US Election 2020

[Nearly Sane]

...in the election or in bed?
 

Previous times, both

[Nearly Sane]

Feck. Feck, feck.

[Robbie]

You walked into that one NS. I've just got up (tho hardly awake yet) but have to get ready to be at work at 8 today so still won't know the result.

[ad_orientem]

Looks like it will be tight. Surely if Trump wins the US will have their title as the stupidest nation on Earth sealed?

[Steve H]

Biden in the lead so far.  https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat

[Outrider]

Biden in the lead so far.  https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat

On declared states, yes, but looking at the projections it's tight - Biden's purportedly going to pick up more of the late votes in the states that weren't permitted to start counting postal votes early, but there are some large deficits to make up in there with not a lot of votes left to count in some instances.  It's too tight to call at this point, but I (hoping for a not-Trump win) have a bad feeling.

The US used to be somewhere to look to; I wonder if that was childish stupidity or if it really has declined that much

O.

[Steve H]

On declared states, yes, but looking at the projections it's tight - Biden's purportedly going to pick up more of the late votes in the states that weren't permitted to start counting postal votes early, but there are some large deficits to make up in there with not a lot of votes left to count in some instances.  It's too tight to call at this point, but I (hoping for a not-Trump win) have a bad feeling.

The US used to be somewhere to look to; I wonder if that was childish stupidity or if it really has declined that much

O.

Yes, I realise that it's still up in the air. Many of the undeclared states look like going for T'rump. However, the only state to have flipped since 2016 so far - Arizona - has gone to Biden.

[The Accountant, OBE, KC]

I have a bad feeling too. Didn't want another 4 years of inane Trump speeches, but it looks like while people did not appear to want to admit to supporting Trump in pre-election polls, there are a lot of voters who prefer the Republican party in power. One academic (Professor of Mathematics at Princeton) articulates why.

https://www.newsweek.com/why-i-will-vote-trump-opinion-1543803

It seems to be  a popular opposition to identity politics and big government?

My American friend (not a Trump supporter) says a lot of Trump voters are worried that Biden will shut the country down because of Covid-19 and they are not prepared to risk that.

[Aruntraveller]

I too have a bad feeling.

Had a full scale row with my partners cousin last night - she lives in Oregon, Democratic state but she is staunchly republican.

Her reason for voting Republican was because of her stance on abortion. I pointed out that she should perhaps concentrate on keeping those already born alive by controlling the pandemic. It didn't go too well after that. 

[The Accountant, OBE, KC]

Trump has a lot of support from ethnic minorities, where his policies on tackling crime seems to resonate. Also the ethnic minorities, whose opinion was sought, seem to not find Trump as racist as white people appear to.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-vote-rising-among-blacks-hispanics-despite-conventional-wisdom-ncna1245787

Going into Election Day in 2020, Trump seems poised to do even better with minority voters. His gains in the polling have been highly consistent and broad-based among Blacks and Hispanics — with male voters and female voters, the young and the old, educated and uneducated. Overall, Trump is polling about 10 percentage points higher with African Americans than he did in 2016, and 14 percentage points higher with Hispanics.

[Nearly Sane]

One thing that will have helped Trump is the rise, still somewhat surprising to me,  in the stock markets in the US over the Covid period.

[jeremyp]

It's al a bit squeaky bum. Far too tight for my taste.

[Nearly Sane]

Marina Hyde on where we are

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/04/ok-america-so-what-the-hell-happens-now?__twitter_impression=true

[Nearly Sane]

Apparently Biden's vote count now stands as the largest tally ever won by a POTUS candidate.

[Nearly Sane]

Biden is currently 7/2 on to win. At 2am you could have got 4/1 against.

[Outrider]

Yes, I realise that it's still up in the air. Many of the undeclared states look like going for T'rump. However, the only state to have flipped since 2016 so far - Arizona - has gone to Biden.

Now Wisconsin and Nevada showing for Biden, with Michigan coming towards Democrat with every update of the count, but they won't enough - he needs one of North Carolina or Pennsylvania (as Georgia and Alaska seem unlikely at this point)... it's close.

Needless to say, the Democrats look like carrying the popular vote by a considerable margin for the seventh time in the last eight elections - they've lost three of the last seven nonetheless.

O.

[ProfessorDavey]

Now Wisconsin and Nevada showing for Biden, with Michigan coming towards Democrat with every update of the count, but they won't enough - he needs one of North Carolina or Pennsylvania (as Georgia and Alaska seem unlikely at this point)... it's close.

Needless to say, the Democrats look like carrying the popular vote by a considerable margin for the seventh time in the last eight elections - they've lost three of the last seven nonetheless.

O.

If Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada (plus Arizona) then he wins, as far as I understand. If that happens he won't need NC, Pennsylvania or Georgia.

[Outrider]

If Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada (plus Arizona) then he wins, as far as I understand. If that happens he won't need NC, Pennsylvania or Georgia.

Could be the case - I've been distracted from the important detail of trying to follow the slow moving election by a combination of unimportant work and an 18 month old who wants my laptop!

O.

[ProfessorDavey]

Could be the case - I've been distracted from the important detail of trying to follow the slow moving election by a combination of unimportant work and an 18 month old who wants my laptop!

O.

People seem to have missed that Maine hasn't been called yet, but is one of a handful of states that split EC votes - so Biden likely to win 3 of the 4 colleges votes (as happened for the Dems in 2016). Importantly, Biden has won one of the college votes in Nebraska, so it is 4-1 to Trump - last time Trump won all 5 college votes.

[Outrider]

People seem to have missed that Maine hasn't been called yet, but is one of a handful of states that split EC votes - so Biden likely to win 3 of the 4 colleges votes (as happened for the Dems in 2016). Importantly, Biden has won one of the college votes in Nebraska, so it is 4-1 to Trump - last time Trump won all 5 college votes.

The AP (as reported in the Guardian) have Maine called for Biden in all districts?

Michigan just flipped on their (the Guardian's) count, too, so Biden is showing as having 238 college votes called and is ahead for 32 more which would give him the 270 needed - presuming we don't get any faithless electors...

O.

[Nearly Sane]

This is from a couple of weeks back. Wish I had read it then. Very interesting on polling


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-pollsters-have-changed-since-2016-and-what-still-worries-them-about-2020/?ex_cid=story-facebook&fbclid=IwAR0RGXWadI5WvdgT3axzNvZh-BLWf7hD-ANfSUQrxus-deUvA6RWVM1g70E

[SusanDoris]

Very tentatively, I clicked on this last page … … I've managed to avoid listening to anything today, but the idea that that ghastly trump might get back in is just too horrible for words.

What about Ohio? Anybody know?

[Nearly Sane]

Very tentatively, I clicked on this last page … … I've managed to avoid listening to anything today, but the idea that that ghastly trump might get back in is just too horrible for words.

What about Ohio? Anybody know?

Trump won it

[wigginhall]

Biden has a clear route to 270 electoral votes, via Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan.  His lead in the latter two is tiny, so Trump is ranting about fraud, and threatenng the Supreme Court.  It could get nasty.  There are other routes.

[SusanDoris]

Trump won it

Thank you for the info. All we can hope for now then is that this is the second time in America where Ohio has got it wrong.