Has the UK population gone up or down in the last year?

[Nearly Sane]

Very different numbers dependent on who you believe.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9150821/UK-population-shrunk-1-3million-amid-pandemic.html

[torridon]

Well, we'll have a census in March, so that should clarify things a lot

[Owlswing]

Never mind the total number of people in the UK, I'll be more interested in the rise or fall in the number of Christians.

Owlswing

)O(

[torridon]

You'll get that from the census

[ekim]

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

[Nearly Sane]

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

If the figures are correct then the median age increase is worrying.

[Nearly Sane]

And a piece on the falling birth rates in many countries

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/24/as-birth-rates-fall-animals-prowl-in-our-abandoned-ghost-villages?fbclid=IwAR1awzkLYo9LDFTFsmqUDpY5oEzgUrlwDO4uqcuxn3FgrtFsMIH2ixx3fas

[Owlswing]

And a piece on the falling birth rates in many countries

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/24/as-birth-rates-fall-animals-prowl-in-our-abandoned-ghost-villages?fbclid=IwAR1awzkLYo9LDFTFsmqUDpY5oEzgUrlwDO4uqcuxn3FgrtFsMIH2ixx3fas

The comments about the resurgence of predatory wild-life, bears, foxes, etc is a plus from my point of view.

In most animals, common sense appears to be alive and well.

I'm not sure if it is a fact or not, but the apparent ability of animals to live without the interference of same species politicians is to be praised.

Owlswing

)O(

[Udayana]

If the figures are correct then the median age increase is worrying.

Really? Why so?

[Nearly Sane]

Really? Why so?

The median age going up by .4 in a year is a substantial change. It mean that there is an increasing pace of older people on pensions and fewer of people of working age paying for the pensions. We've utilised immigration in the past to both slow that median age increase and to increase the ratio of those of working age paying taxes to maintain the pensions.

[Harrowby Hall]

We've utilised immigration in the past to both slow that median age increase and to increase the ratio of those of working age paying taxes to maintain the pensions.

Another own goal by Brexiteers.

[Nearly Sane]

Another own goal by Brexiteers.

To be fair, as a policy it was a bit of a Ponzi scheme  and you could be a Brexiteer and argue for wider immigration.

[Udayana]

The median age going up by .4 in a year is a substantial change. It mean that there is an increasing pace of older people on pensions and fewer of people of working age paying for the pensions. We've utilised immigration in the past to both slow that median age increase and to increase the ratio of those of working age paying taxes to maintain the pensions.

Ah, well, people want to live longer and not have children, or not too many, so economic affairs have to be arranged to support that. This means a mix of: working longer before retirement, smaller pensions, increased immigration from countries with younger populations, investment in and emigration to those countries and so on.

More or less as has been happening since the 60s ?
 
Of-course if we don't fix global warming, cooperatively manage the world economy and do just rely on herd immunity for pandemics - the problem will solve itself.
 

[Owlswing]

What effect is Covid having on various age-groups?

Is the death toll reducing the amount being paid out in pensions or reducing the amount being paid into pensions?

Owlswing

)O(

[Nearly Sane]

What effect is Covid having on various age-groups?

Is the death toll reducing the amount being paid out in pensions or reducing the amount being paid into pensions?

Owlswing

)O(

Well you see that's on of the worrying things about the significant increase in the median age. Covid has in terms of deaths hit older people hardest. And with a large number of excess deaths in post 70s you would might expect that would hold down the median age. That it hadn't implies, if the numbers are correct  that we are somehow losing large numbers of young people in some way.

Actually writing that makes me wonder if some of the effect is a reduction in overseas students because of Covid.

[Owlswing]

Well, you see that's one of the worrying things about the significant increase in the median age. Covid has in terms of deaths hit older people hardest. And with a large number of excess deaths in post-70s, you would expect that would hold down the median age. That it hadn't implied if the numbers are correct that we are somehow losing large numbers of young people in some way.

Actually writing that makes me wonder if some of the effect is a reduction in overseas students because of Covid.

If that is the case, what is the cause of the reduction? Emigration/Repatriation? Deaths?

Owlswing

)O(
 

[Nearly Sane]

If that is the case, what is the cause of the reduction? Emigration/Repatriation? Deaths?

Owlswing

)O(

I think some care is needed with the figures as these are estimates. If you look at the net immigration figures, it's been apparently the exact same  for 5 years which points to some algorithm that is a bit blunt. And if you go back further then the figures are simply wrong. The only way to make the figures make sense that I can see, with what we know of Covid deaths, the increase they are saying in the population, the net migration figure, would be to think we had a lot of young migrants leave to be replaced by much older migrants - which I think is unlikely in the extreme.

