Religion and Ethics Forum
General Category => Politics & Current Affairs => Topic started by: Nearly Sane on April 21, 2017, 03:55:54 PM
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Could be Macron and Le Pen but very close
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
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This is only the first round.
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This is only the first round.
which given it will result in the two in the run off is hugely significant
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I hope that Le Pen doesn't get in, her party is the equivalent of the National Front! >:(
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I hope that Le Pen doesn't get in, her party is the equivalent of the National Front! >:(
That is really perceptive of you, Floo.
And do you know what? Its name, in French, is Front National.
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That is really perceptive of you, Floo.
And do you know what? Its name, in French, is Front National.
What is that in English then?
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What is that in English then?
That is really hard to work out! ;D
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which given it will result in the two in the run off is hugely significant
But as you said it looks like Macron and Le Pen, but also that it looks close. But perhaps we could wait and see who are in the second round and then start to sweat....
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What is that in English then?
The sweet and lovely party!!! ;D
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Hoping Le Pen wins. Good for Europe.
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Hoping Le Pen wins. Good for Europe.
That says it all where you are concerned; it is not to your credit! >:( That mob is as bad as Hitler and the Nazis
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But as you said it looks like Macron and Le Pen, but also that it looks close. But perhaps we could wait and see who are in the second round and then start to sweat....
Being interested in the outcome of Sunday isn't 'sweating'
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Being interested in the outcome of Sunday isn't 'sweating'
So you think all possible outcomes will be a good thing, no matter who eventually wins?
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So you think all possible outcomes will be a good thing, no matter who eventually wins?
No.
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What is that in English then?
UKIP
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That says it all where you are concerned; it is not to your credit! >:( That mob is as bad as Hitler and the Nazis
Classic Floo. Yes, the French NF killed millions of Jews and Gypsies, Russians etc.
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Classic Floo. Yes, the Grench NF killed millions of Jews and Gypsies, Russians etc.
Back then they probably would have cheered the Nazis on!
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Back then they probably would have cheered the Nazis on!
Just like all the Arabs the neo-liberal elite are letting into Europe then. Apparently Mein Kampf is very popular in the Middle-East.
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No.
So at some point you may start to sweat because the outcome could be a threat to your ideal position.....?
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Just heard on the Beeb that many are going to abstain which will favour Le Pen. Their reason being that there is no one worth voting for and that they are all liars. Probably the position I will take for the coming GE.
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Hoping Le Pen wins. Good for Europe.
Are you mad?!?
Anyhow she won't win as she will be soundly beaten in the second round, by whichever of Macron or Fillon gets through.
Her only chance would be a run off between her and Melenchon but I think that's very unlikely.
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Are you mad?!?
Anyhow she won't win as she will be soundly beaten in the second round, by whichever of Macron or Fillon gets through.
Her only chance would be a run off between her and Melenchon but I think that's very unlikely.
But Le Pen winning would be a lot more fun to watch. ;D
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Are you mad?!?
Anyhow she won't win as she will be soundly beaten in the second round, by whichever of Macron or Fillon gets through.
Her only chance would be a run off between her and Melenchon but I think that's very unlikely.
The polls were wrong about Btexit and Trump.
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The polls were wrong about Btexit and Trump.
Not true actually.
The polls prior to brexit bounced between remain and leave leads - the reason why people were surprised was because many assumed their would be a late swing to remain.
The polls in the US presidential election (which are predictions of overall vote share) were pretty well spot on, predicting a couple of point lead for Clinton in the nation vote share. Trump won because he picked up the key states he needed - the French presidential run off will be a straight winner on national vote share.
However the key point is that in brexit and US presidential elections the polls were showing the two sides pretty close to neck and neck. In the French run off the polls are showing either Macron or Fillon beating LePen by about 65% to 35% - that's a massive gap, nothing like the neck and neck reported by the polls in the other 2 cases.
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That might be the case but I'm hoping.
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But Le Pen winning would be a lot more fun to watch. ;D
Le Penis mightier than the sword!
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The polls were wrong about Btexit and Trump.
No they weren't. The Brexit polls were within the quoted margin of error.
