Author Topic: Arming the Ukrainians  (Read 193777 times)

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2325 on: July 03, 2025, 11:55:33 AM »
Russia has further ambitions; defending Ukraine isn't just about reclaiming Ukrainian territory that's been illegally occupied, it's also about preventing further incursions into other territories
No, Russia has been warning NATO to stop expanding for decades, so you can't say Russian incursions are due to its pursuing territorial ambitions.
Russian expansion Westward is aimed at protecting itself, having been invaded by Napoleon and Germany in recent centuries. The Soviet Union, which NATO was designed to defend against, no longer exists. So why create a power imbalance that turns NATO  into a threat? Like it or not, balance of power is a thing. The OSCE says so, stating that a state should not increase its security at the expense of another's security. An imbalance of power creates a 'security dilemma'. This is where if one state increases its military strength, even if only for defensive purposes, a neighbouring state may see that as a threat, and take countermeasures, and so a cycle of escalation begins that can lead to war.

NATO expansion has driven Russia and China closer together - exactly what the US was trying to avoid, according to an article by Wess Mitchell in 2018, where he discusses non-military ways to lower the risk of the US having to fight a war on both Western and Eastern borders of Asia at the same time. He also says that it may be necessary to "firmly slam the door to Russian Westward expansion" by inflicting a military defeat upon it in Ukraine, to teach it a lesson. Well, that military defeat is looking less and less likely.

So it would be better if the US leaves NATO, or limits its role within the bloc to responding to nuclear attack on a member state.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2025, 08:32:51 PM by Piers, nothing between the ears »

ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2326 on: July 03, 2025, 12:18:56 PM »
No, Russia has been warning NATO to stop expanding for decades, so you can't say NATO expansion is an excuse for pursuing territorial ambitions.
Russian expansion Westward is aimed at protecting itself, having been invaded by Napoleon and Germany in recent centuries. The Soviet Union, which NATO was designed to defend against, no longer exists. So why create a power imbalance that turns NATO  into a threat? Like it or not, balance of power is a thing. The OSCE says so, stating that a state should not increase its security at the expense of another's security. An imbalance of power creates a 'security dilemma'. This is where if one state increases its military strength, even if only for defensive purposes, a neighbouring state may see that as a threat, and take countermeasures, and so a cycle of escalation begins that can lead to war.

NATO expansion has driven Russia and China closer together - exactly what the US was trying to avoid, according to an article by Wess Mitchell in 2018, where he discusses non-military ways to lower the risk of the US having to fight a war on both Western and Eastern borders of Asia at the same time. He also says that it may be necessary to "firmly slam the door to Russian Westward expansion" by inflicting a military defeat upon it in Ukraine, to teach it a lesson. Well, that military defeat is looking less and less likely.

So it would be better if the US leaves NATO, or limits its role within the bloc to responding to nuclear attack on a member state.

I'm calling bullshit on that. NATO eastward expansion is the direct result of russian aggression. Russia's neighbours watched what happened in Georgia, Moldova, Chechnya (and now Ukraine) and came to the conclusion that despite the fall of the Soviet Union, russia hadn't changed at all: same beast, different incarnation. The only way to ensure it not happening to them was to join NATO. The proof of the pudding is Ukraine. You're just making excuses for russian imperialism.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2025, 12:34:42 PM by ad_orientem »
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2327 on: July 03, 2025, 12:34:31 PM »
You're just making excuses for russian imperialism.
Larry Johnson says this is not true - Putin has been warning NATO for two decades.

ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2328 on: July 03, 2025, 12:37:02 PM »
Larry Johnson says this is false, the evidence being that Putin has been warning NATO  for two decades.

Yeah? Well, Larry Johnson is a moron then! If Putin feels threatened by its neighbours wanting to protect themselves against russian aggression, Putin can eat a bag of dicks!
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2329 on: July 03, 2025, 12:49:33 PM »
Yeah? Well, Larry Johnson is a moron then! If Putin feels threatened by its neighbours wanting to protect themselves against russian aggression, Putin can eat a bag of dicks!
Let's hope both sides de-escalate soon.

ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2330 on: July 03, 2025, 12:56:47 PM »
Let's hope both sides de-escalate soon.

The only one escalating is russia. It can de-escalate by getting the fuck out of Ukraine.
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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2331 on: July 04, 2025, 09:15:37 AM »
Kyiv this morning. This should be moscow, instead.👇
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Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2332 on: July 04, 2025, 09:35:57 AM »
No, Russia has been warning NATO to stop expanding for decades, so you can't say NATO expansion is an excuse for pursuing territorial ambitions.

Russia can warn about NATO expansion, just like Trump can claim that he's imposing tariffs other countries will pay to balance trade deficits - that doesn't make it true. Russia can warn countries not to join NATO, unsurprisingly that's just made them more interested in joining the defensive alliance that might protect them from a country that thinks it has the right to dictate what alliances they can join.

