Are Labour Dead In The Water?

[Jack Knave]

After their so called hard-look-at-themselves to why they flopped in the GE report, and that some Labour MPs are calling it a white wash are they now dead due to their blindness?

If they don't face the facts and reality of the politics concerning the voters then they are left with two options both of which don't look at the real situation for the voter. They either have the old New Labour approach which looks inwardly at the party machine, and is full of spin and lies, or they have the Lefties led by Corbyn, who although raises some issues that the voters feel are affecting them the Left's idea of how to deal with them are set in the past and/or are heavily coloured by their ideology and not reality.

I see a similar problem looming up for the Tories, as their grass roots are far from happy with the pro EU and party machine focus that the people at the top champion.

Any thoughts on the matter people?

[ProfessorDavey]

After their so called hard-look-at-themselves to why they flopped in the GE report, and that some Labour MPs are calling it a white wash are they now dead due to their blindness?

If they don't face the facts and reality of the politics concerning the voters then they are left with two options both of which don't look at the real situation for the voter. They either have the old New Labour approach which looks inwardly at the party machine, and is full of spin and lies, or they have the Lefties led by Corbyn, who although raises some issues that the voters feel are affecting them the Left's idea of how to deal with them are set in the past and/or are heavily coloured by their ideology and not reality.

I see a similar problem looming up for the Tories, as their grass roots are far from happy with the pro EU and party machine focus that the people at the top champion.

Any thoughts on the matter people?

They need a leader who looks like a credible Prime Minister to the electorate. They didn't have one in Miliband, they haven't in Corbyn, but if they kick the latter out and replace him with someone who can communicate with the electorate and looks prime ministerial all is not lost.

Whether it is right or not every election has been won by the party with the most credible leader (and leadership ratings are a sure fire way of predicting outcome of elections), plus also to a certain extent (although this is linked to the former) by the party perceived to be the more centrist of the two main parties at the time of the election.

[Nearly Sane]

They had no chance of winning in 2020 as the boundaries will change. They could have had any leader. They would lose. There us only one chance for the Tories not to win in 2020 and that is a fight in the Tories over the EU referendum. Given that the Liberals are screwed for the foreseeable future, UKIP can manage to have a split with1 MP, the Liberals are screwed and if they get 15 seat as will be a ecstatic, that's it.

[wigginhall]

I think it's the electoral cycle.  Any party that wins 3 terms tends to suffer a severe backlash, not just from the electorate, but internally, that is, they become exhausted and jaded.   Thus, after 1997, the Tories had a sort of nervous breakdown, and didn't win again for 18 years.   Labour are going through the same thing, and I don't think it would matter whether left or right were in charge.   It's partly remedial, since each party is forced to examine itself or fall apart, or both, as it has its breakdown, and in the end, this rejuvenates. 

[Rhiannon]

The quite utterly terrifying thing is that Labour's weakness means Osborne is likely to be PM.

[Nearly Sane]

The quite utterly terrifying thing is that Labour's weakness means Osborne is likely to be PM.

Or Boris

[Hope]

Or Boris

Perhaps even Theresa.

[L.A.]

They need a leader who looks like a credible Prime Minister to the electorate. They didn't have one in Miliband, they haven't in Corbyn, but if they kick the latter out and replace him with someone who can communicate with the electorate and looks prime ministerial all is not lost.

Whether it is right or not every election has been won by the party with the most credible leader (and leadership ratings are a sure fire way of predicting outcome of elections), plus also to a certain extent (although this is linked to the former) by the party perceived to be the more centrist of the two main parties at the time of the election.

They allowed the unions to force the wrong Miliband on them, then decided to re-live the 80's - quite unbelievable.

For the Conservatives it is like winning the Lottery

(Future historians will no doubt regard this as Labours Corbyniferous period  )

[jakswan]

They allowed the unions to force the wrong Miliband on them, then decided to re-live the 80's - quite unbelievable.

For the Conservatives it is like winning the Lottery

(Future historians will no doubt regard this as Labours Corbyniferous period  )

Agree I suspect they could have pushed Tories into at least coalition with the other brother. The idealistic left are in control now, it will reduce the party to a protest group.

Although I'm not sure it can be any other way Labour would have to deal with the SNP who are toxic to a great deal of the electorate. If the Tories had planned to have divided and ruled they couldn't have done a better job.

