Author Topic: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023  (Read 14019 times)

jeremyp

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #200 on: October 17, 2023, 11:13:05 AM »
Oh dear, now you've started making stuff up.

No. There really were four. That's why they are called "quarter finals".
Quote
Tier 1 rugby nations are defined as those that play in the 6 nations (England, France, Wales, Ireland, Scotland, Italy) or in the rugby championship (NZ, SA, Australia, Argentina).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/67048489
 

'Tier one consists of the European teams who play in the Six Nations (England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland, France and Italy), and the four who compete in the southern hemisphere's Rugby Championship (Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Argentina).'

So your claim that there were only two matches involving two tier 1 sides is demonstrably non-sense. There were three:
NZ vs Ireland
SA vs Wales
Wales vs Argentina
"Tier 1" isn't really a formal definition. There are four teams of roughly equal ability at the top of the rankings and they are a long way ahead of the group behind them.

So anyway, how's your calculation of statistical significance coming along?
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #201 on: October 17, 2023, 11:21:31 AM »
You could equally argue that the 'home advantage' actually added pressure to the French, and doesn't really represent much of a home advantage for, particularly, England (Ireland and Wales perhaps).
I think it is generally accepted that NH sides will find it that bit harder playing in the SH and vice versa, not least due to the challenges of time zones and effectively having to adjust to a completely different season (you do understand that our physiology doesn't like that!). It is pretty hard to argue that NZ, SA and Argentina were somehow advantaged by playing in France compared to France, Wales and Ireland.

It might be a continuation of that pattern, but the fact that there is so much discussion about how it's surprising that all three matches went the way of the SH sides suggests that perhaps it's not. We could be at the stage where the SH sides are not significantly better, as they have been in the past, but rather it was just the 'statistical aberration' of close sides separated by the bounce of the ball. In order to demonstrate that the NH sides now need to build on this and stay competitive - the SH status isn't built on one tournament, but rather on their consistent ability to operate at or near the top. The NH sides have periodically had one side or another have a peak, but rarely have they had two or three sides in the top five, rarely have they had two sides in realistic consideration for a major tournament.
But it never seems to drop the other way does it. I get it that sometimes there are slim margins, there are critical decisions and ball bounces that make the difference between winning and losing. But over time you'd expect these things to even out - sometimes the SH sides get the rub of the green sometimes the NH sides. But that isn't the case here - when push comes to shove in the world cup the SH sides come out on top - and when that happens as a continuing pattern you have to look beyond the rub of the green, the fine margins. And accept the clear conclusion - that the SH teams are just better - 8 (likely 9 in a couple of weeks) world cups to 1 tells its own story.

And it may be that the pressure of a tournament is playing a part, a legacy of that sense of the having been there and done it vs it being new territory,
I think that's part of it - the big three SH sides simply have a heritage of winning the world cup - they know how to do it. The NH sides (with the exception of England) don't. And that probably plays into the mentality side of things - the SH sides simply expect to come out on top and guess what, they do.

... but I don't accept the notion that the All Blacks or the South Africans play any less intensely outside of the World Cup than they do in any other competitive match.
But the SH sides don't play NH sides in properly competitive fixtures except at the world cup. The summer internationals down under and the autumn internations aren't really competitive at all - in many cases the matches are played by 'experimental' sides as teams use them as useful training exercises to blood new players, try new tactics, in a manner they'd never dream of doing in a world cup quarter final or semi final etc.

So the only time we really get to see who is top dog between SH and NH sides is once every 4 years at the world cup - and yet again we see the SH sides rising to the top.

I must admit I find this level of hand wringing complacency rather startling if you actually want to see NH sides genuinely competing against the SH sides at the world cup. While you continue to put it down to an unfortunate bounce of the ball or 'fine margins' the SH sides will continue to dominate. Only by accepting that they are, frankly, better will the NH rugby authorities start to look at what they need to do in terms of root and branch changes to the game in the NH to make them competitive.

