Author Topic: French Presidential Election  (Read 8202 times)

Harrowby Hall

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #50 on: April 25, 2017, 04:29:54 PM »
Actually it was the attitude of HH was endemic on remain, possibly played a part in their defeat.

Forgive me. I don't understand this.

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Jack Knave

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #51 on: April 25, 2017, 08:05:05 PM »
If LePen cannot beat Macron in the first round, how is she going to beat him in the run-off, when overwhelmingly the supporters of Fillon, Melenchon and Benoit will jump to Macron rather than LePen.

The polling on a Macron/LePen run-off is constantly about 65%/35% in favour of Macron. That is massively different to Trump/Brexit/Turkey where polling showed the two sides pretty well neck and neck on popular vote.
The only way that Le Pencil can win and not be erased is that some scandal comes out about Macron and he is turned into Micron.

Jack Knave

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #52 on: April 25, 2017, 08:06:09 PM »
I like the idea of a new emergent party with centrist/liberal policies. If only it would happen here.
He's a banker!!! He'll work to make the elites even richer.

Jack Knave

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #53 on: April 25, 2017, 08:08:46 PM »
Interesting move from Le Pen

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39696861
I can't see how that's going to help her.

Nearly Sane

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #54 on: May 07, 2017, 07:24:27 PM »
So looks like Macron, have lots of doubts despite my virtual timeline being crowded with apparently happy people.

Rhiannon

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #55 on: May 07, 2017, 07:49:50 PM »
The Beeb are declaring Macron in a 'decisive victory'.

Nearly Sane

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #56 on: May 07, 2017, 08:09:14 PM »
The Beeb are declaring Macron in a 'decisive victory'.
ah my doubts are about Macron, not him winning.

Rhiannon

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #57 on: May 07, 2017, 08:54:02 PM »
Yes, I got that.


ad_orientem

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #58 on: May 07, 2017, 09:27:02 PM »
A banker and economic liberal. The 1%ers must be well pleased. No. It was never in doubt. They always get their man.
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SweetPea

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #59 on: May 07, 2017, 09:43:44 PM »
A banker and economic liberal. The 1%ers must be well pleased. No. It was never in doubt. They always get their man.

Yep.... all by design..
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floo

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #60 on: May 08, 2017, 08:18:29 AM »
I am glad Macron won.

Nearly Sane

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #61 on: May 08, 2017, 08:44:39 AM »

Harrowby Hall

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #62 on: May 08, 2017, 10:50:54 AM »
The analysis you direct us to is behind a pay wall.

If you think that it has something meaningful to say, why don't you make a summary of it?
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JP

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #63 on: May 08, 2017, 12:53:28 PM »
In six months he will be as unpopular as his predecessor.

Looking at some of the analysis people abstained or spoiled papers in huge numbers. There is something disturbing about what may lie beneath the result with the political elite brushing over the cracks.
How can something so perfect be so flawed.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #64 on: May 08, 2017, 03:40:44 PM »
Looking at some of the analysis people abstained or spoiled papers in huge numbers.
But it is also the case that Macron received more votes and a greater % of the vote than in any presidential election since it became a two horse, direct election in 1965, with the exception of Chirac's victory in 2002.

JP

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #65 on: May 09, 2017, 12:09:21 PM »
But it is also the case that Macron received more votes and a greater % of the vote than in any presidential election since it became a two horse, direct election in 1965, with the exception of Chirac's victory in 2002.

True, however people also voted for him as the least bad candidate and to make sure Le Pen did not win.

He is not a popular winner with many French so I read.
How can something so perfect be so flawed.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #66 on: May 09, 2017, 02:08:12 PM »
True, however people also voted for him as the least bad candidate and to make sure Le Pen did not win.
Not in the first round where, against all the other candidates, he topped the poll.

JP

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #67 on: May 09, 2017, 03:44:26 PM »
Not in the first round where, against all the other candidates, he topped the poll.

Can't argue with that, even though I find it puzzling you need to refer to it as I would expect voters to vote for their man in the first round. However when they have been knocked out people will not necessarily vote for their favourite hence the margin of popular victory may not be what is seems to be on paper.
How can something so perfect be so flawed.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #68 on: May 09, 2017, 04:31:05 PM »
Can't argue with that, even though I find it puzzling you need to refer to it as I would expect voters to vote for their man in the first round. However when they have been knocked out people will not necessarily vote for their favourite hence the margin of popular victory may not be what is seems to be on paper.
In the first round there are loads of options so allegiances are very split. In the second round voters coalesce around their preferred candidate of the final two, albeit someone who might not have been their preferred candidate of eleven in the first round.

This is how it has always worked in the French presidential election. And Macron's 24% in the first round isn't totally out of kilter with first round winners in previous elections, which has been as low as 19% and tends to be lower with a range of broadly credible candidates (in popularity terms) as was the case this year which rather splits the first round vote.

Harrowby Hall

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #69 on: May 09, 2017, 05:12:31 PM »
Can't argue with that, even though I find it puzzling you need to refer to it as I would expect voters to vote for their man in the first round. However when they have been knocked out people will not necessarily vote for their favourite hence the margin of popular victory may not be what is seems to be on paper.

As the French say -

  In the first round we vote with our hearts, in the second round we vote with our heads.
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JP

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #70 on: May 09, 2017, 06:33:35 PM »
You give me the impression that you believe that every voter who voted for Macron is a person who supports him and his policies, and nobody voted for him to simply vote against Le Pen.
How can something so perfect be so flawed.

Harrowby Hall

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #71 on: May 09, 2017, 06:59:54 PM »
You give me the impression that you believe that every voter who voted for Macron is a person who supports him and his policies, and nobody voted for him to simply vote against Le Pen.

No, I'm merely saying that this is how the French characterise their presidential election behaviour.
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jeremyp

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #72 on: May 09, 2017, 07:14:44 PM »
The analysis you direct us to is behind a pay wall.
Not for me.

Quote
If you think that it has something meaningful to say, why don't you make a summary of it?
That would be rather hard, it was a detailed analysis of the vote. It looked at a lot of different aspects.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: French Presidential Election
« Reply #73 on: May 10, 2017, 05:54:36 PM »
You give me the impression that you believe that every voter who voted for Macron is a person who supports him and his policies, and nobody voted for him to simply vote against Le Pen.
Not sure whether that comment is aimed at me.

But if so, no I didn't - I was have clear that the second round voters coalesce around their preferred candidate of the final two, albeit someone who might not have been their preferred candidate of eleven in the first round. And of course that also means voting for one person to ensure that the other doesn't get in, which is clearly more starkly in focus in a two horse race.