[Gordon]

The upcoming Holyrood election will be interesting. If Labour do as badly here as it seems they might, such as ending up with only 'List' seats having failed to win any of the FFP ones or, and even worse for them, if they are also overtaken by the Tories here then they may well have lost the chance of ever recovering their historical rump of Scottish Westminster MPs that they'd need to have even an outside chance in 2020.

If Labour really are finished in Scotland then the result of the EU referendum might not matter a great deal to them. If the decision is to stay in then Labour don't seem likely to benefit electorally, since even with tweaks to the EU deal that is the status quo so they are still where they are now, and if the UK decision is to exit but within Scotland we vote to stay then, as Blair said yesterday, the UK may well break up - either way Labour look doomed as a credible government even if that is just within England and Wales. I suppose another factor of a 'stay in' outcome is whether the Tories would fragment, but even then this may not help Labour.

One way or another it seems we are living in 'interesting times'!
 

[L.A.]

Agree I suspect they could have pushed Tories into at least coalition with the other brother. The idealistic left are in control now, it will reduce the party to a protest group.

Although I'm not sure it can be any other way Labour would have to deal with the SNP who are toxic to a great deal of the electorate. If the Tories had planned to have divided and ruled they couldn't have done a better job.

It seems to be a ritual cleansing that the party have to go through. Eventually it will occur to someone they are becoming irrelevant to the vast majority of voters.

[Jack Knave]

They need a leader who looks like a credible Prime Minister to the electorate. They didn't have one in Miliband, they haven't in Corbyn, but if they kick the latter out and replace him with someone who can communicate with the electorate and looks prime ministerial all is not lost.

Whether it is right or not every election has been won by the party with the most credible leader (and leadership ratings are a sure fire way of predicting outcome of elections), plus also to a certain extent (although this is linked to the former) by the party perceived to be the more centrist of the two main parties at the time of the election.

That was the gist of my OP, that they have a binary choice both of which are not what you rightly say they need. Where will this leader come from?

[Jack Knave]

They had no chance of winning in 2020 as the boundaries will change. They could have had any leader. They would lose. There us only one chance for the Tories not to win in 2020 and that is a fight in the Tories over the EU referendum. Given that the Liberals are screwed for the foreseeable future, UKIP can manage to have a split with1 MP, the Liberals are screwed and if they get 15 seat as will be a ecstatic, that's it.

What about external factors that would open the eyes to the majority of the electorate to the sheer incompetence of the whole system and major parties and people truly start to move away from the main two? Desperate times require desperate measures for the voters?

[ProfessorDavey]

That was the gist of my OP, that they have a binary choice both of which are not what you rightly say they need. Where will this leader come from?

Where indeed will that leader come from.

Well history suggests that leaders who have won general elections from opposition aren't obviously apparent prior to their becoming leader of the opposition. So of the most recent examples, being Cameron, Blair and Thatcher - none had a massively high profile before winning leadership of the opposition. So there is probably someone on those opposition back benches (that's where I think they'll be because they will need to be a non-Corbynite). I've always liked Chuka and sad he pulled out last summer, but biding his time might look to be a smart strategy in the long run. Then there is Dan Jarvis, regularly talked about as a potential leader and Lisa Nandy (if you think that a credible leader needs to come from the left of the party - I don't by the way).

[Jack Knave]

I think it's the electoral cycle.  Any party that wins 3 terms tends to suffer a severe backlash, not just from the electorate, but internally, that is, they become exhausted and jaded.   Thus, after 1997, the Tories had a sort of nervous breakdown, and didn't win again for 18 years.   Labour are going through the same thing, and I don't think it would matter whether left or right were in charge.   It's partly remedial, since each party is forced to examine itself or fall apart, or both, as it has its breakdown, and in the end, this rejuvenates.

I sense though that these are different times in the sense that the Tories could also crack up due to the referendum, the bullying scandal with Clarke (for get his first name) and the top down hierarchy that many grass roots now resent. many could move away from the main parties.

[ProfessorDavey]

I sense though that these are different times in the sense that the Tories could also crack up due to the referendum, the bullying scandal with Clarke (for get his first name) and the top down hierarchy that many grass roots now resent. many could move away from the main parties.

The Tories have benefited massively from a split opposition (just as they did in the mid 80s) - so don't forget they haven't attained more than 37% of the popular vote for nigh on 25 years - so there is no great seismic shift. These are levels that lost parties elections through the 1960s and 70s.

[Jack Knave]

The upcoming Holyrood election will be interesting. If Labour do as badly here as it seems they might, such as ending up with only 'List' seats having failed to win any of the FFP ones or, and even worse for them, if they are also overtaken by the Tories here then they may well have lost the chance of ever recovering their historical rump of Scottish Westminster MPs that they'd need to have even an outside chance in 2020.

