Author Topic: Illusion of Knowledge  (Read 611 times)

Sriram

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Illusion of Knowledge
« on: August 16, 2022, 07:14:52 AM »
Hi everyone,

An article about the 'Illusion of Knowledge'. Though the article talks about job interviews and stuff like that....I think it is a fundamental problem in much more serious matters.

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20220812-the-illusion-of-knowledge-that-makes-people-overconfident

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It’s easy to think you’re a font of knowledge. And while you may have plenty of skills and expertise, it’s quite likely you know less than you think.

If you consider yourself reasonably intelligent and educated, you might assume that you have a fair grasp on the core ways the world works – knowledge about the familiar inventions and natural phenomena that surround us.

If you are like many of the participants in psychological studies, you may have initially expected to perform very well. However, when they are asked to offer a nuanced answer to each question, most people are completely stumped – just as you may be, too.

This bias is known as an “illusion of knowledge”. You may think that these specific examples are trivial – they’re the kinds of questions, after all, that an inquisitive child might ask you, where the worst consequence may be a red face in front of your family. But illusions of knowledge can afflict our judgement in many domains. In the workplace, for example, it can lead us to overclaim our knowledge in an interview, overlook the contributions of our colleagues and take on jobs we may be wholly unable to perform.

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I think our 'illusion of knowledge' is what has got us into a mess in many areas around the world including climate change, food shortage etc. Science enthusiasts in general assumed knowledge and control (at least in the 20th century and earlier) much more than they really had or was possible.

Cheers.

Sriram

Nearly Sane

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Re: Illusion of Knowledge
« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2022, 09:47:01 AM »
I think the idea is interesting and persuasive. The examples given seem, on the basis of the article, backed up by reasonable experimentation. The issue I have is wondering whether this is just a negative trait as painted by the article. People's willingness to try things with over confidence is surely also in some ways a good thing because if they waited till they had knowledge, then by definition they would never do them.

As to this being why we have crises such as clumate change, and this being because 'science enthusiasts', whatever they may be, are somehow just over confident, this strikes me as having a number of issues but I will concentrate on two.

First, the article is about using a scientific approach to analyse how we evaluate knowledge, and its recommendation is that very scientific approach of testing things. As someone who in the main has earned their money by testing things, this seems fine but also highlights that the scientific approach is based around checks and balances 


The second issue is more about a perception of things being caused by science, and on concentrating on what are seen as the negative consequences. Food shortages are more ab issue of us having an expanded population and a lack of a political way to share food but it's only via use of science that we can maintain the population both through improvements in food production, and in health.

I feel the need to go Rumsfeldian, and note that there are things we know we know, or rather think we know, things we think we don't think we know but know, things we think we know we don't know, and things we don't know we don't know. The last of these is by far the largest pot but the only way we have to reduce it is science and reason. IWe will always have to action without full knowledge but it's a mistake to think that inaction is not itself a choice of action.




« Last Edit: August 16, 2022, 09:50:19 AM by Nearly Sane »

SqueakyVoice

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Re: Illusion of Knowledge
« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2022, 12:45:12 PM »
Quote
It was French philosopher Claude Lévi-Strauss who once said: "The scientist is not a person who gives the right answers, he is one who asks the right questions...

.And he was right. Asking the right questions is the essence of good science.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/jan/28/asking-right-question

Worry more about knowledge and control. It is more about patriarcy and various versions of colonialism than science. I'd include climate change, though that's more about greed (like smoking and gun control).

Udayana

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Re: Illusion of Knowledge
« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2022, 02:13:16 PM »
Good articles.

I've been reading "The Undoing Project" (Michael Lewis) on the work of Tversky and Kahneman in a similar area. Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" next on my list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect

However, don't see see how one can validly generalise from individual or team psychology to humanity or subject areas as a whole.
Ah, but I was so much older then ... I'm younger than that now