Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023

[Maeght]

Adequate performance from Scotland, but failing to put as many points past Tonga as Ireland did. Not only shows that they are in that slightly lower tier from the top 2, but if the group does ever come down to points different that could be telling.

Another farcical review of a head collision for the first Tongan yellow card, though.

O.

There was a dip by the Scottish player which the Bunker Ref considered mitigation.

[Outrider]

There was a dip by the Scottish player which the Bunker Ref considered mitigation.

I was joined by pretty much every ex-professional pundit and not a few of the sports commentators in thinking that wasn't nearly enough of a dip to warrant consideration. Glad to see the second yellow has been upped to a red, at least.

And a strong result for Wales, too. I though they would win, but I expected it to be closer than that. They improved their game since Fiji, and Australia, if anything, got worse.

O.

[jeremyp]

I was joined by pretty much every ex-professional pundit and not a few of the sports commentators in thinking that wasn't nearly enough of a dip to warrant consideration. Glad to see the second yellow has been upped to a red, at least.

If you are going to count obviously accidental hits as red cards, as in the first England match, the fact that the Scotland player dipped into it shouldn't matter. It was extremely dangerous.

[Nearly Sane]

Latest rankings

[Maeght]

If you are going to count obviously accidental hits as red cards, as in the first England match, the fact that the Scotland player dipped into it shouldn't matter. It was extremely dangerous.

If he hadn't dipped would the hit have been on the chest?

[Nearly Sane]

Well that's 2 people saying not to sack Eddie Jones


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/66914086

[Outrider]

Well that's 2 people saying not to sack Eddie Jones


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/66914086

Was quite amused by one commentator's rather wry observation that it would serve Australia well to wait until they're on the verge of actually having players capable of competing at the top level, then ditch Jones in order to suggest that the lean times were his doing and the new broom they've brought in has been effective.

O.

[jeremyp]

If he hadn't dipped would the hit have been on the chest?

The direction of the hit was upwards. If there had been no dipping, I think he would still have been hit.

But that isn't the point I was making. Contact with the head is considered so dangerous that even doing it accidentally is deserving of a red card. The fact that the other guy dipped doesn't lessen the danger. So why is it suddenly "safe"?

[Maeght]

The direction of the hit was upwards. If there had been no dipping, I think he would still have been hit.

But that isn't the point I was making. Contact with the head is considered so dangerous that even doing it accidentally is deserving of a red card. The fact that the other guy dipped doesn't lessen the danger. So why is it suddenly "safe"?

I don't think the hit would have been to the head. So if that tackle had made contact with the chest you would still expect a red card? If not, then surely you must take the mitigation of what the tackled player does into consideration. If not then there will be multiple red cards every match. At community rugby level the tackle height threshold is lowered from this year and it will be very interesting to see how that goes. The game needs to change or else it won't survive but if this is really possible I'm not sure.

[jeremyp]

The BBC have come up with a scenario in which England fail to qualify. It is possible for England, Argentina and Samoa to all end up with 14 points. In that scenario, you can't break the deadlock by using head to head games so points difference comes in to play.

Why is this of interest, I hear you say?

Well, this leads to an interesting scenario for the last game. If Samoa have scored three tries and England are more than seven points behind them in the last five minutes - say it's 21-3 to Samoa, for example - England can qualify for the QF by letting Samoa score another try.

[jeremyp]

I don't think the hit would have been to the head.

Well I do.

But my point is that there was a hit to the head. It was dangerous, so why isn't it a red card. In other scenarios, purely accidental hits to the head have been red cards, so why not this? This was a much more dangerous scenario than the one that got Tom Curry sent off and banned for two games.

I think the red card for an accidental hit is too harsh, or at least, the red card and two game ban is too harsh.

[Nearly Sane]

The BBC have come up with a scenario in which England fail to qualify. It is possible for England, Argentina and Samoa to all end up with 14 points. In that scenario, you can't break the deadlock by using head to head games so points difference comes in to play.

Why is this of interest, I hear you say?

