy. And we are of course seeing there predictions coming true right before our very eyes.

Too early to tell, don't forget all your experts stated that by 2030 we would be better off than we re now if we left the EU.
Oh no - back onto your irrelevant mantra - the issue is whether we will be better off remaining compared to leaving. And we are already becoming pretty clear about the short term answer to that as the economy is nosediving, with Carney doing everything he can to prevent a full on crash.

jeremyp

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #42 on: July 05, 2016, 01:56:38 PM »
I'm telling you why I discounted their views, for much the same reasons as Gove
Which were totally irrational.
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jakswan

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #43 on: July 05, 2016, 01:58:40 PM »
The direct quote on an question and answer session was:

“the people of this country have had enough of experts”

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2016/jun/08/experts-eu-referendum-michael-gove

No indication that some but not all organisations might have got things wrong in the past, but that we shouldn't be listening to experts.

All cite the same debate:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43G0Hou_CKw

Clearly he is not saying 'we should ignore experts in every field every-time' which is what your posts suggest.

Quote
Please read what I said, which was that 'the reality is that the experts were pretty well unanimous' - I didn't say they were unanimous, therefore you will get the occasional dissenting voice, just like you get climate change deniers. That Digby Jones is in a tiny minority does not negate the fact that the vast, vast majority of economic experts and independent economic organisations agree with each other - that Brexit would be bad in both the short term and in the longer term - the difference being the magnitude of that hit to the economy. And we are of course seeing there predictions coming true right before our very eyes.

Yes lets not go over it again.

Quote
Oh no - back onto your irrelevant mantra - the issue is whether we will be better off remaining compared to leaving. And we are already becoming pretty clear about the short term answer to that as the economy is nosediving, with Carney doing everything he can to prevent a full on crash.

Its not irrelevant, I'm discounting the views of the experts not dismissing them. If all the experts had said we would be worse off than we are now by 2030 if we had left the EU then I might have changed my view.
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jakswan

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #44 on: July 05, 2016, 02:01:19 PM »
Why would we disagree if the analysis was done well? Again is this how you approach medicine?

Its impossible to do analysis in economics as well as we can do it in other disciplines. All of these organisations you cite have a neo-liberal agenda are you a neo-liberal?
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jeremyp

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #45 on: July 05, 2016, 02:01:21 PM »
Citation? I don't think this is correct.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3be49734-29cb-11e6-83e4-abc22d5d108c.html#axzz4DXRkQtTC

Quote
Not really e.g. Digby Jones is an expert.

What at?

Quote
Too early to tell, don't forget all your experts stated that by 2030 we would be better off than we re now if we left the EU.
But not as well off as we would have been if we had stayed in.

However, right now, our economy looks to be in for a brutal shock (just as the experts predicted) and people living now will suffer. If you can't feed your family today, the sunny uplands of 2030 look a very long way away.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #46 on: July 05, 2016, 02:44:06 PM »
Its impossible to do analysis in economics as well as we can do it in other disciplines. All of these organisations you cite have a neo-liberal agenda are you a neo-liberal?
Depends on the discipline but so what? Given that you think there are experts and they need not be ignored a la Gove, why are you so unwilling to tell me your analysis of who to trust?


What organisations did I cite?
« Last Edit: July 05, 2016, 02:50:54 PM by Nearly Sane »

SusanDoris

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #47 on: July 05, 2016, 03:59:32 PM »
But anyhow we are now in a period where we can see whether the experts or Gove (it will be all sunny and lovely) is right. So far looks like the experts have it. Indeed all of the predictions of what would happen immediately post-brexit are indeed happening. They were right all along.
Agree, as usual. I have already written to my MP asking what he, personally, is going to do and received a rather bland response, but I shall be writing again asking him for a link to any plan that he and other outers think they should follow. 
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Hope

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #48 on: July 05, 2016, 06:01:16 PM »
I guess the point was that the 'plan' was for Johnson to stand and Gove not too. Gove then knifed Johnson, but at that point there was still no indication that Gove was going to stand - so effectively Gove's actions appeared to be one of 'saving' the country from appointing a PM who wasn't up to the job, rather than removing a rival.

Then he surprisingly announced he was standing. I think that is the crux of it.
Except that the announcement of his standing was what is referred to as the knifing, PD.  As for the thread title, what he did wrong was to indicate what an incredibly untrustworthy and therefore inappropriate person he is for the job.  I'm hoping that the result of the Tory Party vote will have him with the fewest votes this first time round. 
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jakswan

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Re: What did Michael Gove do wrong by putting himself forward?
« Reply #49 on: July 05, 2016, 07:09:34 PM »
Depends on the discipline but so what? Given that you think there are experts and they need not be ignored a la Gove, why are you so unwilling to tell me your analysis of who to trust?

What organisations did I cite?

Never said experts need to be ignored, I discount their evidence for reasons already given, the predictions on previous issues similar to Brexit.

Never claimed you mentioned organisations I presumed you meant what Davey has previously cited.
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