Scottish Exam Results

[ProfessorDavey]

"Oh no. We've promised places to too many students. What can we we do? I know, let's not allow all the students who want to defer a year to do that."

Universities will, of course, allow students to defer if otherwise it risks going over the cap. But until they've filled their places I think they'll be pretty tough on deferring - in my experience many are effectively saying that a student is welcome to take their chances by applying next year along with next year's cohort of students.

But I'm not convinced a deferring is quite as attraction as some people are suggesting - what exactly are deferring students going to do next year - the traditional gap year travel option is effectively out. And also it will be very difficult for a deferring 18 year old to get work experience or other volunteering work as the pandemic means that opportunities are much more limited.

My experience of 18 year olds currently receiving their results (anecdotal I know) is that most have considered deferring, but have ultimately decided they will go in Sept after all.

[ProfessorDavey]

Universities will, of course, allow students to defer if otherwise it risks going over the cap. But until they've filled their places I think they'll be pretty tough on deferring - in my experience many are effectively saying that a student is welcome to take their chances by applying next year along with next year's cohort of students.

But I'm not convinced a deferring is quite as attraction as some people are suggesting - what exactly are deferring students going to do next year - the traditional gap year travel option is effectively out. And also it will be very difficult for a deferring 18 year old to get work experience or other volunteering work as the pandemic means that opportunities are much more limited.

My experience of 18 year olds currently receiving their results (anecdotal I know) is that most have considered deferring, but have ultimately decided they will go in Sept after all.

It seems my anecdotal evidence is correct - there are no greater numbers of students planning to defer this year than in previous years. In fact the numbers are slightly down.

https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/student-deferrals-dip-uk-despite-coronavirus-fears

[ProfessorDavey]

There is another massive element of unfairness in the system that I'd not recognised until yesterday.

The algorithmic moderation (almost always downwards) wasn't applied to schools where the cohort taking a subject was very small - in those cases the teacher assessment applied unmoderated. And guess where schools with small classes taking exams typically exist - in the private, independent sector.

So state schools (and state school kids) have been disproportionately and negatively affected.

[jeremyp]

There is another massive element of unfairness in the system that I'd not recognised until yesterday.

The algorithmic moderation (almost always downwards) wasn't applied to schools where the cohort taking a subject was very small - in those cases the teacher assessment applied unmoderated. And guess where schools with small classes taking exams typically exist - in the private, independent sector.

So state schools (and state school kids) have been disproportionately and negatively affected.

Tell us how you'd fix it.

[ProfessorDavey]

Tell us how you'd fix it.

It shouldn't have happened in the first place.

The mess is the result of a catalogue of errors and failures over the past nigh on 10 years. Had the A level system not been reformed (by Gove and Cummings) to scrap the AS component, remove virtually all assessed coursework and rely pretty well exclusively on end of course exams, then schools and the exam system would have a wealth of independently assessed and moderated marks already in place. The teacher assessment for the final component would have been less significant and the moderation would be individualised - in other words against that student's marks to date. Not perfect but much better than the mess we are in.

[jeremyp]

It shouldn't have happened in the first place.

But it has happened.

The mess is the result of a catalogue of errors and failures over the past nigh on 10 years. Had the A level system not been reformed (by Gove and Cummings) to scrap the AS component, remove virtually all assessed coursework and rely pretty well exclusively on end of course exams, then schools and the exam system would have a wealth of independently assessed and moderated marks already in place. The teacher assessment for the final component would have been less significant and the moderation would be individualised - in other words against that student's marks to date. Not perfect but much better than the mess we are in.

Or they could have actually held the exams.

But this is all in the past and can't be changed. How would you fix it now?

[ProfessorDavey]

But it has happened.
Or they could have actually held the exams.

But this is all in the past and can't be changed. How would you fix it now?

I don't think you can simply hand-wave, shrug your shoulders and say 'it's all in the past' - all sorts of people have been pointing out that the proposals from the government and Ofqual would produce the effect we've seen. Why did the government and Ofqual not listen, reflect and alter their approach. They had plenty of time to do so.

The easiest change would have been to ensure that an individual student is compared to their individual past record/prior attainment, not to a cohort (either previous years of their entire year'r prior attainment). Had this been done it would have remedied both major flaws - namely that a super-bright student who is brighter than any student in the past 3 years (in some cases just one year) cannot be given an A*. Secondly by doing this there is no need for a minimum cohort size, so small cohort in private schools would have been treated the same as state schools.

From where we are now there are no particularly satisfactory ways forward - the point is that had government listened over the past couple of months we wouldn't have been here.

[ProfessorDavey]

How would you fix it now?

The other key thing the government needs to do is to remove the cap on university places specifically to allow students whose grades are increased on appeal to be awarded a place even if this results in the cap being breached.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

But it has happened.
Or they could have actually held the exams.

But this is all in the past and can't be changed. How would you fix it now?

The British way....those not of Noble stock or private education in the fields harvesting beautiful
 British crops.

[Nearly Sane]

The French approach


https://amp.rfi.fr/en/france/20200722-french-university-covid-19-nurses-social-workers-health-professionals-students?__twitter_impression=true

[ProfessorDavey]

The French approach


https://amp.rfi.fr/en/france/20200722-french-university-covid-19-nurses-social-workers-health-professionals-students?__twitter_impression=true

Seems to be a sensible approach.

Firstly shores up university finances with the uncertainty of overseas students. But also reduces the number of school leavers not in further study, who will really struggle to find a job under the current economic climate. Surely much better for these young people to be gaining more education, training and skills than sat around unemployed.

