Are Labour Dead In The Water?

[Jack Knave]

Unlikely to be someone not in the cabinet, I notice that Sajid Javid effectively underlining his candidacy by his comments on Google, and his odds have come down considerably. Also moving in is Stephen Crabb and Priti Patel. Interesting also to note the reversals to policies being pushed by Michael Gove after Chris Grayling's tenure.

The commentator did seem to imply that it would be from the backbenches.

Wouldn't that be a lovely conjunction of people positioning themselves for the leadership bid at the same time fighting over the EU. Especially if it looks like Cameron is going to lose the referendum as this would put pressure on him to step down early, if he did actually fail to keep us in the EU.

[Jack Knave]

Jo Johnson is an interesting shout. One suspects that there might well be fratricide in that instance.

I am intrigued by Sajid Javid's positioning on Google yesterday. It's a big step if you are Business Secretary to effectively call out the Chancellor, and doing that while taking a populist position which will play with those to the left and certain elements to the right of the Chancellor.

On Javid I agree. I had to listen to it again to make sure I hadn't misheard it. But I think Osborne has made too many misjudgements on the feelings of the people and will now get some stick for it.

I find Joe Johnson a bit of a soulless fellow. I can't image him catching the peoples imagination.

[ProfessorDavey]

Why did you edit out the clear statement that I don't have any current affiliation (which would rule out being a member)?

That's the sort of approach I would expect from Vlad.

Where - I posted reply 139 in its entirety - no editing whatsoever.

To reiterate the whole of reply 139 is:

'Just to note were I to be an SNP supporter, it doesn't validate or invalidate my views, as indeed my being resident most of the time in Scotland  doesn't validate or invalidate them. You may be remembering that I voted yes in the referendum, but I would point out that doesn't make me an SNP supporter.'

In full - where exactly have you made a clear statement that you had no affiliation - I can't see one.

[Nearly Sane]

On Javid I agree. I had to listen to it again to make sure I hadn't misheard it. But I think Osborne has made too many misjudgements on the feelings of the people and will now get some stick for it.

I find Joe Johnson a bit of a soulless fellow. I can't image him catching the peoples imagination.

If the referendum goes to stay in, and the economy is in at all decent shape, Osborne will be in a very strong position. If the referendum is for out, you have to think that someone who campaigned for it will have a good chance. I suspect that is part of Paterson's showing.

If it's out anyone of the more known figures who either manages ambivalence or jumps convincingly will be well placed.

[ProfessorDavey]

The commentator did seem to imply that it would be from the backbenches.

Wouldn't that be a lovely conjunction of people positioning themselves for the leadership bid at the same time fighting over the EU. Especially if it looks like Cameron is going to lose the referendum as this would put pressure on him to step down early, if he did actually fail to keep us in the EU.

I think were he to lose the referendum then he'd have to go - his position would be pretty untenable. But if that happened it wouldn't make much sense to replace him with anyone other than a eurosceptic as otherwise they'd be on the losing side too. So who are the credible and high profile eurosceptics? Hmm not sure. Again I wonder about Theresa May - were she to side with the 'leave' campaign and they won she'd surely be in poll position for a leadership bid.

[Nearly Sane]

Where - I posted reply 139 in its entirety - no editing whatsoever.

To reiterate the whole of reply 139 is:

'Just to note were I to be an SNP supporter, it doesn't validate or invalidate my views, as indeed my being resident most of the time in Scotland  doesn't validate or invalidate them. You may be remembering that I voted yes in the referendum, but I would point out that doesn't make me an SNP supporter.'

In full - where exactly have you made a clear statement that you had no affiliation - I can't see one.

Post 146 which is the one with the comment on your fudge line which you quote in 148, and then insert 139 while leaving out the rest of 146.

[Jack Knave]

If the referendum goes to stay in, and the economy is in at all decent shape, Osborne will be in a very strong position. If the referendum is for out, you have to think that someone who campaigned for it will have a good chance. I suspect that is part of Paterson's showing.

If it's out anyone of the more known figures who either manages ambivalence or jumps convincingly will be well placed.

I think you have an assumption here for the In success that this will shut people up but I don't think it will. I also think Osborne isn't looking so good with the voters as he keeps gaffing and making misjudgements and those voting for their next leader may get some unsavoury feedback about him.

[ProfessorDavey]

Post 146 which is the one with the comment on your fudge line which you quote in 148, and then insert 139 while leaving out the rest of 146.

Fair enough although, still rather vague - you could of course have said 'I am not currently, nor have been recently a member of the SNP' - that would have been clear.

But you are still fudging on being a supporter, which was the major point. Are you or aren't you a supporter of the SNP - not a hard question to answer I'd have thought.