But hey denial is a river in Egypt (not a tier 1 rugby playing nation).
« Last Edit: October 17, 2023, 11:41:33 AM by ProfessorDavey »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #202 on: October 17, 2023, 11:31:39 AM »
No. There really were four. That's why they are called "quarter finals".
Not between 6 nations vs rugby championship sides (or tier one if you want). There were three - not two as you claimed, not four as you are now pivoting to - nope there were three - Wales vs Argentina; France vs SA; NZ vs Ireland. Last time I looked Fiji were not a nation that play in the 6 nations nor rugby championship.

"Tier 1" isn't really a formal definition.
Yes it is - it is a designation used by World Rugby, the authority that runs rugby internationally.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2023, 11:38:46 AM by ProfessorDavey »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #203 on: October 17, 2023, 11:55:27 AM »
Unsurprisingly following the weekend fixtures SA and NZ have risen to the top of the world rankings:

https://www.world.rugby/tournaments/rankings/mru

Outrider

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #204 on: October 17, 2023, 01:00:54 PM »
I think it is generally accepted that NH sides will find it that bit harder playing in the SH and vice versa, not least due to the challenges of time zones and effectively having to adjust to a completely different season (you do understand that our physiology doesn't like that!). It is pretty hard to argue that NZ, SA and Argentina were somehow advantaged by playing in France compared to France, Wales and Ireland.

I think that, given the discipline around behaviour and planning, the top tier set-ups get out and acclimatise well in advance enough to pretty much neutralise those sort of travel-related effects. As I say, the 'home field' advantage of the crowd can go either way if you don't have the experience to handle it.

Quote
But it never seems to drop the other way does it. I get it that sometimes there are slim margins, there are critical decisions and ball bounces that make the difference between winning and losing. But over time you'd expect these things to even out - sometimes the SH sides get the rub of the green sometimes the NH sides. But that isn't the case here - when push comes to shove in the world cup the SH sides come out on top - and when that happens as a continuing pattern you have to look beyond the rub of the green, the fine margins. And accept the clear conclusion - that the SH teams are just better - 8 (likely 9 in a couple of weeks) world cups to 1 tells its own story.

I don't disagree that, historically, that's been the case. The sheer numbers they've had to choose from, and the breadth of the competitive environment they play in at club level, meant that they had a consistent level of players that put them in better stead than the NH nations, and a professionalism to their approach too that was not matched. You see this world cup as a continuation of that; I'm not definitively saying that it's not, but I'm open to the possibility that we are actually on a competitive footing, and in this particular instance it was just the luck of the bounce, as it were. The only way we'll be sure of that is to watch the next few years and see if the NH sides slip back or not.

Quote
But the SH sides don't play NH sides in properly competitive fixtures except at the world cup.

Each and every time they pull on the shirt it's competitive.

Quote
The summer internationals down under and the autumn internations aren't really competitive at all - in many cases the matches are played by 'experimental' sides as teams use them as useful training exercises to blood new players, try new tactics, in a manner they'd never dream of doing in a world cup quarter final or semi final etc.

And both sides are playing around with combinations, and both sides are trying out new blood. Historically it's been more apparent from the SH sides as they've had a broader pool of viable talent to test out, but France, Ireland and to a lesser extent England have been just a wide-ranging of late. Scotland, by contrast, whilst they have a highly capable first choice selection, have a number of key positions where they don't appear to have the strength in depth coming through - they could well be on a short-term peak and returning to tier 1.5 status alongside Italy.

Quote
I must admit I find this level of hand wringing complacency rather startling if you actually want to see NH sides genuinely competing against the SH sides at the world cup. While you continue to put it down to an unfortunate bounce of the ball or 'fine margins' the SH sides will continue to dominate. Only by accepting that they are, frankly, better will the NH rugby authorities start to look at what they need to do in terms of root and branch changes to the game in the NH to make them competitive.

I don't see being open to the possibility as 'denial'. The proof will come in the next few cycles.

