Author Topic: Rugby World Cup 2019  (Read 21561 times)

Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #200 on: October 13, 2019, 03:27:33 PM »
Well that's moot. Well done Japan.
Absolutely. I will console myself with the money on the bet I made a few weeks ago.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #201 on: October 13, 2019, 06:45:32 PM »
Absolutely. I will console myself with the money on the bet I made a few weeks ago.
So one of the teams ranked 1st and 2nd immediately pre-tournament wont be making it beyond the quarter final.

jeremyp

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #202 on: October 13, 2019, 08:05:34 PM »
So one of the teams ranked 1st and 2nd immediately pre-tournament wont be making it beyond the quarter final.

My money is on it being Ireland.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #203 on: October 13, 2019, 09:38:39 PM »
So one of the teams ranked 1st and 2nd immediately pre-tournament wont be making it beyond the quarter final.
And I made money from it

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #204 on: October 14, 2019, 07:33:44 AM »
My money is on it being Ireland.
Agreed - in which case the Irish curse of not making it beyond the quarters will continue.

jeremyp

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #205 on: October 14, 2019, 09:31:23 PM »
Agreed - in which case the Irish curse of not making it beyond the quarters will continue.

What about Japan - RSA then?  I'm fairly confident that it will be South Africa that wins but Japan played so well against Scotland, that I don't think it is a dead cert that South Africa will win.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #206 on: October 15, 2019, 07:46:14 AM »
What about Japan - RSA then?  I'm fairly confident that it will be South Africa that wins but Japan played so well against Scotland, that I don't think it is a dead cert that South Africa will win.
Japan have beaten SA in the world cup in the past, but I think this will be a step too far for them.

jeremyp

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #207 on: October 15, 2019, 12:16:05 PM »
Japan have beaten SA in the world cup in the past, but I think this will be a step too far for them.
I agree, South Africa are a much better side than the previous one that lost to Japan.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #208 on: October 15, 2019, 12:45:56 PM »
Current odds see a Japan win at 7/1.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #209 on: October 15, 2019, 02:53:28 PM »

Interesting article on the gap between Tier 1 and Tier 2 nations

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50026631

jeremyp

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #210 on: October 15, 2019, 07:02:08 PM »
Interesting article on the gap between Tier 1 and Tier 2 nations

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50026631

I wonder how much of the difference between 2015 and 2019 is accounted for by the performance of the hosts of 2019 and tier 2 nation Japan. Also, given that Japan still has to play South Africa, that could improve the margin of victory for this year.

The larger step between 2011 and 2015 could be accounted for by Argentina's admission into the Rugby Championship in 2012 which "promoted" them to tier 1. If they had been classified as tier 2 for this tournament, the graph would definitely look worse for the tier 2 nations.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #211 on: October 15, 2019, 09:52:27 PM »
I wonder how much of the difference between 2015 and 2019 is accounted for by the performance of the hosts of 2019 and tier 2 nation Japan. Also, given that Japan still has to play South Africa, that could improve the margin of victory for this year.

The larger step between 2011 and 2015 could be accounted for by Argentina's admission into the Rugby Championship in 2012 which "promoted" them to tier 1. If they had been classified as tier 2 for this tournament, the graph would definitely look worse for the tier 2 nations.
Can't see much evidence of progress from that article - quite the reverse.

In the first four world cups there were seven tier 2 victories over tier 1 sides in 66 matches. In the most recent 5 world cups the have just five tier 2 victories over tier 1 sides in 120 matches - and two of those victories are Japan in this tournament with the benefit of home advantage.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #212 on: October 15, 2019, 10:35:27 PM »
So the various comments from rugby professionals can be dismissed because...

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #213 on: October 16, 2019, 07:37:47 AM »
So the various comments from rugby professionals can be dismissed because...
of evidence ... as always.

jeremyp

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #214 on: October 16, 2019, 02:29:34 PM »
So the various comments from rugby professionals can be dismissed because...

Are you talking about the ones at the bottom of the article? Because none of them said that the gap has got narrower. Paul Grayson and Eddie Jones both said that tier 2 nations have improved, but not that they are closer to challenging tier 1 nations.

I suppose you could argue that, in context, they were saying the gap was narrowing but neither are involved in coaching tier 2 nations at the moment and despite Eddie's comments, Tonga and USA lost all of their matches against tier 1 nations, including against Argentina which is one of the weakest tier 1 nations.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #215 on: October 16, 2019, 02:43:00 PM »
Are you talking about the ones at the bottom of the article? Because none of them said that the gap has got narrower. Paul Grayson and Eddie Jones both said that tier 2 nations have improved, but not that they are closer to challenging tier 1 nations.

I suppose you could argue that, in context, they were saying the gap was narrowing but neither are involved in coaching tier 2 nations at the moment and despite Eddie's comments, Tonga and USA lost all of their matches against tier 1 nations, including against Argentina which is one of the weakest tier 1 nations.
Yep, fair points.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #216 on: October 16, 2019, 04:55:40 PM »
Are you talking about the ones at the bottom of the article? Because none of them said that the gap has got narrower. Paul Grayson and Eddie Jones both said that tier 2 nations have improved, but not that they are closer to challenging tier 1 nations.