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Russian expansion Westward is aimed at protecting itself, having been invaded by Napoleon and Germany in recent centuries.

Nonsense. Russia's expansion is trying to duplicate Napoloen and Hitler in empire-building, and warning NATO off is trying to ensure that it'll be easier when the time comes to send in the troops.

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The Soviet Union, which NATO was designed to defend against, no longer exists. So why create a power imbalance that turns NATO  into a threat?

Firstly, it doesn't turn NATO into a threat, that's the Russian lie that you keep regurgitating. Secondly, before the Soviet Union there was an expansionist Tsarist Russia, and in the modern day there's another expansionist Russian leadership class.

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Like it or not, balance of power is a thing.

Yes. And Russia doesn't have as much of it as it wants, this is part of its attempt to shift that. Supporting Ukraine is about maintaining the current balance of power, and not letting Russia shift it. If you want the balance of power, you should be advocating a Russian withdrawal, if they get what they came for you invite further destabilisation because Russia learns that military aggression gets results.

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The OSCE says so, stating that a state should not increase its security at the expense of another's security.

Ukraine joining economic or defensive alliances does not do so at the expense of Russia's security. Russian repeat invasions of Ukraine, on the other hand...

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An imbalance of power creates a 'security dilemma'. This is where if one state increases its military strength, even if only for defensive purposes, a neighbouring state may see that as a threat, and take countermeasures, and so a cycle of escalation begins that can lead to war.

Russia's recent history of invasions is the destablising force - Ukraine is seeking defensive alliances BECAUSE Russia is an aggressive, expansionist neighbour that needs defending against.

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NATO expansion has driven Russia and China closer together - exactly what the US was trying to avoid, according to an article by Wess Mitchell in 2018, where he discusses non-military ways to lower the risk of the US having to fight a war on both Western and Eastern borders of Asia at the same time.

Yes. Because whilst we can prepare for Russian aggression, we can't dictate terms to it - Russia is intent on expansion and military intervention, so the world becomes a less safe place whether we defend against it or not. NATO's expansion might be determining how that increase in tension plays out, but it's Russian aggression that's causing it.

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He also says that it may be necessary to "firmly slam the door to Russian Westward expansion" by inflicting a military defeat upon it in Ukraine, to teach it a lesson. Well, that military defeat is looking less and less likely.

Even if it happens now, it's probably not soon enough. Russia can return home but claim that they'd already been weakened by the protracted war, and big up their sacrifice at home, making a defeat a display of martyrdom and the flat-track bully of the West stepping in when the damage had already been done. To drive home the point the military victory really needed to be done and dusted by about a year ago at least. We could send in troops and free Ukraine - personally I think we still should - but it won't have the long-term impact now that it would have done earlier in the conflict. Whether I want it or not, of course, with Trump in the White House it's increasingly unlikely that's going to happen and - more significantly - it's unlikely any NATO member country will get directly involved as things stand, as it could be the trigger Trump decides to use to pull the US out of the alliance altogether.

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So it would be better if the US leaves NATO, or limits its role within the bloc to responding to nuclear attack on a member state.

No. It would be better if the US weren't led by a racist insular shit-stripe - give it a couple of years and we should be in a different situation. US relations won't recover instantly, that's a reputation that's been thoroughly shredded, but they can start.

O.
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Roses

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2333 on: July 04, 2025, 10:33:29 AM »
Let's hope both sides de-escalate soon.

Russia is the aggressor and responsible for the war, so should be the one to de-escalate.
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2334 on: July 09, 2025, 06:55:57 PM »
Firstly, it doesn't turn NATO into a threat,
Ok. Better, it turns NATO into a potential threat.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2025, 07:18:55 PM by Piers, nothing between the ears »

ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2335 on: July 09, 2025, 07:01:05 PM »
NATO has offensive capability, therefore it is a potential threat. This is a reason to not expand it. An analogy might be making owning certain types of weapons, eg machine guns, illegal to be sold to the public for self defense.

WTF?
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2336 on: July 09, 2025, 07:12:35 PM »
Russia's neighbours watched what happened in Georgia, Moldova, Chechnya (and now Ukraine) and came to the conclusion that despite the fall of the Soviet Union, russia hadn't changed at all: same beast, different incarnation.
After the Cold War ended Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic (not actually Russia's neighbours) were the first to join NATO. What was the threat to them from Russia at that time? If Russia was a potential threat to them, how is that different from how Russia sees an expansionist NATO (which has been pretty aggressive in the wars it engaged in)?
« Last Edit: July 09, 2025, 08:37:10 PM by Piers, nothing between the ears »

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2337 on: July 09, 2025, 07:19:27 PM »
WTF?
Bad analogy, sorry. Post modified.

ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2338 on: July 09, 2025, 09:05:08 PM »
After the Cold War ended Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic (not actually Russia's neighbours) were the first to join NATO. What was the threat to them from Russia at that time? If Russia was a potential threat to them, how is that different from how Russia sees an expansionist NATO (which has been pretty aggressive in the wars it engaged in)?