The Trump polls were correct, more or less except that certain states went the wrong way. In the end Clinton actually won the popular vote.
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Macron v Le Pen
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39686993
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Macron v Le Pen
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39686993
So Macron will be the next president.
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So Macron will be the next president.
I hope so.
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So Macron will be the next president.
One hopes so, but as we have seen from the UK referendum, the USA presidential election, the Turkish referendum, that it is not always the rational argument which prevails.
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One hopes so, but as we have seen from the UK referendum, the USA presidential election, the Turkish referendum, that it is not always the rational argument which prevails.
While I disagree with the decisions, I think it is too much of a generalisation to portray those you disagree with as devoid of rational arguments. Rather their values may be different.
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While I disagree with the decisions, I think it is too much of a generalisation to portray those you disagree with as devoid of rational arguments. Rather their values may be different.
Possibly, but in each of these cases the protagonists for the winning side relied mainly on emotional argument to gain support.
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No, Brexit was won by lying as much as emotion, if not more. The arguments seemed rational (more money for the NHS) but were completely untrue.
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One hopes so, but as we have seen from the UK referendum, the USA presidential election, the Turkish referendum, that it is not always the rational argument which prevails.
If LePen cannot beat Macron in the first round, how is she going to beat him in the run-off, when overwhelmingly the supporters of Fillon, Melenchon and Benoit will jump to Macron rather than LePen.
The polling on a Macron/LePen run-off is constantly about 65%/35% in favour of Macron. That is massively different to Trump/Brexit/Turkey where polling showed the two sides pretty well neck and neck on popular vote.
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I like the idea of a new emergent party with centrist/liberal policies. If only it would happen here.
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Possibly, but in each of these cases the protagonists for the winning side relied mainly on emotional argument to gain support.
Remember you are not just talking about the protagonists here but millions of voters. Further it seems to me that much of the arguments on both sides are emotional, and sometimes lying as mentioned by Rhiannon. The whole portrayal of a half of the electorate as either dupes or racist sexist homophobes seems to me an emotional argument.
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No, Brexit was won by lying as much as emotion, if not more. The arguments seemed rational (more money for the NHS) but were completely untrue.
I agree.
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I like the idea of a new emergent party with centrist/liberal policies. If only it would happen here.
If we can get rid of our "first-past-the-post" electoral system then it would become more likely.
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While I disagree with the decisions, I think it is too much of a generalisation to portray those you disagree with as devoid of rational arguments. Rather their values may be different.
Please read what I said, which was "it is not always the rational argument that prevails".
Where, in that statement, have I said that there were no rational arguments? I have not said "devoid of rational arguments" - this is solely your misrepresentation.
Now, if you consider the writing on the side of the bus, it was clearly intended to be a "rational" statement, but can you conceive of a subject in the UK political sphere which has a greater emotional impact than the National Health Service?
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Please read what I said, which was "it is not always the rational argument that prevails".
Where, in that statement, have I said that there were no rational arguments? I have not said "devoid of rational arguments" - this is solely your misrepresentation.
Now, if you consider the writing on the side of the bus, it was clearly intended to be a "rational" statement, but can you conceive of a subject in the UK political sphere which has a greater emotional impact than the National Health Service?
Your use of the words 'the rational argument' implies that you see the other side as not being rational. And individual instances of wrong facts doesn't illustrate that the other argument(s) was/were the logical ones.
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Your use of the words 'the rational argument' implies that you see the other side as not being rational. And individual instances of wrong facts doesn't illustrate that the other argument(s) was/were the logical ones.
Actually it was the attitude of HH was endemic on remain, possibly played a part in their defeat.
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Interesting move from Le Pen
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39696861
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Actually it was the attitude of HH was endemic on remain, possibly played a part in their defeat.
Was it? Seems like you are indulging in another lazy generalisation?
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I see Le Pen is stepping down as party leader, albeit temporarily, in the run up to the next stage of the election.
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The move from Le Pen is certainly understandable. I think it's perhaps a but late to have the effect needed. She has obviously seen that an insider such as Macron can benefit from not being too closely aligned to a traditional party, but the En Marche 'movement' has been going for a year. It's not as easy to detoxify in 2 weeks.