Well, this leads to an interesting scenario for the last game. If Samoa have scored three tries and England are more than seven points behind them in the last five minutes - say it's 21-3 to Samoa, for example - England can qualify for the QF by letting Samoa score another try.

Would Samoa needed to have taken 5 points from the Japan game for that?

[Maeght]

Well I do.

But my point is that there was a hit to the head. It was dangerous, so why isn't it a red card. In other scenarios, purely accidental hits to the head have been red cards, so why not this? This was a much more dangerous scenario than the one that got Tom Curry sent off and banned for two games.

I think the red card for an accidental hit is too harsh, or at least, the red card and two game ban is too harsh.

Curry put himself into a position where head contact was inevitable and there was no mitigation. There was in this case since it's not clear that there would have been head contact without the dip. The bunker refs felt that there wouldn't have been. It's not about intent but about a duty of care of course so you could say he shouldn't have tackled in a way whereby the dip led to head contact. Whether that approach could work I'm not sure. There is an effort to change the game without destroying it, hence the lower tackle 'trial' of tackles needing to be below the bottom of the sternum. I do see the point you are making.

[jeremyp]

Would Samoa needed to have taken 5 points from the Japan game for that?

Yes, and, in fact they would need to beat Japan by a lot in order to negate England's vastly superior points difference (also Argentina would have to score a lot of points in their last two games for the same reason).

[jeremyp]

Curry put himself into a position where head contact was inevitable and there was no mitigation. There was in this case since it's not clear that there would have been head contact without the dip. The bunker refs felt that there wouldn't have been. It's not about intent but about a duty of care of course so you could say he shouldn't have tackled in a way whereby the dip led to head contact. Whether that approach could work I'm not sure. There is an effort to change the game without destroying it, hence the lower tackle 'trial' of tackles needing to be below the bottom of the sternum. I do see the point you are making.

The dip was pretty minimal. Let's be honest, the Tonga player smashed the Scotland player in the head with his shoulder. That's always been considered highly illegal and dangerous.

[Maeght]

The dip was pretty minimal. Let's be honest, the Tonga player smashed the Scotland player in the head with his shoulder. That's always been considered highly illegal and dangerous.

I don't agree about the dip being minimal, and clearly neither did the bunker ref.

To summarise my thoughts;

The tackler could have gone lower which would have resulted in a totally legal tackle.
The tackler made contact with the head so the tackle was dangerous and illegal, but there was mitigation hence yellow rather than red.
If there was no mitigation then it would have been red.
That is under the current rules that the refs have to follow.
The legal tackle height will need to be lowered or else the game has no future (will be sued out of existence).
Whether a lower legal tackle height will destroy the game is yet to be seen.

[jeremyp]

Japan have beaten Samoa. Bizarrely that means England have won the group.

[Nearly Sane]

Maybe not the wisest statement


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/66951420

[jeremyp]

Maybe not the wisest statement


https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/66951420

Other nations may have caught up, but not Italy.

I still think the ABs are the fourth strongest team in the tournament.

[Nearly Sane]

"The nightmare scoreline for South Africa goes like this: if Scotland beat Ireland by 21 points or more with a four-try bonus and Ireland get a four-try bonus point in defeat, then South Africa will be knocked out of the Rugby World Cup. Scotland would go through as pool winners, while due to their head-to-head loss with Ireland and a points difference lower than Scotland, the Boks would be eliminated.

According to the match-fixing conspiracy theories doing the rounds on the internet,  Ireland and Scotland could agree to this result, as it’s the one scenario that would see them both qualify. What’s in it for Ireland? They guarantee that they won’t have to face the Springboks again at the tournament"

Simple really.



https://www.rugbypass.com/news/the-ireland-scotland-scoreline-thatd-knock-south-africa-out-of-world-cup/

[jeremyp]

"The nightmare scoreline for South Africa goes like this: if Scotland beat Ireland by 21 points or more with a four-try bonus and Ireland get a four-try bonus point in defeat, then South Africa will be knocked out of the Rugby World Cup. Scotland would go through as pool winners, while due to their head-to-head loss with Ireland and a points difference lower than Scotland, the Boks would be eliminated.