[Gordon]

Looks like some other exam results in England that are due for release next week are going to add to the unease.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/14/gcses-2-million-grades-set-to-be-downgraded-researchers-warn

[jeremyp]

The other key thing the government needs to do is to remove the cap on university places specifically to allow students whose grades are increased on appeal to be awarded a place even if this results in the cap being breached.

How do you magically increase the number of places on a course? I guess it would work for some subjects e.g. maths or literature, but there will be courses with lab work and other resource limited activities.

[Nearly Sane]

Messier than Messi, messier than Messalina, messier than Eton Mess


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-53795831

[Roses]

Messier than Messi, messier than Messalina, messier than Eton Mess


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-53795831

Too true!!! Two of our grandsons get their predicted GCSE grades on Thursday.

[ProfessorDavey]

How do you magically increase the number of places on a course? I guess it would work for some subjects e.g. maths or literature, but there will be courses with lab work and other resource limited activities.

Universities previously had no cap so could take as many students as they chose and resources allowed. For many courses resources aren't particularly important in terms of maximum numbers of students. But even for those that are the total number of student is the sum of home and overseas students. With the latter likely to be lower this year there is likely capacity to increase how students, for example to guarantee places to those appealing their results. But unless the government scraps the cap this cannot happen.

[jeremyp]

Universities previously had no cap so could take as many students as they chose and resources allowed.

It's one thing to be allowed to take more students. It's another to be ready for them with just over a month's notice. Still, it's good that you now agree with my earlier assertion that there will be enough places. Compare and contrast with your reply number 18.

For many courses resources aren't particularly important in terms of maximum numbers of students. But even for those that are the total number of student is the sum of home and overseas students. With the latter likely to be lower this year there is likely capacity to increase how students, for example to guarantee places to those appealing their results. But unless the government scraps the cap this cannot happen.

Turns out the cap is "forecast growth plus 5%". That doesn't strike me as being hugely onerous.

[ProfessorDavey]

Turns out the cap is "forecast growth plus 5%". That doesn't strike me as being hugely onerous.

Guess what - I work in a senior position in a university - I am well aware of the details of the cap. Many universities will already have reached their cap and will have planned to do so over the past few months to mitigate agains the risks of a dip in overseas student numbers (remember as a rule of thumb you need two additional home students to make up for the financial loss of one overseas student.

So unless the government scraps the cap many universities simply won't be in a position to accept students whose grades have been increased on appeal in early/mid September. Sure those students may be able to find places at other universities (they may already have done so, but potentially not where they wanted to go and where they would have gone had they not been marked down by the algorithm).

[Nearly Sane]

Looks like there might be an announcement this afternoon.

[ProfessorDavey]

Looks like there might be an announcement this afternoon.

Yup - that's what I'm hearing - what do you reckon:

1. Double down, tough it out
2. Full blown U-turn, going with teacher assessments as per Scotland
3. Some half way house, muddle
4. Announcement of delay to GCSE results?

[ProfessorDavey]

Yup - that's what I'm hearing - what do you reckon:

1. Double down, tough it out
2. Full blown U-turn, going with teacher assessments as per Scotland
3. Some half way house, muddle
4. Announcement of delay to GCSE results?

Twitter-sphere suggests it is 2.

In which case the government needs to scrap the cap on universities or many will be clobbered financially as they breach the cap through no fault of their own, but through the retrospective action of the government.

[Nearly Sane]

Twitter-sphere suggests it is 2.

In which case the government needs to scrap the cap on universities or many will be clobbered financially as they breach the cap through no fault of their own, but through the retrospective action of the government.

I think 2 as well. Certainly that's what the rebel Tories seem to want.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think 2 as well. Certainly that's what the rebel Tories seem to want.

My worry is that the government won't be joined up enough to recognise that they need to address the university-side issue as well.

Currently universities made offers back in the Autumn in good faith on an assumption that A-level grades would broadly be the same as in previous years.

On Thursday last week when the results came out many universities will have firstly confirmed places to students who met the offer and then dropped a grade and worked via clearing to fill their additional available places. They will have planned to do this to come close to, but not breach the cap. A breach of the cap can mean a universities loses up to 15% of its tuition fee funding.

If the government now accepts teacher assessments retrospectively this will mean that many students who had previously failed attain the grades to get place will now have down so. If universities are expected to take these students, which seems fair, then it is completely unreasonable to clobber them financially for helping to sort out the government's mess.

Another knock on is that the very thing the cap was supposed to prevent will happen inadvertently - in other words the more popular universities taking in more students than in previous years (if they can), leaving those less popular universities struggling for students and therefore income. What will the government do - bail them out with transitional funding or let them fail? It may be, of course, that we will simply have more school leavers going off to university overall. Probably not an issue as there aren't going to be many other opportunities for these people with few jobs around. Better to allow them to gain higher levels of education/skills.

[Udayana]

Twitter-sphere suggests it is 2.

In which case the government needs to scrap the cap on universities or many will be clobbered financially as they breach the cap through no fault of their own, but through the retrospective action of the government.

Obviously 2. is the only workable solution. The "algorithm" is farcical and a complete misapplication of statistics.

Actually, IMV. the whole A-level system is .. er .. crap,  and really has only gone backwards since Gove's stampdown on coursework.

Maybe they need Cummings' sign-off before any action can be taken?

https://www.thecanary.co/opinion/2020/08/16/dominic-cummings-blog-reveals-hes-behind-the-a-level-class-war/   

[Nearly Sane]

Seen elsewhere

Boris Johnson finally doing his A-Levels U-turn today but because he went to Eton it will be upgraded to an A-turn