Author Topic: Scottish Exam Results  (Read 3895 times)


ProfessorDavey

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Gordon

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2020, 08:00:35 PM »
I think that the sense of injustice won't go away: that in the absence of exams it is the previous performance of schools that is being assessed and that bright kids in less historically 'achieving' schools are being disadvantaged. As things stand it can look like any individual excellence from pupils in some schools will get lost in the algorithm, leading to reduced post-school options for these pupils. It's fine if you went to a high achieving school, like my oldest grandson, but less fine if you went to the school that is just 2/3 miles away from his.

It isn't a good look no matter what happens now, and you'd have thought that someone would have realised the interpretations that would be made when the consequences of the approach used became apparent, in implying either criticism of the assessment skills of teachers, or that those attending certain schools would be disadvantaged irrespective of their individual performance. I can't see that the appeals process will help rectify this, since if any substantial number of appeals succeed it will not only confirm that the model used was inherently wrong, and that the assessment of teachers was more correct that was allowed for by the SQA, but will result in an outcome that is atypical compared to previous years, and of course the concern then is that the top graded passes (the 'A's' and 'B's') could be seen to be devalued. 

It's a mess, and it seems to me that the 2020 exam season in Scotland is now compromised no matter what.         
« Last Edit: August 05, 2020, 08:16:28 PM by Gordon »

Gordon

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2020, 08:17:05 PM »
According to this, which mentions the situation in Scotland, it may be an even greater issue in England.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/07/a-level-result-predictions-to-be-downgraded-england

Gordon

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2020, 03:03:28 PM »
Nicola Sturgeon concedes that they got it wrong and apologises, and we will find out tomorrow how this will be resolved. Since she says it won't involve dependence on appeals process as the 'fix' I'd imagine that it will involve reversion to the lower of either the prelim results or teacher assessments - or something like that.

Since reports suggest that the results in England, to be announced later this week, have been calculated on a similar basis to how Scotland approached this, where this approach s now being backed away from, it seems likely that similar concerns will be raised in England - so and it will be interesting to see how that plays out and if the about-turn by the Scottish Government adds pressure to do the same in England.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/aug/10/nicola-sturgeon-promises-urgent-review-of-124000-downgraded-exam-results-scotland
« Last Edit: August 10, 2020, 03:17:48 PM by Gordon »

jeremyp

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2020, 04:52:10 PM »
I'm going to post the BBC link to the same story.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53719477

It's got a lovely photograph of a person with a protest sign that says "my postcode should not effect my results".
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2020, 06:52:25 PM »
According to this, which mentions the situation in Scotland, it may be an even greater issue in England.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/07/a-level-result-predictions-to-be-downgraded-england
Yes I think the issue will be just as bad, if not worse, in England.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2020, 03:25:39 PM »

Roses

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2020, 03:33:16 PM »
I should think a similar about turn is likely to take place when the A level and GCSE predicted grades are announced this week and next.
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Gordon

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2020, 04:02:25 PM »
This was probably the only way to resolve this: you'd have thought that the SQA would have realised early on that trying to handle results based on professional judgement, to try and make them comparable with previous years that were based on exams, was a square peg/round hole risk and, mixing metaphors, was a classic example of trying to treat oranges as if they were apples.

It is a U-turn, but those affected won't care about that once the revised grades are released, and I'd imagine the since the SNP were prepared to say they 'got it wrong', rather than keep on trying to defend the indefensible, voters might not hold it against them for too long - whether Swinney can survive is another matter.

I'm watching the debate in Holyrood just now and thought some of the Tory questions were less robust than I'd have expected - but of course the A level results due in England this week will, it has been reported, produce an even greater incidence of teacher-estimated grades being revised downwards and, if so, I wonder if the events here in Scotland will influence the reaction in England.

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2020, 04:21:12 PM »
This was probably the only way to resolve this: you'd have thought that the SQA would have realised early on that trying to handle results based on professional judgement, to try and make them comparable with previous years that were based on exams, was a square peg/round hole risk and, mixing metaphors, was a classic example of trying to treat oranges as if they were apples.

It is a U-turn, but those affected won't care about that once the revised grades are released, and I'd imagine the since the SNP were prepared to say they 'got it wrong', rather than keep on trying to defend the indefensible, voters might not hold it against them for too long - whether Swinney can survive is another matter.