If Labour really are finished in Scotland then the result of the EU referendum might not matter a great deal to them. If the decision is to stay in then Labour don't seem likely to benefit electorally, since even with tweaks to the EU deal that is the status quo so they are still where they are now, and if the UK decision is to exit but within Scotland we vote to stay then, as Blair said yesterday, the UK may well break up - either way Labour look doomed as a credible government even if that is just within England and Wales. I suppose another factor of a 'stay in' outcome is whether the Tories would fragment, but even then this may not help Labour.

One way or another it seems we are living in 'interesting times'!
 

Yeap, Scotland is a thorn in the side for Labour.

Actually that's an excellent point. Regardless of what Labour do (say they get a great leader that inspires etc.) I can't see them getting Scotland back. Why bother with a UK centre left party when you have a national one right on your doorstep.

[Jack Knave]

It seems to be a ritual cleansing that the party have to go through. Eventually it will occur to someone they are becoming irrelevant to the vast majority of voters.

[ProfessorDavey]

Why bother with a UK centre left party when you have a national one right on your doorstep.

Because you also end up with a right wing party in Westminster which still greatly affects what happens north of the border.

[Nearly Sane]

Because you also end up with a right wing party in Westminster which still greatly affects what happens north of the border.

And would have been the same if every Scottish seat was Labour at last election. and arguably they were right wing then anyway.

[ProfessorDavey]

And would have been the same if every Scottish seat was Labour at last election. and arguably they were right wing then anyway.

Not necessarily as the threat of the SNP being in coalition certainly tipped a few seats south of the border blue. Don't forget the 'scare' tactics of Miliband being in Salmond's pocket was one of the main campaigning tools for the Tories - or at least it was in England.

[Jack Knave]

Where indeed will that leader come from.

Well history suggests that leaders who have won general elections from opposition aren't obviously apparent prior to their becoming leader of the opposition. So of the most recent examples, being Cameron, Blair and Thatcher - none had a massively high profile before winning leadership of the opposition. So there is probably someone on those opposition back benches (that's where I think they'll be because they will need to be a non-Corbynite). I've always liked Chuka and sad he pulled out last summer, but biding his time might look to be a smart strategy in the long run. Then there is Dan Jarvis, regularly talked about as a potential leader and Lisa Nandy (if you think that a credible leader needs to come from the left of the party - I don't by the way).

I think my analysis is that they are stymied by Scotland. Scotland is lost to them and in part because Westminster is such a self-serving inward looking institution because the main parties are.

[jakswan]

The upcoming Holyrood election will be interesting. If Labour do as badly here as it seems they might, such as ending up with only 'List' seats having failed to win any of the FFP ones or, and even worse for them, if they are also overtaken by the Tories here then they may well have lost the chance of ever recovering their historical rump of Scottish Westminster MPs that they'd need to have even an outside chance in 2020.

If Labour really are finished in Scotland then the result of the EU referendum might not matter a great deal to them. If the decision is to stay in then Labour don't seem likely to benefit electorally, since even with tweaks to the EU deal that is the status quo so they are still where they are now, and if the UK decision is to exit but within Scotland we vote to stay then, as Blair said yesterday, the UK may well break up - either way Labour look doomed as a credible government even if that is just within England and Wales. I suppose another factor of a 'stay in' outcome is whether the Tories would fragment, but even then this may not help Labour.

One way or another it seems we are living in 'interesting times'!

Yes I see the EU referendum as our chance to vote on Scottish independence!

[Nearly Sane]

Not necessarily as the threat of the SNP being in coalition certainly tipped a few seats south of the border blue. Don't forget the 'scare' tactics of Miliband being in Salmond's pocket was one of the main campaigning tools for the Tories - or at least it was in England.

That doesn't even begin to make sense. If Labour had all the Scottish seats, they would still be in opposition, simple fact. Randomly,  making up numbers about what might have happened if things weren't as they were is gibberish. As for the scare tactics, these would be the ones that Labour backed up in their attempt to be right wing.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think my analysis is that they are stymied by Scotland. Scotland is lost to them and in part because Westminster is such a self-serving inward looking institution because the main parties are.

But Scotland was lost to the Tories from 92 onwards, didn't stop them winning in 2015 did it.

Don't forget that Labour didn't need Scotland to win in 97, 2001 or 2005.