US Election 2020

[Nearly Sane]

Other than the choice of the Supremes, and the bonus of not Trump, wondering quite how much difference a Biden presidency will make.

It seems to rest on 2 things to me. First, the relationship with China, and I can't see a good solution there that supports the rights of those in Hong Kong and the Uighurs without getting locked in a global financial conflict.

Second the ongoing social split in America, where even if Biden is seen to be able to reconcile those currently protesting with some of the centre risks effectively causing a further boost to those on the more outre parts of the right.

Both issues feel like squaring of circles.

Add to that the ongoing discussion of whether he might pick Mitt Romney as his VP.

[Steve H]

Once again, the Dems choose the least inspiring candidate.

[jeremyp]

Add to that the ongoing discussion of whether he might pick Mitt Romney as his VP.

If he picks Mitt Romney as VP, he will be handing Trump four more years. There aren't as many people on the left as the left likes to believe, but there are probably enough to swing the election if they don't vote.

[Nearly Sane]

If he picks Mitt Romney as VP, he will be handing Trump four more years. There aren't as many people on the left as the left likes to believe, but there are probably enough to swing the election if they don't vote.

I wonder though if there is a reasonable number of those already not going to be voting. I've certainly seen some of the groups behind Gabbard and Sanders saying they won't vote Biden.

If he could get say 5% of the centre right votes with Romney a d some rhetoric of unity, it would I think make Trump easily defeated. That said he promised a woman VP so it would be easy to spin against.

As a aside there was an election in the States in a fictional TV programme that I was watching and it raised once again in my mind the creaky electoral process where even with low turnouts to my mind they end up with long queues.

[jeremyp]

I wonder though if there is a reasonable number of those already not going to be voting. I've certainly seen some of the groups behind Gabbard and Sanders saying they won't vote Biden.

Yes there are, but hopefully not enough.

If he could get say 5% of the centre right votes with Romney a d some rhetoric of unity, it would I think make Trump easily defeated. That said he promised a woman VP so it would be easy to spin against.

I think everybody has already made up their minds about whether they prefer Trump or Biden and you won't be changing any minds. I think that it is more a question of who can mobilise their supporters to actually vote - or in the case of the GOP prevent the Dems from voting.

I don't think Romney would do anything from that point of view except depress the left wing vote.

As a aside there was an election in the States in a fictional TV programme that I was watching and it raised once again in my mind the creaky electoral process where even with low turnouts to my mind they end up with long queues.

Astonishingly, in a lot of states, the polling process is controlled by the political part of the government. Failing to put enough polling stations in the parts of the state where your opponents' voters reside is a common tactic. This is also why gerrymandering is rife in the USA.

[Nearly Sane]

Yes there are, but hopefully not enough.I think everybody has already made up their minds about whether they prefer Trump or Biden and you won't be changing any minds. I think that it is more a question of who can mobilise their supporters to actually vote - or in the case of the GOP prevent the Dems from voting.

I don't think Romney would do anything from that point of view except depress the left wing vote.

Astonishingly, in a lot of states, the polling process is controlled by the political part of the government. Failing to put enough polling stations in the parts of the state where your opponents' voters reside is a common tactic. This is also why gerrymandering is rife in the USA.

Agree that the last para is astonishing but it applies more generally than just corruption. I often wonder though given the problems how US elections can be seen as free and fair.

[Harrowby Hall]

But we all know, don't we, that the "elections" are no such thing. The paper-in-ballot-box exercise is little more than a popularity poll. Hilary Clinton was clearly the winner in the nationwide poll.

It is the unrepresentative distortions of the Electoral College which determine the choice of President. jeremyp's provides an example of how political interfering can affect the overall poll results. Local political manipulation can distort the information which is available to the Electoral College.

[Owlswing]

American politics - bent as a nine-bob note?

[Steve H]

American politics - bent as a nine-bob note?

Undoubtedly - and what an excellent, vivid, and apposite simile, if I may say so.

[Aruntraveller]

Moderators Note:

A number of posts have been removed as they were off topic.

[Nearly Sane]

Trump calling for delay to election - Oh shit!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53592881

[Roses]

Trump calling for delay to election - Oh shit!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53592881

What a surprise, I have been predicting that for a while!

[Nearly Sane]

What a surprise, I have been predicting that for a while!

The problem, O Great Seer, though is that this is a nightmare scenario that could lead to the breakdown of govt in the US. It's not that it is a surprise to me, rather that it leads to a feeling of dread about the future. I hope that this is something that Trump manages to row back from else cry havoc, and let loose the dogs of war.

[Outrider]

The problem, O Great Seer, though is that this is a nightmare scenario that could lead to the breakdown of govt in the US. It's not that it is a surprise to me, rather that it leads to a feeling of dread about the future. I hope that this is something that Trump manages to row back from else cry havoc, and let loose the dogs of war.

