US Election 2020

[Nearly Sane]

With the Dems having started their debate with a cast of thousands and old Uncle Joe Biden an'all, It's time to start a thread on this. The main problems for the Dems is that this is both an ideological battle, and a personality battle with so many candidates that they become ciphers rather than real.

[Nearly Sane]

Quite incredible that the number of candidates is reducing this slowly. We're still five and half months away from the Iowa caucus

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

[Nearly Sane]

Even if Sanders recovers, I suspect this is the effective end. Interesting where his supporters go.

.https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bernie-sanders-78-canceled-events-notice-hospitalized/story?id=66003850&cid=share_facebook_widget&fbclid=IwAR2_0nsOdtytWPYjeG9iNaBzsMfVHn0RDblFJZB64oHCpUeD4TzTCQeo_Pw

[Roses]

Heart problems or not, I think someone of Sander's age is not suitable to be POTUS due to the undoubted stress involved in holding such a high office.

[Outrider]

Heart problems or not, I think someone of Sander's age is not suitable to be POTUS due to the undoubted stress involved in holding such a high office.

There was a brief piece about this on Radio 4's 'More or Less' last week (maybe the week before?) talking about the average odds of someone of elevated age dying during a four year term - I think it looked at Trump, Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as the over-70's candidates and suggested there was between a 10 and 20% chance.  Of course, that's an average for the nation, and their individual medical circumstances would alter those chances.

It's the visible impact of it happening on the news, for me, that scuppers Sanders chances.  The Democrats probably can't afford to put him forward as their candidate and face the entire election campaign with Republicans and neutrals openly wondering if he'll survive the four years.

O.

[Steve H]

I love Bernie, but I must sadly agree about his age ruling him out. Let's just hope Hilary doesn't decide to try again - she's electoral poison for the Democrats.

[Roses]

I would be surprised if HC stood again.

[jeremyp]

Heart problems or not, I think someone of Sander's age is not suitable to be POTUS due to the undoubted stress involved in holding such a high office.

I agree. The same applies to Joe Biden. In fact, I'm not thrilled about Elizabeth Warren's age although she is younger than the incumbent.

[jeremyp]

I love Bernie, but I must sadly agree about his age ruling him out. Let's just hope Hilary doesn't decide to try again - she's electoral poison for the Democrats.

Well she's not standing. It's really too late to join in now.

[Nearly Sane]

Sanders now 16/1 in terms of odds for being the candidate. Warren evens, Biden 4/1, Yang 16/1.

[Nearly Sane]

I love Bernie, but I must sadly agree about his age ruling him out. Let's just hope Hilary doesn't decide to try again - she's electoral poison for the Democrats.

Various attempts at testing the electoral water going on as regards Hillary

[jeremyp]

Various attempts at testing the electoral water going on as regards Hillary

She's not going to stand. Forget about it.

[Nearly Sane]

She's not going to stand. Forget about it.

Doesn't mean that there aren't various attempts to test the electoral water.

[jeremyp]

Doesn't mean that there aren't various attempts to test the electoral water.

The people testing the electoral water should just forget about it too.

[Nearly Sane]

The people testing the electoral water should just forget about it too.

I agree. But I don't think we should just forget that something that is happening is happening.

[jeremyp]

I agree. But I don't think we should just forget that something that is happening is happening.

Why not if it's not going to lead to anything. There's plenty of stuff to worry about with respect to the US elections (namely: what if Trump wins), without unimportant crap.

The things I worry about wrt the US general election are things like: what if Biden or Sanders gets the Democratic nomination?

[Nearly Sane]

Why not if it's not going to lead to anything. There's plenty of stuff to worry about with respect to the US elections (namely: what if Trump wins), without unimportant crap.

The things I worry about wrt the US general election are things like: what if Biden or Sanders gets the Democratic nomination?

Whose worrying about it? Why shouldn't it be worth noting what's happening? And given other people will notice what is happening perhaps it will have an effect in ways you don't know.

[Steve H]

Whose

"Who's".

[Roses]

What goes on across the pond certainly has an impact on us. If Trump gets in again it would be very bad news indeed.

[Nearly Sane]

What goes on across the pond certainly has an impact on us. If Trump gets in again it would be very bad news indeed.

What actions has Trump taken that have so far had effects on the UK, and what are those effects? For all the fears that he was bringing about Armageddon, we don't really seem that much closer. Note, that isn't to say that he's a good president, nor that there aren't many people who have been badly effected by his decisions but just that so far I can't see that the UK has been adversely affected.

[Nearly Sane]

Oh and the current odds are 5/6 Democrat win, 11/10 Republican win.

[Roses]

What actions has Trump taken that have so far had effects on the UK, and what are those effects? For all the fears that he was bringing about Armageddon, we don't really seem that much closer. Note, that isn't to say that he's a good president, nor that there aren't many people who have been badly effected by his decisions but just that so far I can't see that the UK has been adversely affected.

Of course what Trump says and does has an effect on us and the rest of the planet, when it comes to him threatening to take military action, or nuke a country like he did with North Korea, it ratchets up the tension no end.

[Steve H]

Oh and the current odds are 5/6 Democrat win, 11/10 Republican win.

Not being a betting man, nor a mathematician, forgive me asking - which is most likely?

[Nearly Sane]

Not being a betting man, nor a mathematician, forgive me asking - which is most likely?

It's saying that the Dems are believed to be slightly more likely to win but that it's essentially 50/50. Odds where the first nimber is lower than the second as in 5/6 are referred to as odds on - that is the outcome is more likely than not. Here 5/6 represent that the Dems are believed to win in 6 (second number) out of 11 (6+5, first number) times. The Reps odds are indicating that they are believed to win 10 (second number again) out of 21 (10+11, first number) times. Hope that helps.

[Steve H]

Thanks.