[Nearly Sane]

I think you have an assumption here for the In success that this will shut people up but I don't think it will. I also think Osborne isn't looking so good with the voters as he keeps gaffing and making misjudgements and those voting for their next leader may get some unsavoury feedback about him.

No, I don't think it will shut people up but I think.it will make it much harder to lead a party if one half of that party has been on the winning side.


I think a lot of the gaffs of Osborne are 'inside the beltway' politics and if you are Chancellor of 8 or so years and the economy is doing well, it's an easy sell. That said I am not convinced the economy will be in good shape

[Nearly Sane]

Fair enough although, still rather vague - you could of course have said 'I am not currently, nor have been recently a member of the SNP' - that would have been clear.

But you are still fudging on being a supporter, which was the major point. Are you or aren't you a supporter of the SNP - not a hard question to answer I'd have thought.

So no apology for the quote mining?

As to the major point, I think rather that is your assumption with no evidence.

[jakswan]

I'm not saying and haven't said that the SNP are the good guys. It's just your assumptions getting in the way of your comprehension.

So if:-

"Opinion in polls is moulded by the parties tactics, The Tories wanted to portray the SNP as scary and Labour couldn't avoid going along with that and I would suggest didn't want avoid it. "

You will agree then that SNP tactics are to mould opinion polls in the rUK as I suggested.

I think an element of opinion polls are moulded by politicians tactics. All good politicians use tactics, and the SNP have some brilliant politicians, so brilliant some commentators seem blind to their tactics, I'm glad you are not one of them.

[Nearly Sane]

So if:-

"Opinion in polls is moulded by the parties tactics, The Tories wanted to portray the SNP as scary and Labour couldn't avoid going along with that and I would suggest didn't want avoid it. "

You will agree then that SNP tactics are to mould opinion polls in the rUK as I suggested.

I think an element of opinion polls are moulded by politicians tactics. All good politicians use tactics, and the SNP have some brilliant politicians, so brilliant some commentators seem blind to their tactics, I'm glad you are not one of them.

I think the SNP concentrated their tactics on Scotland. I think Nicola Sturgeon made a real effort in rUK to appear conciliatory and argue that any coalition would look at the interests of the UK as a whole - that's why she repeatedly said that. .


I think the SNP have some good politicians and some that have been lucky as well. I think they have some awful ones as well. I don't hold them in the awe you seem to where you seem to think they are campaigning for some hugely double bluff other than what they say.

[jakswan]

I think the SNP concentrated their tactics on Scotland. I think Nicola Sturgeon made a real effort in rUK to appear conciliatory and argue that any coalition would look at the interests of the UK as a whole - that's why she repeatedly said that. .

I think the SNP have some good politicians and some that have been lucky as well. I think they have some awful ones as well. I don't hold them in the awe you seem to where you seem to think they are campaigning for some hugely double bluff other than what they say.

Never claimed they were campaigning for some huge double bluff, you've been reading too much Vlad. I'm not in awe and I never claimed that all of them were brilliant.

Why on earth would Sturgeon want to appear conciliatory, Scotland voting en masse for her and much of the rUK electorate seeing her as toxic plays exactly to her agenda for an independent Scotland.

There is some inconsistency in your position, you claim opinion polls are dictated by politicians tactics, yet claim that a politician who you appear to have supported has tactics that are at odds with the opinion polls.

[Nearly Sane]

Never claimed they were campaigning for some huge double bluff, you've been reading too much Vlad. I'm not in awe and I never claimed that all of them were brilliant.

Why on earth would Sturgeon want to appear conciliatory, Scotland voting en masse for her and much of the rUK electorate seeing her as toxic plays exactly to her agenda for an independent Scotland.

There is some inconsistency in your position, you claim opinion polls are dictated by politicians tactics, yet claim that a politician who you appear to have supported has tactics that are at odds with the opinion polls.

Don;t remember saying 'dictated' but anyway, I have no idea why you are asking me why Nicola Sturgeon's rhetoric would be conciliatory, the point is that it was. It stressed that it would look to be a coalition in everyone's interests. That's why I am wondering about double bluff because you seem to be suggesting that the aim was something that was opposite opposite the rhetoric.

[Nearly Sane]

Article on the difficulties for Labour, leaving aside anything on internal splits in 2020


http://labourlist.org/2016/02/labour-must-win-england-with-a-bigger-swing-than-1997-to-win-power/

[ProfessorDavey]

So no apology for the quote mining?

Nope - because I wasn't quote mining.

And actually the second part of reply 146 (the bit I chose not to quote in my response) doesn't actually counter my view on your statements being a fudge.