I'm watching the debate in Holyrood just now and thought some of the Tory questions were less robust than I'd have expected - but of course the A level results due in England this week will, it has been reported, produce an even greater incidence of teacher-estimated grades being revised downwards and, if so, I wonder if the events here in Scotland will influence the reaction in England.
It looks like the Hapless Williamsons days are numbered then. Perhaps Johnson will keep him until he needs a sacrifice then he will sack him in short order.

jeremyp

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2020, 08:10:17 PM »
I should think a similar about turn is likely to take place when the A level and GCSE predicted grades are announced this week and next.

I think you'll find that the English results will be superficially fine but there will be odd little anomalies and errors that point to a lot of people working very long stressful hours over the last couple of days.
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2020, 01:56:37 PM »
I think you'll find that the English results will be superficially fine but there will be odd little anomalies and errors that point to a lot of people working very long stressful hours over the last couple of days.
System looks like a guddle

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-53746140

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2020, 02:08:47 PM »
I think you'll find that the English results will be superficially fine ...
Why do you think that - any results that markedly deviate from teacher assessment using a very crude school-level based algorithm will not be superficially fine - they will be fundamentally flawed.

The problem is that it is way too late for these issues to become apparent and for there to be attempts at redress. Universities across the UK will already have received A-level results (under strict embargo) and will have made decisions on who is, and is not, offered a place on the basis of those results. How will applicants and universities unravel that process if (at some point) official 'mock' exam results might over-ride the current grades. By that point the place not offered may no longer be available.

It is a mess.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 02:13:04 PM by ProfessorDavey »

Walter

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2020, 02:46:03 PM »
I took a Scottish exam once ,
I concluded it's a speach defect , not an accent !

Btw  I think you mean results of exams in Scotland.

I'm not a pedant and I don't wear a necklace anymore  x

jeremyp

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2020, 03:07:00 PM »
Why do you think that - any results that markedly deviate from teacher assessment using a very crude school-level based algorithm will not be superficially fine - they will be fundamentally flawed.
"superficially fine" and "fundamentally flawed" are not mutually exclusive.

The English authorities have seen the fiasco that happened in Scotland and have attempted to work out something that doesn't look quite as bad.

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Universities across the UK will already have received A-level results (under strict embargo) and will have made decisions on who is, and is not, offered a place on the basis of those results.

They will be told to look again. I think it's quite quaint the way you think pre-pandemic rules still apply. These are unprecedented times. You shouldn't rule out unprecedented actions.

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It is a mess.
Yes it is, but standing around saying "it's a mess" won't get it sorted out. In retrospect, I think they should have held the exams, but that's water under the bridge now. Instead, I suspect the admissions staff of universities and exam board staff are having an exceptionally bad summer.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2020, 03:35:57 PM »
They will be told to look again. I think it's quite quaint the way you think pre-pandemic rules still apply. These are unprecedented times. You shouldn't rule out unprecedented actions.
And how exactly will that work.

Tomorrow morning universities will confirm that many students have been accepted onto courses on the basis that they've met their offer grades. They won't be able to revoke those places, and in many cases these students will be on courses with only a finite number of places available, for all sorts of resourcing reasons. It is all very well to say they will need to 'look again', but if thousands of students, whose mock results are better than their grade announced tomorrow appeal and have their higher mark confirmed - what can universities do. They can't revise a place already confirmed, they may not have space for these students who have appealed successfully. At best they can offer them a place starting in 2021, but that is hardly helping those students is it.

The government and Ofqual must have recognised the issue ages ago - that was the time for action, allowing the revised approach to feed through to both students and universities in time for the final release of grades tomorrow. Making an 11th hour announcement the day before the results are released to students and after they have been released to universities is chaotic incompetence and knee-jerk politics.

jeremyp

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2020, 05:10:00 PM »
Tomorrow morning universities will confirm that many students have been accepted onto courses on the basis that they've met their offer grades. They won't be able to revoke those places, and in many cases these students will be on courses with only a finite number of places available, for all sorts of resourcing reasons. It is all very well to say they will need to 'look again', but if thousands of students, whose mock results are better than their grade announced tomorrow appeal and have their higher mark confirmed - what can universities do. They can't revise a place already confirmed, they may not have space for these students who have appealed successfully. At best they can offer them a place starting in 2021, but that is hardly helping those students is it.

They will have spaces for all the students that want to attend University this autumn. For one thing, all the spaces reserved for foreign students will remain unfilled. For another, I expect an unprecedented number of students to try to defer until next year.

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The government and Ofqual must have recognised the issue ages ago
If they did, they have more foresight than the Scottish government.

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that was the time for action

You can say that until you are blue in the face. It won't alter the facts as they stand.

