Author Topic: Rugby World Cup 2019  (Read 90 times)

Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #25 on: August 16, 2019, 12:14:24 PM »
Out of interest, where did you gets those odds from. I'm struggling to find odds on the match, but where I have it seems nearer to 70:30 in favour of Scotland - e.g.:

https://rugby4cast.com/events/rugby-world-cup/
My head - they are what I think, that's why I said' I think' and they are just rough figures.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #26 on: August 16, 2019, 12:19:51 PM »
My head - they are what I think, that's why I said' I think' and they are just rough figures.
OK - so you make comments about Scotland's chances that are more negative than the reality. You then make up betting odds that don't exist to back up your view (even though they actually don't). And you are claiming that I'm somehow wrong and made a mistake. Unbelievable.

And of course you continue to refuse to answer a direct question with a direct answer.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #27 on: August 16, 2019, 12:28:11 PM »
OK - so you make comments about Scotland's chances that are more negative than the reality. You then make up betting odds that don't exist to back up your view (even though they actually don't). And you are claiming that I'm somehow wrong and made a mistake. Unbelievable.

And of course you continue to refuse to answer a direct question with a direct answer.
I'm giving my opinion of what the odds are. It's my estimate - It's what I think. Odds being offered elsewhere are a factor of the maket, they aren't 'reality' in some mystical sense. You are hopelessly confused.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #28 on: August 16, 2019, 12:36:27 PM »
I'm giving my opinion of what the odds are. It's my estimate - It's what I think. Odds being offered elsewhere are a factor of the maket, they aren't 'reality' in some mystical sense. You are hopelessly confused.
No - you are making stuff up. You can't just make up odds on the basis of what you think, and then try to imply that these odds back up what you think. It is non-sense. When you mentioned odds I assumed (as I suspect anyone would) that this was based on a betting market not on stuff you'd made up.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #29 on: August 16, 2019, 12:39:39 PM »
I'm giving my opinion of what the odds are. It's my estimate - It's what I think. Odds being offered elsewhere are a factor of the maket, they aren't 'reality' in some mystical sense. You are hopelessly confused.
Back in the real world rather than the NS 'let's make up stuff world'.

While I'm struggling to find odds on the specific Japan/Scotland match there are odds available on stage of elimination:

https://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/rugby-world-cup-2019/stage-of-elimination-scotland

The odds (actual odds, not made-up stuff) on Scotland being eliminated at the group stage are variously 4/1 and 5/1 meaning implied probability that Scotland will not progress from the group stage is 20% or less. Hardly consistent with your comments.
« Last Edit: August 16, 2019, 01:28:01 PM by ProfessorDavey »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #30 on: August 16, 2019, 05:25:09 PM »
Oh dear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/49322030
Back to more interesting matters that NS making up odds.

I hope there aren't too many top players injured for the tournament. I think most major sporting tournaments suffer from injuries (recent example being Jimmy Anderson's injury) and you really want to see the very best players against the very best.

Not sure whether the timing - starting in Sept - helps or hinders. In one respect (certainly for the NH sides) there has been a largely off season period for recovery, although the SH sides will be coming straight out of a truncated Rugby championship tournament. However sometimes I think there is a greater risk of injury early season when players are perhaps not at peak fitness.

That said I think the Autumn timing of the world cup helps the SH teams who will have had a relatively recent and highly competitive Championship against the rest of the best. The NH sides wont have had anything properly competitive for 6 months (and that's if you consider the 6 nations to be a competitive tournament ;))

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #31 on: August 16, 2019, 05:30:05 PM »
Oh dear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/49322030
Not sure how comprehensive this is:

https://www.rugbyworld.com/tournaments/rugby-world-cup-2019/rugby-world-cup-injuries-96775

But currently doesn't look too bad in terms of current injuries threatening to rule out players from the world cup. You will always get at least one big name ruled out through injury in any sporting tournament. I think Wales are probably worst affected currently with both Anscombe and Faletau definitely out.

jeremyp

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #32 on: August 19, 2019, 08:18:36 PM »
What error?

'Can see Scotland getting knocked out in the group stage.'

'Likely loss to Ireland. And quite possible loss against the hosts in what looks like being a qualifier for the quarters in the last of all the group matches. Scotland not known as the best travellers.'

Are not comments that can reasonably be interpreted as anything other than you thinking Scotland going out at the group stages is a likely outcome, despite your later denial. I did not misinterpret what you wrote regardless of whether that is what you actually meant.

Actually I concur with NS on this one. His comments imply plausibility rather than better than 50% chance. The “I can see” bit is not inconsistent with that, but does suggest a fan resigned to his team screwing it up.

Anyway, I wish you guys would sometimes just let it go.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #33 on: August 19, 2019, 08:33:17 PM »
Actually I concur with NS on this one.
Including him simply making stuff up - in other words making up odds, where they clearly don't exist.

You are of course correct (as I suggested previously) that his overly pessimistic view is probably a negative emotional response, while his rational head tells him something different. But of course when you are a fan it is easy to let your non rational emotional gut reaction take over, regardless of whether it is overly optimistic or (as in NS's case) overly pessimistic.

Back on odds - I think the odds of Scotland going out at the group stage of between 15-20% seems about right to me. Real odds of course - not just made up stuff.