According to the match-fixing conspiracy theories doing the rounds on the internet,  Ireland and Scotland could agree to this result, as it’s the one scenario that would see them both qualify. What’s in it for Ireland? They guarantee that they won’t have to face the Springboks again at the tournament"

Simple really.



https://www.rugbypass.com/news/the-ireland-scotland-scoreline-thatd-knock-south-africa-out-of-world-cup/

Ireland would have to get their bonus point through scoring four tries because Scotland need a +21 points difference on them to overhaul RSA. So we are talking about Scotland getting at least 41 points against Ireland (assuming no penalties, drop goals or conversions from Ireland) but Ireland still being good enough to put four tries over the line.

It's not happening.

[Outrider]

Ireland would have to get their bonus point through scoring four tries because Scotland need a +21 points difference on them to overhaul RSA. So we are talking about Scotland getting at least 41 points against Ireland (assuming no penalties, drop goals or conversions from Ireland) but Ireland still being good enough to put four tries over the line.

It's not happening.

I can't see a scenario where Ireland and Scotland both go through, Scotland needed a losing bonus point against South Africa to give themselves a realistic chance. As it stands, if Scotland win they could go through, but only because Ireland would go out (I can't see Ireland letting Scotland get a big score). Realistically, Scotland are probably heading home - when the likes of England, Fiji/Japan/Samoa and (probably) Fiji are going through to the quarter finals that's a damning indictment of the draw.

O.

[Nearly Sane]

I can't see a scenario where Ireland and Scotland both go through, Scotland needed a losing bonus point against South Africa to give themselves a realistic chance. As it stands, if Scotland win they could go through, but only because Ireland would go out (I can't see Ireland letting Scotland get a big score). Realistically, Scotland are probably heading home - when the likes of England, Fiji/Japan/Samoa and (probably) Fiji are going through to the quarter finals that's a damning indictment of the draw.

O.

Yes, it's not going to happen.  I posted the link as it covered that the only possibility that it would happen is some sort of fix.

I think Scotland are probably the 5th best team in the world as in the rankings, but also as in the rankings there's a big gap between 4th and 5th. On a luckier draw we could have made the semi finals but that, as with whoever appears in the semifinals from the England and Wales groups would be as underserved in my opinion.

[Outrider]

Yes, it's not going to happen.  I posted the link as it covered that the only possibility that it would happen is some sort of fix.

I think Scotland are probably the 5th best team in the world as in the rankings, but also as in the rankings there's a big gap between 4th and 5th. On a luckier draw we could have made the semi finals but that, as with whoever appears in the semifinals from the England and Wales groups would be as underserved in my opinion.

I think the classic 'Tier 1', 'Tier 2', 'Tier 3' model is far beyond its date. The old Tier 1, at any given moment, can be split into at least two groups, and the second of them (Scotland down to somewhere around England and Australia, currently) can be counted on to reliably win against the next tier down, but it's not a guarantee and it's not going to be by fifty points a time like it used to be.

O.

[jeremyp]

I can't see a scenario where Ireland and Scotland both go through, Scotland needed a losing bonus point against South Africa to give themselves a realistic chance. As it stands, if Scotland win they could go through, but only because Ireland would go out (I can't see Ireland letting Scotland get a big score). Realistically, Scotland are probably heading home - when the likes of England, Fiji/Japan/Samoa and (probably) Fiji are going through to the quarter finals that's a damning indictment of the draw.

O.

If NS's scenario occurs, you can't resolve the deadlock on head to head because RSA beat Scotland, Ireland beat RSA and Scotland will have beaten Ireland.

The deadlock will be broken on points difference - Scotland will have the best points difference of the three teams so they go through. The second place will then be determined by the head to head between Ireland and RSA so Ireland will go through.

It's unlikely to happen except through shenanigans. If the teams cooperated, they could manufacture a scoreline where Ireland got four tries but Scotland ended 21 points ahead (with at least four tries).