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"Detoxify"- interesting word. I don't claim to have any special knowledge of the French mindset, but I do think that we are looking at the French elections through a cultural filter.
As I have said on a number of times, I own property in France. My canton (ie several communes as a single electoral district) returned a FN representative to a political body recently. (You must excuse my lack of information - not being resident I don't have a vote, and it took place when I was not in France). Several such members were returned.
In rural areas certainly, the FN is not seen as toxic. In contrast with the UK, where living in the countryside is seen as desirable, the majority of French people living in rural areas in France are elderly and not always particularly well off. The attraction of French country properties to the British (or Dutch or Belgians) is their availability, young French people prefer to live in cities.
Muslims form a rather larger proportion of the population in France than in Britain.The French state is less accommodating of multi-culturalism than is the British state and in some places Maghrebian communities have become ghettoised.
I think that Marine Le Pen has stepped down - temporarily - from the post of party leader simply to give her time on the stump.
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"Detoxify"- interesting word. I don't claim to have any special knowledge of the French mindset, but I do think that we are looking at the French elections through a cultural filter.
As I have said on a number of times, I own property in France. My canton (ie several communes as a single electoral district) returned a FN representative to a political body recently. (You must excuse my lack of information - not being resident I don't have a vote, and it took place when I was not in France). Several such members were returned.
In rural areas certainly, the FN is not seen as toxic. In contrast with the UK, where living in the countryside is seen as desirable, the majority of French people living in rural areas in France are elderly and not always particularly well off. The attraction of French country properties to the British (or Dutch or Belgians) is their availability, young French people prefer to live in cities.
Muslims form a rather larger proportion of the population in France than in Britain.The French state is less accommodating of multi-culturalism than is the British state and in some places Maghrebian communities have become ghettoised.
I think that Marine Le Pen has stepped down - temporarily - from the post of party leader simply to give her time on the stump.
It is a rather odd move in my opinion.
She isn't going to be able to distance herself from the FN - there simply aren't going to be millions of people thinking 'couldn't ever have voted fro her while she was FN, but now she's stepped down temporarily for a couple of week, that's fine'.
I don't understand the more time on the stump either - as a candidate in a run off of 2 in less than 2 weeks she will be working 100% on her election regardless of whether she is still leader of FN or not.
On the broader issue of rural France - you may indeed be right, but there simply aren't enough people there to outweigh the cities, towns and suburbs. And on the greater proportions of muslims - I presume most have a vote themselves so at best cancelling out an anti-muslim extremist block.
Frankly I can't see any possible way that LePen can turn this around. The only possibility is some massive seismic shock scandal against Macron.
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Obviously the FN isn't toxic to those who vote for it, but we gave been here before with her father funning in the second round, and losing badly. The votes she needs to get to win are from people who would normally not vote for the FN. Further let's remember that she has specific Cally been working on detoxifying the FN brand already by moving from her father's positions.
Also, as covered Macron has managed to avoid the idea of being as much of an establishment figure by running with a movement, and not a party. Thus cleverly has outflanked Le Pen's position of the outsider, a role that has been of benefit recently, no matter what the actual political position has been, or indeed if anyone is actually an outsider.
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Actually it was the attitude of HH was endemic on remain, possibly played a part in their defeat.
And Trump.
If you tell people that they are idiots or worse, it turns out they don't voter the way you want them to, they vote in a way that sends a big "fuck you" to you.
If my Facebook feed is anything to go by, it's happening again - not that the race is that close anyway.
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Actually it was the attitude of HH was endemic on remain, possibly played a part in their defeat.
Forgive me. I don't understand this.
What have I done?
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If LePen cannot beat Macron in the first round, how is she going to beat him in the run-off, when overwhelmingly the supporters of Fillon, Melenchon and Benoit will jump to Macron rather than LePen.
The polling on a Macron/LePen run-off is constantly about 65%/35% in favour of Macron. That is massively different to Trump/Brexit/Turkey where polling showed the two sides pretty well neck and neck on popular vote.
The only way that Le Pencil can win and not be erased is that some scandal comes out about Macron and he is turned into Micron.
