French Presidential Election

[ekim]

But Le Pen winning would be a lot more fun to watch. 

Le Penis mightier than the sword!

[jeremyp]

The polls were wrong about Btexit and Trump.

No they weren't. The Brexit polls were within the quoted margin of error.

The Trump polls were correct, more or less except that certain states went the wrong way. In the end Clinton actually won the popular vote.

[Nearly Sane]

Macron v Le Pen


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39686993

[ProfessorDavey]

Macron v Le Pen


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39686993

So Macron will be the next president.

[floo]

So Macron will be the next president.

I hope so.

[Harrowby Hall]

So Macron will be the next president.

One hopes so, but as we have seen from the UK referendum, the USA presidential election, the Turkish referendum, that it is not always the rational argument which prevails.

[Nearly Sane]

One hopes so, but as we have seen from the UK referendum, the USA presidential election, the Turkish referendum, that it is not always the rational argument which prevails.

While I disagree with the decisions, I think it is too much of a generalisation to portray those you disagree with as devoid of rational arguments. Rather their values may be different.

[Harrowby Hall]

While I disagree with the decisions, I think it is too much of a generalisation to portray those you disagree with as devoid of rational arguments. Rather their values may be different.

Possibly, but in each of these cases the protagonists for the winning side relied mainly on emotional argument to gain support.

[Rhiannon]

No, Brexit was won by lying as much as emotion, if not more. The arguments seemed rational (more money for the NHS) but were completely untrue.

[ProfessorDavey]

One hopes so, but as we have seen from the UK referendum, the USA presidential election, the Turkish referendum, that it is not always the rational argument which prevails.

If LePen cannot beat Macron in the first round, how is she going to beat him in the run-off, when overwhelmingly the supporters of Fillon, Melenchon and Benoit will jump to Macron rather than LePen.

The polling on a Macron/LePen run-off is constantly about 65%/35% in favour of Macron. That is massively different to Trump/Brexit/Turkey where polling showed the two sides pretty well neck and neck on popular vote.

[Rhiannon]

I like the idea of a new emergent party with centrist/liberal policies. If only it would happen here.

[Nearly Sane]

Possibly, but in each of these cases the protagonists for the winning side relied mainly on emotional argument to gain support.

Remember you are not just talking about the protagonists here but millions of voters. Further it seems to me that much of the arguments on both sides are emotional, and sometimes lying as mentioned by Rhiannon. The whole portrayal of a half of the electorate as either dupes or racist sexist homophobes seems to me an emotional argument.

[floo]

No, Brexit was won by lying as much as emotion, if not more. The arguments seemed rational (more money for the NHS) but were completely untrue.

I agree.

[Harrowby Hall]

I like the idea of a new emergent party with centrist/liberal policies. If only it would happen here.

If we can get rid of our "first-past-the-post" electoral system then it would become more likely.

[Harrowby Hall]

While I disagree with the decisions, I think it is too much of a generalisation to portray those you disagree with as devoid of rational arguments. Rather their values may be different.

Please read what I said, which was "it is not always the rational argument that prevails".

Where, in that statement, have I said that there were no rational arguments? I have not said "devoid of rational arguments" - this is solely your misrepresentation.

Now, if you consider the writing on the side of the bus, it was clearly intended to be a "rational" statement, but can you conceive of a subject in the UK political sphere which has a greater emotional impact than the National Health Service?

[Nearly Sane]

Please read what I said, which was "it is not always the rational argument that prevails".

Where, in that statement, have I said that there were no rational arguments? I have not said "devoid of rational arguments" - this is solely your misrepresentation.

Now, if you consider the writing on the side of the bus, it was clearly intended to be a "rational" statement, but can you conceive of a subject in the UK political sphere which has a greater emotional impact than the National Health Service?

Your use of the words 'the rational argument' implies that you see the other side as not being rational. And individual instances of wrong facts doesn't illustrate that the other argument(s) was/were the logical ones.

[jakswan]

Your use of the words 'the rational argument' implies that you see the other side as not being rational. And individual instances of wrong facts doesn't illustrate that the other argument(s) was/were the logical ones.

Actually it was the attitude of HH was endemic on remain, possibly played a part in their defeat.