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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #205 on: October 17, 2023, 01:43:16 PM »
I think that, given the discipline around behaviour and planning, the top tier set-ups get out and acclimatise well in advance enough to pretty much neutralise those sort of travel-related effects. As I say, the 'home field' advantage of the crowd can go either way if you don't have the experience to handle it.
Sure teams plan and plan better the more professional they are, but that doesn't negate 'home' advantage.

I don't disagree that, historically, that's been the case. The sheer numbers they've had to choose from, and the breadth of the competitive environment they play in at club level, meant that they had a consistent level of players that put them in better stead than the NH nations, and a professionalism to their approach too that was not matched. You see this world cup as a continuation of that; I'm not definitively saying that it's not, but I'm open to the possibility that we are actually on a competitive footing, and in this particular instance it was just the luck of the bounce, as it were. The only way we'll be sure of that is to watch the next few years and see if the NH sides slip back or not.
But this is actually why the NH sides and authorities really do need to sit up and (finally) take notice.

In the run up to this world cup, all the talk was about this being the tournament where finally, after a single victory 20 years ago, NH sides would come to the fore. France and Ireland considered the best (but only from nominal ranking), the advantages of location - surely at least one would make the final, likely one would be the winner. Yet neither made it even to the semis. When push comes to shove the SH teams are stronger, more ruthless and get the job done.

So to my mind we are simply seeing the historical situation - at each world cup one or two 6 nations sides tend to be stronger than the other 4 and one or two rugby championship sides tend to be stronger than the other two - but the top SH sides consistently prove themselves stronger than the top NH sides when on the biggest stage, the world cup.

Each and every time they pull on the shirt it's competitive.
Absolute non-sense - to compare the level of competition and jeopardy of a world cup knockout stage match with an autumn international or a summer tour test match is ludicrous. Sure players and coaches want to win all matches but frankly a loss in the latter is no great shakes while a loss in the former is huge. In fact for some of these (effectively friendly) matches the key thing the coaches want is to learn about players capabilities, with the result itself secondary.

I don't see being open to the possibility as 'denial'. The proof will come in the next few cycles.
Next few cycles of world cups?

If the NH sides don't wake up and smell the coffee I'd be pretty confident we'll be having the same discussion in 2031 with the SH continue to dominate.

jeremyp

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #206 on: October 17, 2023, 02:09:27 PM »
Sure teams plan and plan better the more professional they are, but that doesn't negate 'home' advantage.
But this is actually why the NH sides and authorities really do need to sit up and (finally) take notice.

In the run up to this world cup, all the talk was about this being the tournament where finally, after a single victory 20 years ago, NH sides would come to the fore. France and Ireland considered the best (but only from nominal ranking), the advantages of location - surely at least one would make the final, likely one would be the winner. Yet neither made it even to the semis. When push comes to shove the SH teams are stronger, more ruthless and get the job done.

So to my mind we are simply seeing the historical situation - at each world cup one or two 6 nations sides tend to be stronger than the other 4 and one or two rugby championship sides tend to be stronger than the other two - but the top SH sides consistently prove themselves stronger than the top NH sides when on the biggest stage, the world cup.
Absolute non-sense - to compare the level of competition and jeopardy of a world cup knockout stage match with an autumn international or a summer tour test match is ludicrous. Sure players and coaches want to win all matches but frankly a loss in the latter is no great shakes while a loss in the former is huge. In fact for some of these (effectively friendly) matches the key thing the coaches want is to learn about players capabilities, with the result itself secondary.
Next few cycles of world cups?

If the NH sides don't wake up and smell the coffee I'd be pretty confident we'll be having the same discussion in 2031 with the SH continue to dominate.

Any luck in calculating the statistical significance of 2/3/4 matches?
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #207 on: October 17, 2023, 03:07:38 PM »
Any luck in calculating the statistical significance of 2/3/4 matches?n
Given that it is only you that seems obsessed with statistical significance on the basis of just a couple of matches I'll leave that one to you.

