Rugby World Cup 2019

[Nearly Sane]

Messy win for England.

[jeremyp]

The France Argentina result makes it tough for Argentina to get through group stage.

They will have to beat England I think, but they were always going to have to beat one of England or France. At least they got the bonus point.

[Nearly Sane]

They will have to beat England I think, but they were always going to have to beat one of England or France. At least they got the bonus point.

And of the 2 France looked the more likely option. Good draw in terms of the match order for England.

[ProfessorDavey]

Messy win for England.

Didn't watch any of the England game but saw some of Ireland/Scotland which was littered with errors even before the weather really deteriorated. I know there has been discussion about the humidity and conditions making the ball very greasy plus also its flight being different. So this might explain things - hope teams can adapt to the conditions and that matches are won by good play rather than errors.

[jeremyp]

Well, the first round of matches are now complete and no real surprises.

[ProfessorDavey]

Well, the first round of matches are now complete and no real surprises.

The result of every match pretty well perfectly predicted by looking at the world rankings on the eve of the tournament.

Let's hope for some upsets soon.

[Nearly Sane]

Brutal but correct

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/49788522

[jeremyp]

The result of every match pretty well perfectly predicted by looking at the world rankings on the eve of the tournament.

Let's hope for some upsets soon.

Let me try to guess some upsets in the pool stages (defined as team beats a team higher in the rankings)

Wales might lose to Fiji (outside chance)
Wales might lose to Australia (strong chance)
Australia might lose to Fiji (outside chance)
Scotland might lose to Japan (low chance)
England might lose to Argentina (low chance)
England might lose to France (strongish chance)

There are probably other possibilities involving non top tier teams, but I think that's it in terms of teams expecting to get into the knock out stage.

[jeremyp]

Brutal but correct

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/49788522

Maybe I'll upgrade Japan's chance of beating Scotland.

[ProfessorDavey]

Let me try to guess some upsets in the pool stages (defined as team beats a team higher in the rankings)

Wales might lose to Fiji (outside chance)
Wales might lose to Australia (strong chance)
Australia might lose to Fiji (outside chance)
Scotland might lose to Japan (low chance)
England might lose to Argentina (low chance)
England might lose to France (strongish chance)

There are probably other possibilities involving non top tier teams, but I think that's it in terms of teams expecting to get into the knock out stage.

Those seem pretty reasonable suggestions to me although I wonder whether 'strongish chance' of France beating England is more down to emotional nervousness of England supporters than rational assessment. England should beat France - I hope

I think you are right that the most likely upset vs rankings is Wales vs Australia although I think the rankings struggle when comparing NH vs SH sides as they only play each other in proper competitive matches once every 4 years. I think the ranking within the pool of NH sides and within the pool of SH sides is OK but that the SH sides are better than their immediate pre-tournament ranking suggests.

[jeremyp]

Those seem pretty reasonable suggestions to me although I wonder whether 'strongish chance' of France beating England is more down to emotional nervousness of England supporters than rational assessment. England should beat France - I hope

Yeah,in my scale "strongish" means England will probably win but there is a non trivial chance they will fuck it up. (c.f. Scotland in the Six Nations).

I think you are right that the most likely upset vs rankings is Wales vs Australia although I think the rankings struggle when comparing NH vs SH sides as they only play each other in proper competitive matches once every 4 years. I think the ranking within the pool of NH sides and within the pool of SH sides is OK but that the SH sides are better than their immediate pre-tournament ranking suggests.

Totally agree with that.

[ProfessorDavey]

Totally agree with that.

I think it is really hard to sort proper world rankings when you haven't had a competitive game between the SH teams and the NH ones for 4 years.

And at this stage I think it is even harder as there are usually a set of Autumn friendlies in the NH and Summer ones in the SH. While these aren't properly competitive (the SH teams use it as a useful training exercise) at least you get some feeling for relative strength, with typically the NH teams getting slaughtered playing away, while the SH teams usually achieve par in the Autumn games. But this year there are no Summer games in the SH to get any kind of feel.

I suspect we may already have seen the final lineup playing each other, namely NZ vs SA.

[ProfessorDavey]

First upset of the world cup - Uruguay beating Fiji - well done to them.

Wondering about our discussion previously on recovery time between games - Uruguay, first game of the tournament, completely rested having played their last warm up game on 7th Sept vs Fiji just four days after a bruising encounter with Australia. Have to wonder whether this played a part.

[Nearly Sane]

Agree, And for Fiji a win for them v Australia was the 'cup final'. And for Uruguay winning that match was their cup final
 

[ProfessorDavey]

Agree, And for Fiji a win for them v Australia was the 'cup final'. And for Uruguay winning that match was their cup final

Not sure that's true - certainly not for Fiji, whose priority will be finishing at least 3rd in the group to ensure automatic qualification for the next world cup. Big blow to them yesterday in that goal.

[jeremyp]

Not sure that's true - certainly not for Fiji, whose priority will be finishing at least 3rd in the group to ensure automatic qualification for the next world cup. Big blow to them yesterday in that goal.

I think that must be their priority objective but their aspiration would have been to beat one of Australia or Wales. They could still beat Wales, I guess. In fact, they'll probably need to now.

[Nearly Sane]

Well there's your upset. Japan to top the group?

[Anchorman]

Well there's your upset. Japan to top the group?

 


It was a superb effort from Japan.
Ireland were simply outplayed.

[jeremyp]

Well there's your upset. Japan to top the group?

Only if they beat Scotland. If they don't, it comes down to bonus points but I think Scotland are in trouble.

[Nearly Sane]

Only if they beat Scotland. If they don't, it comes down to bonus points but I think Scotland are in trouble.

Yep, I know.  That is what the ? Is for. Given Ireland's easy victory over Scotland, Japan must be looking for the win.

[jeremyp]

Given Ireland's easy victory over Scotland, Japan must be looking for the win.

I think they were always looking for the win against Scotland. They would have looked at the group before it started and said "this is our chance to beat one of the big teams". They were probably not expecting to also win against Ireland.

I have to say though, whoever wins the group is likely to meet South Africa in the QF and whoever comes second will probably meet the All Blacks. If Scotland do fail to qualify, they will only be missing one match.

[ProfessorDavey]

Might need to rethink my opinion that Scotland 'should' beat Japan

[Nearly Sane]

That was a bit better from Scotland. Odd group now.

[Anchorman]

That was a bit better from Scotland. Odd group now.

 


We couldn't have been any worse.
We have to hope for a five pointer against Russia, then cross our fingers that Japan is played out by the end.

[jeremyp]

 


We couldn't have been any worse.
We have to hope for a five pointer against Russia, then cross our fingers that Japan is played out by the end.

I've put some thought into it because I need to make a prediction for the match in another forum. I think Scotland will beat Japan. Whether they do enough to edge them in bonus points remains to be seen though.