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting move from Le Pen

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39696861

[Nearly Sane]

Actually it was the attitude of HH was endemic on remain, possibly played a part in their defeat.

Was it? Seems like you are indulging in another lazy generalisation?

[floo]

I see Le Pen is stepping down as party leader, albeit temporarily, in the run up to the next stage of the election.

[Nearly Sane]

The move from Le Pen is certainly understandable. I think it's perhaps a but late to have the effect needed. She has obviously seen that an insider such as Macron can benefit from not being too closely aligned to a traditional party, but the En Marche 'movement' has been going for a year. It's not as easy to detoxify in 2 weeks.

[Harrowby Hall]

"Detoxify"- interesting word. I don't claim to have any special knowledge of the French mindset, but I do think that we are looking at the French elections through a cultural filter.

As I have said on a number of times, I own property in France. My canton (ie several communes as a single electoral district) returned a FN representative to a political body recently. (You must excuse my lack of information - not being resident I don't have a vote, and it took place when I was not in France). Several such members were returned.

In rural areas certainly, the FN is not seen as toxic. In contrast with the UK, where living in the countryside is seen as desirable, the majority of French people living in rural areas in France are elderly and not always particularly well off.  The attraction of French country properties to the British (or Dutch or Belgians) is their availability, young French people prefer to live in cities.

Muslims form a rather larger proportion of the population in France than in Britain.The French state is less accommodating of multi-culturalism than is the British state and in some places Maghrebian communities have become ghettoised.

I think that Marine Le Pen has stepped down - temporarily - from the post of party leader simply to give her time on the stump.

[ProfessorDavey]

"Detoxify"- interesting word. I don't claim to have any special knowledge of the French mindset, but I do think that we are looking at the French elections through a cultural filter.

As I have said on a number of times, I own property in France. My canton (ie several communes as a single electoral district) returned a FN representative to a political body recently. (You must excuse my lack of information - not being resident I don't have a vote, and it took place when I was not in France). Several such members were returned.

In rural areas certainly, the FN is not seen as toxic. In contrast with the UK, where living in the countryside is seen as desirable, the majority of French people living in rural areas in France are elderly and not always particularly well off.  The attraction of French country properties to the British (or Dutch or Belgians) is their availability, young French people prefer to live in cities.

Muslims form a rather larger proportion of the population in France than in Britain.The French state is less accommodating of multi-culturalism than is the British state and in some places Maghrebian communities have become ghettoised.

I think that Marine Le Pen has stepped down - temporarily - from the post of party leader simply to give her time on the stump.

It is a rather odd move in my opinion.

She isn't going to be able to distance herself from the FN - there simply aren't going to be millions of people thinking 'couldn't ever have voted fro her while she was FN, but now she's stepped down temporarily for a couple of week, that's fine'.

I don't understand the more time on the stump either - as a candidate in a run off of 2 in less than 2 weeks she will be working 100% on her election regardless of whether she is still leader of FN or not.

On the broader issue of rural France - you may indeed be right, but there simply aren't enough people there to outweigh the cities, towns and suburbs. And on the greater proportions of muslims - I presume most have a vote themselves so at best cancelling out an anti-muslim extremist block.

Frankly I can't see any possible way that LePen can turn this around. The only possibility is some massive seismic shock scandal against Macron.

[Nearly Sane]

Obviously the FN isn't toxic to those who vote for it, but we gave been here before with her father funning in the second round, and losing badly. The votes she needs to get to win are from people who would normally not vote for the FN. Further let's remember that she has specific Cally been working on detoxifying the FN brand already by moving from her father's positions.

Also, as covered Macron has managed to avoid the idea of being as much of an establishment figure by running with a movement, and not a party. Thus cleverly has outflanked Le Pen's position of the outsider, a role that has been of benefit recently, no matter what the actual political position  has been, or indeed if anyone is actually an outsider.

[jeremyp]

Actually it was the attitude of HH was endemic on remain, possibly played a part in their defeat.

And Trump.

If you tell people that they are idiots or worse, it turns out they don't voter the way you want them to, they vote in a way that sends a big "fuck you" to you.

If my Facebook feed is anything to go by, it's happening again - not that the race is that close anyway.