But considering the world cup winners over the past 9 tournaments, and using a null hypothesis that NH and SH teams are equally good and therefore equally likely to win the tournament, the observed results of SH:NH of 8:1, compares to an expected of 4.5:4.5 and using the chi squared test, results in a p value of 0.0196 which is highly significant.

If we predict the 2023 tournament to be a SH victory (as most people seem to think) then p value becomes even more significant at 0.0114.

If England win the tournament then we just drop out of the 5% statistical significance.

Using chi squared again the p value for 6 nations (9 wins) vs rugby championship (27 wins) match ups in the knock out stages is even more significant at p = 0.0027
« Last Edit: October 17, 2023, 03:26:00 PM by ProfessorDavey »

SqueakyVoice

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #208 on: October 17, 2023, 04:32:39 PM »
I think that is a little bit unfair. He was a good fly half in 2019.
https://www.englandrugby.com/news/article/rugby-world-cup-england-team-to-play-new-zealand-in-semi-final
 So good, they moved him to inside centre.
Quote
Captain Owen Farrell is named at inside centre with George Ford selected at fly half and Manu Tuilagi at outside centre
I remember the result, but I can't  remember  if Eddie Jones ' instructions were, "Remember  you're in a team. And throw the ball to Tuilagi."

SqueakyVoice

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #209 on: October 17, 2023, 07:46:49 PM »
The other test I remember  was v Wales at home back in 2015.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/34350871
England needed to draw to qualify and there was a late penalty on the right side that would (have) levelled the scores. George Ford and Farrell  both looked at it and neither fancied it, so it ended up with a line out.  Which they promptly lost.

Wilkinson, at the time said the decision to take a line out should have been planned for "something" and the short line out was too obvious (& defendable) for the Welsh. It's arguable that Stuart Lancaster and Chris Robshaw had lots of time to prepare for a situation like that, but they didn't  seem to.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/34370727
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Wales coach Warren Gatland said England made a mistake by not going for a late penalty kick that could have drawn ...
 "It's a big call to make and a brave call to make."
Farrell wasn't  brave enough to make that decision.

So from that day to this, I've only ever regarded him playing as a bellweather, not a leader.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #210 on: October 17, 2023, 07:50:51 PM »
The other test I remember  was v Wales at home back in 2015.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/34350871
England needed to draw to qualify and there was a late penalty on the right side that would (have) levelled the scores. George Ford and Farrell  both looked at it and neither fancied it, so it ended up with a line out.  Which they promptly lost.
Yes I remember that one as well.

It was frankly a dumb decision, but it is one of my bugbears when teams fail to take easy penalty points and feel they need to go for the 'crowd pleasing' kick to touch to attempt to get a try ... which very often results in zero points.

We've seen a fair few examples in this world cup so I don't think it is something that can be laid on England, let alone Farrell, alone.

jeremyp

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #211 on: October 18, 2023, 07:49:57 AM »
Given that it is only you that seems obsessed with statistical significance on the basis of just a couple of matches I'll leave that one to you.

But considering the world cup winners over the past 9 tournaments, and using a null hypothesis that NH and SH teams are equally good and therefore equally likely to win the tournament, the observed results of SH:NH of 8:1, compares to an expected of 4.5:4.5 and using the chi squared test, results in a p value of 0.0196 which is highly significant.

If we predict the 2023 tournament to be a SH victory (as most people seem to think) then p value becomes even more significant at 0.0114.

If England win the tournament then we just drop out of the 5% statistical significance.

Using chi squared again the p value for 6 nations (9 wins) vs rugby championship (27 wins) match ups in the knock out stages is even more significant at p = 0.0027
The point is that you are making a thesis based on two matches that were very close. You don’t seem to understand that those two matches alone are not enough evidence. This is remarkable for somebody who claims to be a scientist. 