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I like the idea of a new emergent party with centrist/liberal policies. If only it would happen here.
He's a banker!!! He'll work to make the elites even richer.
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Interesting move from Le Pen
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39696861
I can't see how that's going to help her.
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So looks like Macron, have lots of doubts despite my virtual timeline being crowded with apparently happy people.
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The Beeb are declaring Macron in a 'decisive victory'.
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The Beeb are declaring Macron in a 'decisive victory'.
ah my doubts are about Macron, not him winning.
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Yes, I got that.
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A banker and economic liberal. The 1%ers must be well pleased. No. It was never in doubt. They always get their man.
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A banker and economic liberal. The 1%ers must be well pleased. No. It was never in doubt. They always get their man.
Yep.... all by design..
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I am glad Macron won.
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Some analysis of the vote from the the FT
https://www.ft.com/content/62d782d6-31a7-11e7-9555-23ef563ecf9a
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The analysis you direct us to is behind a pay wall.
If you think that it has something meaningful to say, why don't you make a summary of it?
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In six months he will be as unpopular as his predecessor.
Looking at some of the analysis people abstained or spoiled papers in huge numbers. There is something disturbing about what may lie beneath the result with the political elite brushing over the cracks.
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Looking at some of the analysis people abstained or spoiled papers in huge numbers.
But it is also the case that Macron received more votes and a greater % of the vote than in any presidential election since it became a two horse, direct election in 1965, with the exception of Chirac's victory in 2002.
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But it is also the case that Macron received more votes and a greater % of the vote than in any presidential election since it became a two horse, direct election in 1965, with the exception of Chirac's victory in 2002.
True, however people also voted for him as the least bad candidate and to make sure Le Pen did not win.
He is not a popular winner with many French so I read.
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True, however people also voted for him as the least bad candidate and to make sure Le Pen did not win.
Not in the first round where, against all the other candidates, he topped the poll.
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Not in the first round where, against all the other candidates, he topped the poll.
Can't argue with that, even though I find it puzzling you need to refer to it as I would expect voters to vote for their man in the first round. However when they have been knocked out people will not necessarily vote for their favourite hence the margin of popular victory may not be what is seems to be on paper.
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Can't argue with that, even though I find it puzzling you need to refer to it as I would expect voters to vote for their man in the first round. However when they have been knocked out people will not necessarily vote for their favourite hence the margin of popular victory may not be what is seems to be on paper.
In the first round there are loads of options so allegiances are very split. In the second round voters coalesce around their preferred candidate of the final two, albeit someone who might not have been their preferred candidate of eleven in the first round.
This is how it has always worked in the French presidential election. And Macron's 24% in the first round isn't totally out of kilter with first round winners in previous elections, which has been as low as 19% and tends to be lower with a range of broadly credible candidates (in popularity terms) as was the case this year which rather splits the first round vote.
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Can't argue with that, even though I find it puzzling you need to refer to it as I would expect voters to vote for their man in the first round. However when they have been knocked out people will not necessarily vote for their favourite hence the margin of popular victory may not be what is seems to be on paper.
As the French say -
In the first round we vote with our hearts, in the second round we vote with our heads.
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You give me the impression that you believe that every voter who voted for Macron is a person who supports him and his policies, and nobody voted for him to simply vote against Le Pen.
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You give me the impression that you believe that every voter who voted for Macron is a person who supports him and his policies, and nobody voted for him to simply vote against Le Pen.
No, I'm merely saying that this is how the French characterise their presidential election behaviour.
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The analysis you direct us to is behind a pay wall.
Not for me.
If you think that it has something meaningful to say, why don't you make a summary of it?
That would be rather hard, it was a detailed analysis of the vote. It looked at a lot of different aspects.
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You give me the impression that you believe that every voter who voted for Macron is a person who supports him and his policies, and nobody voted for him to simply vote against Le Pen.
Not sure whether that comment is aimed at me.
But if so, no I didn't - I was have clear that the second round voters coalesce around their preferred candidate of the final two, albeit someone who might not have been their preferred candidate of eleven in the first round. And of course that also means voting for one person to ensure that the other doesn't get in, which is clearly more starkly in focus in a two horse race.