Author Topic: Question re probability  (Read 387 times)

SusanDoris

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Question re probability
« on: June 29, 2019, 11:04:43 AM »
Deleted and re-written in next post.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 02:08:54 PM by SusanDoris »
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SusanDoris

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Re: Question re probability
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2019, 02:06:09 PM »
I would like to respond correctly to a post elsewhere on probability. It was said that the universe ‘must have had’ a creator. I said that, since the universe exists. The probability is 1; not 1:large-number-of-choice.
The response was  that, after it happened, the probability was 1, but the probability of it happening by way of a random event before the universe was created is zero.

Is this correct? If not, could someone give me a simple answer, please?
« Last Edit: June 29, 2019, 02:10:47 PM by SusanDoris »
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Walter

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Re: Question re probability
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2019, 03:19:24 PM »
I would like to respond correctly to a post elsewhere on probability. It was said that the universe ‘must have had’ a creator. I said that, since the universe exists. The probability is 1; not 1:large-number-of-choice.
The response was  that, after it happened, the probability was 1, but the probability of it happening by way of a random event before the universe was created is zero.

Is this correct? If not, could someone give me a simple answer, please?
SD

if anyone tells you the universe 'must have had' a creator then they are not familiar with quantum mechanics or relativity
Quantum mechanics tells us that the concept of 'nothing existing ' is wrong . Experiments have shown that 'nothing' has properties and as such the universe is almost inevitable
That is to say in this universe , there may have been billions of universes before this one
Besides, once you bring a creator into it , then were back to the old inevitable question ; who created the creator?  BOOM

SusanDoris

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Re: Question re probability
« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2019, 04:23:29 PM »
SD

if anyone tells you the universe 'must have had' a creator then they are not familiar with quantum mechanics or relativity
Quantum mechanics tells us that the concept of 'nothing existing ' is wrong . Experiments have shown that 'nothing' has properties and as such the universe is almost inevitable
That is to say in this universe , there may have been billions of universes before this one
Besides, once you bring a creator into it , then were back to the old inevitable question ; who created the creator?  BOOM
Ah, yes! The poster is one of those who thinks that a little old lady like me couldn't possibly be rational enough to get my little brain around such ideas!!! I quote, leaving sp errors uncorrected! :
Quote
...- is a waste of time discussing issues with someone who thinks she know everthing - but is incapable of rational discourse.
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Walter

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Re: Question re probability
« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2019, 05:05:26 PM »
Ah, yes! The poster is one of those who thinks that a little old lady like me couldn't possibly be rational enough to get my little brain around such ideas!!! I quote, leaving sp errors uncorrected! :
SD

In that case , they seriously underestimate you at their peril

good luck  ;D

Spud

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Re: Question re probability
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2019, 06:54:15 PM »
I would like to respond correctly to a post elsewhere on probability. It was said that the universe ‘must have had’ a creator. I said that, since the universe exists. The probability is 1; not 1:large-number-of-choice.
The response was  that, after it happened, the probability was 1, but the probability of it happening by way of a random event before the universe was created is zero.

Is this correct? If not, could someone give me a simple answer, please?
How can the probability of an event happening be different before and after it?

Gordon

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Re: Question re probability
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2019, 08:28:40 PM »
How can the probability of an event happening be different before and after it?

Because it happened.

jeremyp

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Re: Question re probability
« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2019, 08:44:26 PM »
I would like to respond correctly to a post elsewhere on probability. It was said that the universe ‘must have had’ a creator. I said that, since the universe exists. The probability is 1; not 1:large-number-of-choice.
The response was  that, after it happened, the probability was 1, but the probability of it happening by way of a random event before the universe was created is zero.

Is this correct? If not, could someone give me a simple answer, please?

The probability that this Universe exists is 1, because it is certain that it does exist.

The probability that a universe could pop into existence where no universe existed before is unknown. We don't know the physics behind universe creation so we can't make a reasoned estimate of it.

As an aside, if you have a quantity that is measured as a real number, the probability of any one particular exact value is always zero. Fore example, if you pick a random person off the street, the probability that they are exactly 6 feet tall (1.8288 metres) is zero.

Therein lies the answer to the fallacy. If we could measure my height to the accuracy of the Planck length e.g. 1.7272 (and another 31 digits) metres and then calculate the probability of any random person being within 10-35 metres of that height, the probability is going to be very very small. But here I am, existing with my exact height at a probability of 1. This is a variation of Douglas Adams' example of how a puddle might marvel that the indentation in which it is sitting is exactly the right shape for it.

So you have a two pronged attack. First challenge them to justify their probability of 0. Then go with the above, if they come up with anything sensible.

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jeremyp

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Re: Question re probability
« Reply #8 on: June 30, 2019, 08:46:39 PM »
How can the probability of an event happening be different before and after it?
Because you have new information.

I'm about to toss a fair coin. What is the probability of it coming down heads? Answer now before reading on.






I just tossed the coin. It came down tails. What is the probability it came down heads?


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SusanDoris

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Re: Question re probability
« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2019, 06:56:34 AM »
JeremyP

Many thanks for your clear and very helpful reply. I think I have got it, but will read it several times to make sure before writing a response on the other forum.
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Walter

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Re: Question re probability
« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2019, 12:25:21 PM »
Spud
the use and meaning of language is very important here !