I suppose you could argue that, in context, they were saying the gap was narrowing but neither are involved in coaching tier 2 nations at the moment and despite Eddie's comments, Tonga and USA lost all of their matches against tier 1 nations, including against Argentina which is one of the weakest tier 1 nations.
I think it is difficult to argue that the gap has narrowed, looking at the victory rate of tier 2 nations over tier 1 nations over the history of the world cup. Has the gap widened - well the results in terms of likelihood of victory suggest so, taking the most recent few world cups and comparing with the first few.

The article makes a point about reduction in average size of defeat (somewhat clutching at straws), but doesn't go all the way back. I think there is likely a trend here, but not sure it is related to the gap narrowing. I think it may be due to changes in the rules of the tournament.

First the introduction of bonus points has made points difference almost irrelevant, so once you are assured of victory and have scored four tries there is limited value in stacking up more and more points (particularly at the risk of injury), so I suspect teams take their foot off the pedal more than they might have done once.

Secondly (and probably more importantly) the number of replacements allowed has changed dramatically. So back in the days of 100+ points the weaker side would be playing the final quarter with largely the same team as started, with the stronger and fitter team running riot - now half the team can be fresh.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #217 on: October 16, 2019, 05:15:43 PM »
I think that last point from Prof D is a very good one.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #218 on: October 16, 2019, 05:19:48 PM »
I think that last point from Prof D is a very good one.
I think also players, even from the lesser teams, are fitter now even if the gulf in quality and training is as great as ever. This plus the ability to change over half your side limits the likelihood of conceding at the levels we used to see.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #219 on: October 16, 2019, 05:29:05 PM »
I think also players, even from the lesser teams, are fitter now even if the gulf in quality and training is as great as ever. This plus the ability to change over half your side limits the likelihood of conceding at the levels we used to see.
And the ability to have multiple replacements may while overall reducing the score differential also affect the ability of Tier 2 teams to win in circumstances where Tier 1 team loses better players.


ProfessorDavey

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #220 on: October 16, 2019, 05:36:35 PM »
And the ability to have multiple replacements may while overall reducing the score differential also affect the ability of Tier 2 teams to win in circumstances where Tier 1 team loses better players.
As the tier 1 teams tend to have greater strength in depth greater numbers of replacement probably also makes it harder for the tier 2 side to win, even if their fresh legs can prevent a massive mauling. It takes some of the uncertainty out of the equation which is often required for a giant killing upset.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #221 on: October 16, 2019, 05:54:21 PM »
As the tier 1 teams tend to have greater strength in depth greater numbers of replacement probably also makes it harder for the tier 2 side to win, even if their fresh legs can prevent a massive mauling. It takes some of the uncertainty out of the equation which is often required for a giant killing upset.

Yes, that was my point since we need to explain both the number of victories and points differential changes.


To go back to the article, what is your take on Tier 2 coaches looking for more playing with Tier 1 sides?

jeremyp

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #222 on: October 16, 2019, 06:48:50 PM »
I think it is difficult to argue that the gap has narrowed, looking at the victory rate of tier 2 nations over tier 1 nations over the history of the world cup. Has the gap widened - well the results in terms of likelihood of victory suggest so, taking the most recent few world cups and comparing with the first few.

The article makes a point about reduction in average size of defeat (somewhat clutching at straws), but doesn't go all the way back. I think there is likely a trend here, but not sure it is related to the gap narrowing. I think it may be due to changes in the rules of the tournament.

First the introduction of bonus points has made points difference almost irrelevant, so once you are assured of victory and have scored four tries there is limited value in stacking up more and more points (particularly at the risk of injury), so I suspect teams take their foot off the pedal more than they might have done once.

Secondly (and probably more importantly) the number of replacements allowed has changed dramatically. So back in the days of 100+ points the weaker side would be playing the final quarter with largely the same team as started, with the stronger and fitter team running riot - now half the team can be fresh.

All very good points. And another one about bonus points: the losing side has an incentive to keep within seven points of the winning side. This means that, while the winning side, having got its four tries and a bonus point may take its foot off the gas, there is still something the losing side can aim for.

So with all these issues:

- bonus points
- more replacements
- Argentina's promotion to tier 1
- Japan doing well in a home competition.

we should really be concerned about why the gap hasn't closed more.
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jeremyp

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #223 on: October 16, 2019, 06:53:45 PM »
To go back to the article, what is your take on Tier 2 coaches looking for more playing with Tier 1 sides?

Well they have to for two reasons.

1. It helps them understand better what the quality is that they have to beat so it doesn't come as so much of a shock when the RWC comes around.

2. It'll help improve visibility of the sport in their home country and hopefully improve revenues for the sport.

In any sport, the two drivers for success are how many people participate and how much money you spend on them.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Rugby World Cup 2019
« Reply #224 on: October 16, 2019, 07:00:01 PM »
Well they have to for two reasons.

1. It helps them understand better what the quality is that they have to beat so it doesn't come as so much of a shock when the RWC comes around.

2. It'll help improve visibility of the sport in their home country and hopefully improve revenues for the sport.

In any sport, the two drivers for success are how many people participate and how much money you spend on them.
  Yes, I agree with that, I was asking Prof D because his plans seem to reduce the likelihood of that.