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allowing the revised approach to feed through to both students and universities in time for the final release of grades tomorrow. Making an 11th hour announcement the day before the results are released to students and after they have been released to universities is chaotic incompetence and knee-jerk politics.
What else could they do in light of the fiasco that occurred in Scotland? They could have done lots of things differently in the past, but they didn't and we can't change that. So tell me what they could do now to make things better.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2020, 05:26:41 PM »
They will have spaces for all the students that want to attend University this autumn.
Which many universities will have filled tomorrow for the most attractive courses and universities. Where does that leave students who may be able to appeal on the basis that their final grade was worse than their mocks. Usually this is small numbers (and therefore likely manageable by universities), but this year it is likely to be huge numbers.

For one thing, all the spaces reserved for foreign students will remain unfilled.
Don't count on it - most universities are moving to a blended approach for next year, which means it may be even more attractive for foreign students who will be able to study from home next year and then attend in person in their 2nd year.

For another, I expect an unprecedented number of students to try to defer until next year.
True, although universities may not allow then to. Firstly, on the basis that it would be unfair to next year's students if huge numbers of places have already been mopped up by deferring students. Secondly on the basis of finance.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2020, 06:00:22 PM »
For one thing, all the spaces reserved for foreign students will remain unfilled.
But universities cannot do that as the Government has introduced a temporary student number control system for this year.

This means that each university is capped in the numbers of home students it can take. This was brought in to prevent some universities filling their boots with home students to fill a potential gap in overseas students, resulting in other universities bring unable to fill places and going bust.

But the upshot of this policy is that universities won't have additional places available, as they are capped. Actually in previous years a university could take as many home students as it wanted. The cap will exacerbate the grades issue as once a university has reached its cap (for the most popular this will be first thing tomorrow) there can be no more places available for students who might have their grades improved on appeal. In previous years a university would have discretion over whether to take that student - this year the cap means that discretion is removed - once they are full, they are full.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2020, 07:48:38 PM by ProfessorDavey »

Nearly Sane

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2020, 07:28:04 PM »

What else could they do in light of the fiasco that occurred in Scotland? They could have done lots of things differently in the past, but they didn't and we can't change that. So tell me what they could do now to make things better.
Not introduce an even more confused approach opposed by students, teachers, and unions.

jeremyp

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #21 on: August 13, 2020, 08:50:14 AM »
Don't count on it - most universities are moving to a blended approach for next year, which means it may be even more attractive for foreign students who will be able to study from home next year and then attend in person in their 2nd year.
I would have thought that one of the attractions to studying abroad is the abroad part.

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True, although universities may not allow then to. Firstly, on the basis that it would be unfair to next year's students if huge numbers of places have already been mopped up by deferring students. Secondly on the basis of finance.

"Oh no. We've promised places to too many students. What can we we do? I know, let's not allow all the students who want to defer a year to do that."

However unfair it is to next year's students, it is as nothing compared to what is happening now. You need to get it into your head that these are not normal times. Perfect fairness is not achievable.
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jeremyp

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2020, 08:52:36 AM »
Not introduce an even more confused approach opposed by students, teachers, and unions.
What should they have done in the light of the Scottish results? Left things as they were?

Come on. I'm seeing lots of whining about about what is a very difficult situation. I'm not seeing any better alternative being proposed.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #23 on: August 13, 2020, 10:04:44 AM »
I would have thought that one of the attractions to studying abroad is the abroad part.
Actually for the countries that provide the greatest numbers of overseas students gaining a degree from a leading UK university is the primary consideration, studying abroad a secondary one. And of course living in the UK is expensive if you are from China or India. This is one of the reasons why many UK universities have off-shoots in those countries - allowing students to gain a degree from a UK university without the cost of travelling.

So I don't think the notion of studying for your first year at home, and then moving to the UK for further years will be particularly unattractive.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Scottish Exam Results
« Reply #24 on: August 13, 2020, 10:12:39 AM »
You need to get it into your head that these are not normal times. Perfect fairness is not achievable.
Indeed they are - which is why today universities across the country will be trying to limit uncertainty and risk, and they will do that by filling their available places to as close to the government imposed cap as they can. If you understand how universities work (I do let's not forget) the notion of holding open places that you could fill today on the basis that they might or might not be filled in mid Sept when appeal results come out is bonkers.

Universities have never been under any obligation to hold an offer open until an exam results appeal is heard, even when they had no cap on numbers. With a cap on numbers (go over your cap and you lose up to 15% of your funding) and the priority will be to get to the cap, and with it financial certainty, as soon as possible and not under any circumstances to go over the cap.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2020, 11:18:51 AM by ProfessorDavey »