Arming the Ukrainians

[Sassy]

I know some posts have been lost recently, but I thought it might be a good time to ask whether you think Ukraine should agree to Russian peace terms now?

NEVER....Leaving the iceberg in charge of the Titanic spells disaster. The USSR should go home and stay home.
The Ukrainians should be allowed to remain the leader of their own country and Russia get their proverbial kicked.

[Outrider]

I'm not sure what exactly you're referring to by "There was civil unrest, there was an impeachment, the civil unrest was quelled and calmed, and people went to the voting booth."

The Maidan uprising.

My point was that a mob violently forced out the Ukrainian president who had the majority vote in the Donbas, and consequently many of those people decided to become autonomous rather than be ruled by the new government.

No. There were public demonstrations, the Ukrainian Parliament voted to impeach the President for his blatant reversal of his previous promises, at which point he fled to Russia. His impeachment later revealed large sums of Russian money he'd been recieving, if I recall.  The people then went to the voting booth and elected new leadership. No coup - civil unrest, yes, but no coup.

You've stated that the Minsk agreements were not satisfactory to Ukraine; this can only mean that they planned at some point to retake the Donbas. That's the ultimate goal for arming Ukraine. So unless that stops, Donbas will be under threat of invasion from Kiev.

Liberation, not invasion. It's Ukrainian land and Ukrainian people, currently occupied by a hostile foreign force.

This relates to your earlier point about Russia wanting all of Ukraine: the reason for this is that the only way Russia can stop the West sending them weapons is by occupying all of Ukraine.

The only reason the West is sending Ukraine weapons is to kick Russia out of Ukraine. If Russia fucks off back to Russia, no-one will be shooting at them.

O.

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[Spud]

The Maidan uprising.

No. There were public demonstrations, the Ukrainian Parliament voted to impeach the President for his blatant reversal of his previous promises, at which point he fled to Russia. His impeachment later revealed large sums of Russian money he'd been recieving, if I recall.  The people then went to the voting booth and elected new leadership. No coup - civil unrest, yes, but no coup.

Liberation, not invasion. It's Ukrainian land and Ukrainian people, currently occupied by a hostile foreign force.

The only reason the West is sending Ukraine weapons is to kick Russia out of Ukraine. If Russia fucks off back to Russia, no-one will be shooting at them.

O.

Whether or not you are right about the Maidan uprising, it was known from the time it was announced that Ukraine and Georgia would be invited to join NATO, that Russia would not allow it, and Yanukovich shelved plans for membership. This would be why Russia suported him. All Ukraine had to do to get Russia out of Ukraine was maintain neutrality. Now they have lost 5 regions, and the weapons sent by the West aren't pushing them back but making Ukraine weaker.  Not to mention that Russia is now closer to China, an unwelcome alliance from NATO's point of view.

[Outrider]

Whether or not you are right about the Maidan uprising, it was known from the time it was announced that Ukraine and Georgia would be invited to join NATO, that Russia would not allow it, and Yanukovich shelved plans for membership.

It's not Russia's choice. Sure, they get to make a pitch, but rather than send messages to the Ukrainian people they sent Rubles to the Ukrainian president.

This would be why Russia suported him.

The word you're looking for isn't 'supported' it's 'bribed'.

All Ukraine had to do to get Russia out of Ukraine was maintain neutrality.

Russia weren't in Ukraine at the time. They decided the best way to keep Russia out of Ukraine was to have the support of NATO; turns out they were wrong, but neither option would justify Russia's invasion of a foreign country - you don't get to invade because you don't like someone else's decisions.

Now they have lost 5 regions, and the weapons sent by the West aren't pushing them back but making Ukraine weaker.

They're not pushing Russia back at the moment - they have been, and they might again. Equally, Russia might run out of money, men and resources, it depends on which way Donald Trump's coin-flip lands at the moment. It's going to be a long three-year wait for Ukraine to get the backing of a US president with a spine.

Not to mention that Russia is now closer to China, an unwelcome alliance from NATO's point of view.

NATO, currently, doesn't give a toss about Russia's lack of military capabilities, if China wants that liability it can have it.

O.

[Spud]

It's not Russia's choice. Sure, they get to make a pitch, but rather than send messages to the Ukrainian people they sent Rubles to the Ukrainian president.

The word you're looking for isn't 'supported' it's 'bribed'.

Russia weren't in Ukraine at the time. They decided the best way to keep Russia out of Ukraine was to have the support of NATO; turns out they were wrong, but neither option would justify Russia's invasion of a foreign country - you don't get to invade because you don't like someone else's decisions.

They're not pushing Russia back at the moment - they have been, and they might again. Equally, Russia might run out of money, men and resources, it depends on which way Donald Trump's coin-flip lands at the moment. It's going to be a long three-year wait for Ukraine to get the backing of a US president with a spine.

NATO, currently, doesn't give a toss about Russia's lack of military capabilities, if China wants that liability it can have it.

O.

The fact remains that Russia will do whatever it takes to keep Ukraine out of NATO.  According to one Russian official whose name I didn't catch, this means they will have to kill the entire male population which is being sent against them. Trump is wise enough to avoid a direct US clash with Russia, so either Ukraine capitulates or it's attrition to the end.

[Outrider]

The fact remains that Russia will do whatever it takes to keep Ukraine out of NATO.

Russia will run out of money, people, will at some point - it's now a question of whether Ukraine can kill them fast enough that that happens first.

According to one Russian official whose name I didn't catch, this means they will have to kill the entire male population which is being sent against them.

Nobody is being 'sent against' Russia - they are defending themselves from Russian invasion.

Trump is wise enough to avoid a direct US clash with Russia, so either Ukraine capitulates or it's attrition to the end.

Trump is not 'wise', Trump's grubbing for money - it's blatant self-interest, not some higher reasoning.

O.

[Roses]

Russia will run out of money, people, will at some point - it's now a question of whether Ukraine can kill them fast enough that that happens first.

Nobody is being 'sent against' Russia - they are defending themselves from Russian invasion.

Trump is not 'wise', Trump's grubbing for money - it's blatant self-interest, not some higher reasoning.

O.

Trump and wisdom is an oxymoron.