So, I wouldn't place too much emphasis on them.

[Nearly Sane]

Ah, well, people want to live longer and not have children, or not too many, so economic affairs have to be arranged to support that. This means a mix of: working longer before retirement, smaller pensions, increased immigration from countries with younger populations, investment in and emigration to those countries and so on.

More or less as has been happening since the 60s ?
 
Of-course if we don't fix global warming, cooperatively manage the world economy and do just rely on herd immunity for pandemics - the problem will solve itself.
 

Allowing for my doubts about the figures, see above post to Owlswing, then yes, it's a long term problem but if you do take the figures on median age as useful then it started affecting the median age significantly in the 80s, then a pause, then around 2005 another spurt. That then stops and in 5 years 2015 to 2019, the median age goes up by .1 combined as opposed to .4 in 1 year.


Again as in the reply to Owlswing, if you look at the figures in more detail it's hard to feel confident about that one figure.

[ProfessorDavey]

Allowing for my doubts about the figures, see above post to Owlswing, then yes, it's a long term problem but if you do take the figures on median age as useful then it started affecting the median age significantly in the 80s, then a pause, then around 2005 another spurt. That then stops and in 5 years 2015 to 2019, the median age goes up by .1 combined as opposed to .4 in 1 year.


Again as in the reply to Owlswing, if you look at the figures in more detail it's hard to feel confident about that one figure.

I don't think the figures are remotely accurate, and look to me to be merely a rather crude estimate from a few years ago. Why - well because the net migration rate is identical in every year from 2016 to 2020 (I don't think that is true), and also the fertility rate is also identical from 2016-2019, to two decimal places - again I doubt that to be true. And it will be the latter that drives the 'estimated' increase in median age I imagine as the 2020 figure suddenly drops from 1.84 to 1.75.

Given that certain key numbers seem to be crude estimates I doubt there has been any proper assessment of the impact of covid - indeed I've no confidence these data weren't produced years ago with a 'forward look'.

[Udayana]

I don't think the figures are remotely accurate, and look to me to be merely a rather crude estimate from a few years ago. Why - well because the net migration rate is identical in every year from 2016 to 2020 (I don't think that is true), and also the fertility rate is also identical from 2016-2019, to two decimal places - again I doubt that to be true. And it will be the latter that drives the 'estimated' increase in median age I imagine as the 2020 figure suddenly drops from 1.84 to 1.75.

Given that certain key numbers seem to be crude estimates I doubt there has been any proper assessment of the impact of covid - indeed I've no confidence these data weren't produced years ago with a 'forward look'.

Yes, the figures given for years after 2015 are almost certainly based on provisional data and certainly don't include any effects from covid.

The ONS say the following, from their latest report Jan 2021, based on stats from 2019, at:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/january2021#the-uks-population-is-ageing 

Like many other countries, the UK's age structure is shifting towards older ages. By 2050, it is projected that one in four people in the UK will be aged 65 years and over -- an increase from approximately one in five in 2019. This is the result of the combination of declining fertility rates and people living longer.
...
In 1999, around one in six people were 65 years and over (15.8%), this increased to one in every five people in 2019 (18.5%) and is projected to reach around one in every four people (23.9%) by 2039.

Comparatively, an estimated 20.4% of the population were under 16 years old in 1999, decreasing to 19.0% in 2019 and this is projected to decline to 16.9% by 2039. In 1999, 63.8% of the population were aged 16 to 64 years old, down to 62.5% in 2019 and projected to decline to 59.2% in 2039.

[Owlswing]

I don't think the figures are remotely accurate, and look to me to be merely a rather crude estimate from a few years ago. Why - well because the net migration rate is identical in every year from 2016 to 2020 (I don't think that is true), and also the fertility rate is also identical from 2016-2019, to two decimal places - again I doubt that to be true. And it will be the latter that drives the 'estimated' increase in median age I imagine as the 2020 figure suddenly drops from 1.84 to 1.75.

Given that certain key numbers seem to be crude estimates I doubt there has been any proper assessment of the impact of covid - indeed I've no confidence these data weren't produced years ago with a 'forward look'.

My grandfather (when my grandmother was not in earshot) would say, in certain appropriate situations, that there are "liars, bloody liars, fucking liars and statistics!"