So in reply 142 I very clearly asked you to 'come clean about your political affiliation (whether formal member or merely voter)' - not the bit in brackets, in other words not just whether you were a member but also a voter.

Yet in your responses you remain evasive and further in 149 imply that in talking about affiliation you are really talking about membership. So your response remains a fudge as you haven't clarified the issue of which party you voted for. If you are not politically affiliated (whether formal member or merely voter) that would imply you are a non voter - is that correct, did you really not vote in the 2015 General Election, are you really planning not to vote in May. Somehow that doesn't seem very credible to me, particularly as you are clearly a voter, having told us you voted 'yes' in the referendum.

So I suggest you either put up (tell us whether you have voted SNP in the past and/or plan to in the future, plus whether you have previously been a member and/or plan to be in the future - noting again the evasiveness of the word 'current' in your reply), or shut up (which is clearly your right) - but if so then stop having a go at someone who has been completely honest about their affiliation which you remain evasive with your answers clearly a fudge.

As to the major point, I think rather that is your assumption with no evidence.

But isn't that the whole point - the only way I can gain the evidence about your affiliations (membership and/or voting or supporting) is from you - and that is what I am asking you to confirm and deny, and to do so in a manner which is clear and unequivocal. But that is something you seem unable or unwilling to do, for reasons that I am struggling to understand.

[ProfessorDavey]

So what exactly would you recommend the Labour party should have done in rUK then NS in the run up to the general election - clearly you see what they did as wrong in relation to their attitude to the SNP. How should they have done this better then - in a manner that would have helped them take those crucial swing seats in England from the Tories that could have made all the difference.

And remember this is about their approach to the SNP, not about their broader political positioning (e.g. their position on the austerity/non austerity spectrum) which had nothing to do with the SNP.

Reposting the above NS - as you don't seem to have replied.

So in your infinite wisdom NS what should the Labour party have done in rUK in the run up to the general election in relation to their attitude to the SNP and how would that have helped them win more of those crucial Tory/Labour marginal seats in England.

[jakswan]

Don;t remember saying 'dictated' but anyway,

I suspect pedantry, I'm not quoting you directly if you feel I'm misrepresenting you in anyway please highlight where and I'll apologise.

I have no idea why you are asking me why Nicola Sturgeon's rhetoric would be conciliatory, the point is that it was. It stressed that it would look to be a coalition in everyone's interests. That's why I am wondering about double bluff because you seem to be suggesting that the aim was something that was opposite opposite the rhetoric.

Opinion polls show that it didn't come across as conciliatory. Farage tries to be conciliatory towards migrants claiming he is not biased towards non-eu migrants, few believe him, few believe Sturgeon.

[jakswan]

I see Labour are proposing to increase taxes to protect Education in Scotland with LibDem supporting, the Tories / SNP are on the same side.

SNP will spin it left wing but the policy is right wing.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Jakswan,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35461968

Thank you, if you want quality you need to be prepared to pay for it, trouble is, the people we trust to spend our taxes wisely.

Gonnagle.

[jakswan]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35461968

Thank you, if you want quality you need to be prepared to pay for it, trouble is, the people we trust to spend our taxes wisely.

Are you saying 'Ah well'?

I seem to recall you mentioning that earlier in the thread.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Jakswan,

I hope I am not a "ah well" person or a "who cares" type but I do find it refreshing that someone is talking about raising taxes, I don't like the talk of "sticking it to the rich" although they must be shown to pay their fair share.

On the other hand, the idiots who spend our taxes, no use increasing taxes if it is just going to be spent unwisely.

I work in the NHS and the waste I see is phenomenal, epic, astronomical, not to mention the pilfering, but that is another story for another day.

Gonnagle.

[jakswan]

I hope I am not a "ah well" person or a "who cares" type but I do find it refreshing that someone is talking about raising taxes, I don't like the talk of "sticking it to the rich" although they must be shown to pay their fair share.

On the other hand, the idiots who spend our taxes, no use increasing taxes if it is just going to be spent unwisely.

I work in the NHS and the waste I see is phenomenal, epic, astronomical, not to mention the pilfering, but that is another story for another day.

The devolved NHS run by the the SNP? How about you become a whistle blower?

[ProfessorDavey]

Reposting the above NS - as you don't seem to have replied.

So in your infinite wisdom NS what should the Labour party have done in rUK in the run up to the general election in relation to their attitude to the SNP and how would that have helped them win more of those crucial Tory/Labour marginal seats in England.

Bump for NS.

[~TW~]

The question are labour dead in the water ---- yes death  set in some time ago.

    ~TW~