A fair assessment

[jeremyp]

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told MEPs that the Brexit vote was "extremely unfortunate", especially for the UK. "That country now has collapsed - politically, economically, monetarily and constitutionally, and you will have years ahead of you to get out of this mess."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36712550

I think he sums it up very well.

[L.A.]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36712550

I think he sums it up very well.

It's probably a bit early to make those judgements. Rutte is obviously trying to discourage his own Eurosceptics while Juncker certainly has an axe to grind, but the plummeting Pound and apparent political vacuum can't be good for confidence.

[jeremyp]

It's probably a bit early to make those judgements.

Really? Both main parties are in meltdown. The currency has tanked. A recession is predicted.

Rutte is obviously trying to discourage his own Eurosceptics while Juncker certainly has an axe to grind, but the plummeting Pound and apparent political vacuum can't be good for confidence.

I agree with that, but it doesn't mean he is wrong.

[L.A.]

Really? Both main parties are in meltdown. The currency has tanked. A recession is predicted.

The Tories will probably have their act together by October, so at least we should have a viable government, but I agree, the economy is in for a very rough ride (for some years imo).

[jakswan]

Really? Both main parties are in meltdown. The currency has tanked. A recession is predicted.

I agree with that, but it doesn't mean he is wrong.

Agree it doesn't make him wrong, what makes him wrong is that he is wrong.

Conservatives are selecting a new leader to call it meltdown is somewhat hysterical. Labour are conceivably in meltdown the timing might have links to Brexit but its cause is due to the PLP being out of sync with its members.

[ProfessorDavey]

Agree it doesn't make him wrong, what makes him wrong is that he is wrong.

Conservatives are selecting a new leader to call it meltdown is somewhat hysterical. Labour are conceivably in meltdown the timing might have links to Brexit but its cause is due to the PLP being out of sync with its members.

Oh don't be ridiculous, at the time of the biggest constitutional crisis in decades we have the biggest political crisis in decades (the two are of course linked).

We have no PM with authority to act, a CofE in a similar situation. We have no prospect of a return to a proper functioning government until September. We have no opposition, with most of the post in the shadow front bench unfilled as there has been a resounding vote of no confidence in the leader. And the party that came third in the popular vote in the 2015 general election is also leaderless.

And in all three cases the reason for the turmoil is directly linked to the brexit vote.

In fact the only person who seems to be valiantly acting to prevent absolute economic collapse is the governor of the bank of england.

[Hope]

... a CofE in a similar situation.

Not quite sure of the relevance of the CofE in this matter.

[Harrowby Hall]

He means Chancellor of the Exchequer.

It took me a little while to work it out.

[L.A.]

He means Chancellor of the Exchequer.

It took me a little while to work it out.

I was a bit puzzled as to how the Church of England might be involved 

[jeremyp]

Agree it doesn't make him wrong, what makes him wrong is that he is wrong.

Look at the evidence before your eyes.

[jakswan]

Oh don't be ridiculous, at the time of the biggest constitutional crisis in decades we have the biggest political crisis in decades (the two are of course linked).

I merely said the Tories were not in meltdown, and Labour woes is because the PLP is out of sync with its members.

If Corbyn wasn't in charge but a centrist I doubt the Labour party would be in meltdown, Brexit or no Brexit.

Many members have deserted the Labour party to the hard left, you being one example.

And in all three cases the reason for the turmoil is directly linked to the brexit vote.

Turmoil is expected, meltdown in all parties it isn't.

[ProfessorDavey]

I merely said the Tories were not in meltdown, and Labour woes is because the PLP is out of sync with its members.

The tories are in a period of uneasy truce - whether they end up in meltdown will depend on the next few months, specifically on the basis of who becomes leader and what he or she decides to do on brexit. Let's not forget that europe has been a simmering issue in the tories for decades. Were May (as an example) to become PM and delay or even reject brexit then there would be meltdown.

If Corbyn wasn't in charge but a centrist I doubt the Labour party would be in meltdown, Brexit or no Brexit.

Of course there was trouble before the referendum, but Corbyn's approach during the campaign is without doubt the straw that broke the camel's back.

Many members have deserted the Labour party to the hard left, you being one example.

Turmoil is expected, meltdown in all parties it isn't.

People join and leave political parties all the time for all sorts of reasons. There have certainly been big shifts in Labour over the past 12 months and I suspect what we will see over the next few months is an overall drop in membership (as the anti-Corbynites, such as me allow their annual membership to lapse, plus also many who joined just to vote for Corbyn failing to renew), but there will definitely be a left-wards shift in the membership.

And this will be a big problem because it will further detach the PLP from the wider membership, and let's be clear the Labour supporting electorate who are not as far to the left as the membership. Now there are talks of mass deselections of Blairites and the more moderate MPs, but from experience I don't think this will anything like as easy as might be suggested. Members, and certainly active members tend to be pretty loyal to their local MP, often because they know them well and have worked hard for their election and understand the importance of recognition and personal vote.

So you'd probably get a membership in one constituency who'd be delighted to deselect the MP in the next door constituency, but would touch their own.

[jakswan]

The tories are in a period of uneasy truce - whether they end up in meltdown will depend on the next few months, specifically on the basis of who becomes leader and what he or she decides to do on brexit. Let's not forget that europe has been a simmering issue in the tories for decades. Were May (as an example) to become PM and delay or even reject brexit then there would be meltdown.

Good so you agree with me the Tories are not in Meltdown.

Of course there was trouble before the referendum, but Corbyn's approach during the campaign is without doubt the straw that broke the camel's back.

Exactly, agree totally.

People join and leave political parties all the time for all sorts of reasons. There have certainly been big shifts in Labour over the past 12 months and I suspect what we will see over the next few months is an overall drop in membership (as the anti-Corbynites, such as me allow their annual membership to lapse, plus also many who joined just to vote for Corbyn failing to renew), but there will definitely be a left-wards shift in the membership.

And this will be a big problem because it will further detach the PLP from the wider membership, and let's be clear the Labour supporting electorate who are not as far to the left as the membership. Now there are talks of mass deselections of Blairites and the more moderate MPs, but from experience I don't think this will anything like as easy as might be suggested. Members, and certainly active members tend to be pretty loyal to their local MP, often because they know them well and have worked hard for their election and understand the importance of recognition and personal vote.

So you'd probably get a membership in one constituency who'd be delighted to deselect the MP in the next door constituency, but would touch their own.

Deselection isn't going to be an issue if you can't get elected. Corbyn isn't moving, the MPs would look daft if they backed down, this is a fight to the end.

[L.A.]

The tories are in a period of uneasy truce - whether they end up in meltdown will depend on the next few months, specifically on the basis of who becomes leader and what he or she decides to do on brexit. Let's not forget that europe has been a simmering issue in the tories for decades. Were May (as an example) to become PM and delay or even reject brexit then there would be meltdown.

I suppose you could argue that all political parties contain a number of factions in some kind of truce, some uneasier than others. But whether the Tories 'gel' around May or enter meltdown rather depends on how events spin-out over coming months. I think any attempt to avoid article 50 would probably be fairly disastrous for the party and as we don't have a government in waiting, it would not be good for the country either.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Good so you agree with me the Tories are not in Meltdown.

I can't agree with that unless you want to recast this as a brexican standoff in the tory party.