It could well be that he knows he won't get the delay, but this sets up the scenario where he and some of his Republic allies attempt to use the claim of voter fraud to ignore the results and stay in office - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/27/trump-loses-election-what-happens-possibilities

O.

[Roses]

The problem, O Great Seer, though is that this is a nightmare scenario that could lead to the breakdown of govt in the US. It's not that it is a surprise to me, rather that it leads to a feeling of dread about the future. I hope that this is something that Trump manages to row back from else cry havoc, and let loose the dogs of war.

There could be a civil war in the US if Trump gets away with it. Putin is hoping to put off the Russian presidential election until 2030, his clone, Trump, will probably want to do do the same.

[Nearly Sane]

It could well be that he knows he won't get the delay, but this sets up the scenario where he and some of his Republic allies attempt to use the claim of voter fraud to ignore the results and stay in office - https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/27/trump-loses-election-what-happens-possibilities

O.

I think that's a far from worst case scenario. It posits a close race and I fear if it's obviously not going to close then Trump will definitely make the attempt to delay the election. I can then see that triggering of a set of protests against that which will link into the ongoing protests. This then leads to the federal troops being sent in but on a topic that will be seen as fundamental. As I  noted in another post, I've heard the question asked 'What will the army do?' seriously.

[Outrider]

I think that's a far from worst case scenario. It posits a close race and I fear if it's obviously not going to close then Trump will definitely make the attempt to delay the election.

We won't know for sure how close it's going to be for a little while yet - I can see backstage Republicans seeding this idea now in case it's close, but I think the majority of them would concede if it weren't: at that point Trump comes into his own, I imagine he's not really planning as such yet, he doesn't strike me as the planning type.

I can then see that triggering of a set of protests against that which will link into the ongoing protests. This then leads to the federal troops being sent in but on a topic that will be seen as fundamental. As I  noted in another post, I've heard the question asked 'What will the army do?' seriously.

Unfortunately I don't know a huge amount about the American military leadership; I heard reports of a fairly significant Christian Nationalist element to the USAF senior staff by way of complaints about some of their recruitment and training practices, but I don't know how widespread it is within USAF or how far it extends to the other branches.

O.

[jeremyp]

I heard reports of a fairly significant Christian Nationalist element to the USAF senior staff by way of complaints about some of their recruitment and training practices, but I don't know how widespread it is within USAF or how far it extends to the other branches.

I think the military will heed the constitution. If Trump loses the election, on January 20th they will stop obeying him.

[Outrider]

I think the military will heed the constitution. If Trump loses the election, on January 20th they will stop obeying him.

I think I recall reading somewhere that, if the apparatus manages to cloud the election such that it's in some way in doubt then in the absence of senior figures in the executive branch responsibility falls upon the Speaker of the House, which puts them in the hands of Mitch McConnell; who knows what that paragon of integrity will choose to do with that little nugget.

O.

[Nearly Sane]

I think the military will heed the constitution. If Trump loses the election, on January 20th they will stop obeying him.

What if he orders them to stop the holding of the election?

[Outrider]

What if he orders them to stop the holding of the election?

I don't believe he has the authority to deploy the military within the US without Congressional approval...?

O.

[jeremyp]

I think I recall reading somewhere that, if the apparatus manages to cloud the election such that it's in some way in doubt then in the absence of senior figures in the executive branch responsibility falls upon the Speaker of the House, which puts them in the hands of Mitch McConnell; who knows what that paragon of integrity will choose to do with that little nugget.

O.

The Speaker of the House is Nancy Pelosi.

Edit: However, the House and Senate are also subject to elections on the same day as the presidential election. If the votes for the House representatives are also clouded, it will be interesting, to say the least.

[jeremyp]

What if he orders them to stop the holding of the election?

He doesn't have the authority to do that. The elections are run by the individual states so he would be putting troops (or more likely Federal agents in direct conflict with the states).

However, a lot of states are controlled by Republicans. If enough Republican state governments refuse to hold elections on Trump's orders, the Electoral college might be compromised i.e. Biden could win but to with an absolute majority. I've no idea what would happen then.

[Outrider]

The Speaker of the House is Nancy Pelosi.

Edit: However, the House and Senate are also subject to elections on the same day as the presidential election. If the votes for the House representatives are also clouded, it will be interesting, to say the least.

Sorry, I didn't mean Speaker, I meant the Senate Majority Leader... it's one that's reportedly different to most

O.

[jeremyp]

Sorry, I didn't mean Speaker, I meant the Senate Majority Leader... it's one that's reportedly different to most

O.

If no candidate receives an absolute majority in the Electoral College, a contingent election is held in the House of Representatives to select the new president.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election

However, all the representatives for each state vote as a bloc meaning that each state has one vote.

The vice president is selected by a vote in the Senate.