They had a history with russia. It said, never trust those bastards.
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Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2339 on: July 09, 2025, 10:38:57 PM »
They had a history with russia. It said, never trust those bastards.
Maybe I'm playing devil's advocate but wasn't the Warsaw Pact (which I'm assuming is what you mean) formed in response to NATO?

Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2340 on: July 10, 2025, 09:48:39 AM »
After the Cold War ended Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic (not actually Russia's neighbours) were the first to join NATO. What was the threat to them from Russia at that time? If Russia was a potential threat to them, how is that different from how Russia sees an expansionist NATO (which has been pretty aggressive in the wars it engaged in)?

Because Russia is intent on occupying and overcoming neighbouring territory, but nobody wants to occupy Russia - it's a shithole with third world facilities and fourth world infrastructure. It has some natural resources, but the investment that would be required to bring the facilities up to the point where they could compete on the world stage under a real regime wouldn't be worth it, the area is too sparsely populated to be run economically and the work needed to shift the culture away from the corruption and self-interest that's baked into it means it wouldn't be viable for decades at least. It's not something anyone wants - nobody wants Russia. Even the Russians don't want Russia, as soon as they're wealthy enough they emigrate somewhere else and keep draining their funds from it.

Even if the Western Nations showed any interest in occupation and expansion (which they don't), Russia isn't an attractive target. Russia is a potential threat to Europe - principally Eastern Europe, for now. Europe is not a threat to Russia, it's a threat to Russian expansionist intentions.

O.
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ad_orientem

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2341 on: July 10, 2025, 11:14:30 AM »
Because Russia is intent on occupying and overcoming neighbouring territory, but nobody wants to occupy Russia - it's a shithole with third world facilities and fourth world infrastructure. It has some natural resources, but the investment that would be required to bring the facilities up to the point where they could compete on the world stage under a real regime wouldn't be worth it, the area is too sparsely populated to be run economically and the work needed to shift the culture away from the corruption and self-interest that's baked into it means it wouldn't be viable for decades at least. It's not something anyone wants - nobody wants Russia. Even the Russians don't want Russia, as soon as they're wealthy enough they emigrate somewhere else and keep draining their funds from it.

Even if the Western Nations showed any interest in occupation and expansion (which they don't), Russia isn't an attractive target. Russia is a potential threat to Europe - principally Eastern Europe, for now. Europe is not a threat to Russia, it's a threat to Russian expansionist intentions.

O.

There's literally billboards like this all over russia, saying "russia's borders end nowhere".
« Last Edit: July 10, 2025, 11:19:23 AM by ad_orientem »
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Maeght

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2342 on: July 10, 2025, 05:54:50 PM »
Maybe I'm playing devil's advocate but wasn't the Warsaw Pact (which I'm assuming is what you mean) formed in response to NATO?

Yes it was.

Spud

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2343 on: July 13, 2025, 05:51:29 PM »
Because Russia is intent on occupying and overcoming neighbouring territory, but nobody wants to occupy Russia - it's a shithole with third world facilities and fourth world infrastructure. It has some natural resources, but the investment that would be required to bring the facilities up to the point where they could compete on the world stage under a real regime wouldn't be worth it, the area is too sparsely populated to be run economically and the work needed to shift the culture away from the corruption and self-interest that's baked into it means it wouldn't be viable for decades at least. It's not something anyone wants - nobody wants Russia. Even the Russians don't want Russia, as soon as they're wealthy enough they emigrate somewhere else and keep draining their funds from it.

Even if the Western Nations showed any interest in occupation and expansion (which they don't), Russia isn't an attractive target. Russia is a potential threat to Europe - principally Eastern Europe, for now. Europe is not a threat to Russia, it's a threat to Russian expansionist intentions.

O.
Hitler wanted Russian territory to expand the German population. Napoleon wanted to subdued Russia in order to have control over Europe.
But whether you are right or not, Putin would answer, as he said at a recent press conference, that we don't get to decide what constitutes a threat to their national security, they do.

Outrider

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2344 on: July 14, 2025, 09:27:15 AM »
Hitler wanted Russian territory to expand the German population. Napoleon wanted to subdued Russia in order to have control over Europe.

And 100 years ago Russia had the resources people were looking for, and something approaching a useful civic structure - these days it doesn't have those.

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But whether you are right or not, Putin would answer, as he said at a recent press conference, that we don't get to decide what constitutes a threat to their national security, they do.

He does. He also gets to choose whether to be honest about what those threats are, or whether to lie for political purposes. I'll let you guess which I believe he's doing.

O.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Arming the Ukrainians
« Reply #2345 on: July 23, 2025, 02:27:38 PM »
Will be interesting to see the reaction from the UK govt to this from Ukraine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9w19pl84r8o