The historical matches don’t count because we all agree that the SH sides were better back then. The question is have the NH sides caught up.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #212 on: October 18, 2023, 10:20:12 AM »
The point is that you are making a thesis based on two matches that were very close. You don’t seem to understand that those two matches alone are not enough evidence. This is remarkable for somebody who claims to be a scientist.
Yawn - three matches.

The historical matches don’t count because we all agree that the SH sides were better back then.
If you use that argument you'll never be able to draw any conclusions as you'll always be ignoring everything except the most recent match, and that won't be sufficient to draw statistic conclusions, albeit it will tell you who actually won that match.

The question is have the NH sides caught up.
It would appear not, because had the 6 nations sides have caught up surely you would expect at least one of those matches to result in a 6 nations team beating a rugby championship side. Particularly the other advantages for the 6 nations sides in terms of nominal ranking, home or close to home advantage and in two cases playing a part of the match (or even a quarter of the match) with a player advantage.

Oh and if you do want to go all 'statistical' - if you start with a hypothesis that the 6 nations sides have caught up with the rugby championship - in other words equal likelihood of winning, then chi square suggests from just those 3 results that there is a 92% likelihood that your hypothesis is wrong.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2023, 10:38:38 AM by ProfessorDavey »

jeremyp

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #213 on: October 18, 2023, 01:07:40 PM »
Yawn - three matches.
If you use that argument you'll never be able to draw any conclusions as you'll always be ignoring everything except the most recent match, and that won't be sufficient to draw statistic conclusions, albeit it will tell you who actually won that match.
It would appear not, because had the 6 nations sides have caught up surely you would expect at least one of those matches to result in a 6 nations team beating a rugby championship side. Particularly the other advantages for the 6 nations sides in terms of nominal ranking, home or close to home advantage and in two cases playing a part of the match (or even a quarter of the match) with a player advantage.

Oh and if you do want to go all 'statistical' - if you start with a hypothesis that the 6 nations sides have caught up with the rugby championship - in other words equal likelihood of winning, then chi square suggests from just those 3 results that there is a 92% likelihood that your hypothesis is wrong.

If you want to find out how NH sides are doing against SH sides now, you look at recent matches, not ones from four years ago.

The SH sides in the three matches that you are obsessed by all suffered recent defeats from NH sides. Oops. You might need to think again.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #214 on: October 18, 2023, 03:55:57 PM »
If you want to find out how NH sides are doing against SH sides now, you look at recent matches, not ones from four years ago.
Oh you mean the three knockout stage matches last weekend in which nominally higher ranked 6 nations teams came up against nominally lower ranked rugby championship teams and the SH teams won all three.

Not really helping your argument, are you.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #215 on: October 18, 2023, 04:27:23 PM »
The SH sides in the three matches that you are obsessed by all suffered recent defeats from NH sides. Oops. You might need to think again.
In matches that actually matter or make a difference - I don't think so.

Sure NZ lost to France in the group stage and SA lost to Ireland also in the group stage. But those matches were basically irrelevant as the only thing that mattered was finishing first or second in the group, which they did. But fat lot of good it did Ireland and France as they are out of the tournament while NZ and SA are sailing on into the semis, and perhaps beyond.

Autumn and summer internationals have about as much relevance as the England vs Australia football match I went to last Friday. A bit of fun, useful to check out new players/tactics, but nothing you'd worry about losing.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2023, 04:33:39 PM by ProfessorDavey »

jeremyp

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #216 on: October 19, 2023, 07:30:52 AM »
Oh you mean the three knockout stage matches last weekend in which nominally higher ranked 6 nations teams came up against nominally lower ranked rugby championship teams and the SH teams won all three.

Not really helping your argument, are you.
Why not the group matches as well?



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jeremyp

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #217 on: October 19, 2023, 07:33:06 AM »
In matches that actually matter or make a difference - I don't think so.

Sure NZ lost to France in the group stage and SA lost to Ireland also in the group stage. But those matches were basically irrelevant as the only thing that mattered was finishing first or second in the group, which they did. But fat lot of good it did Ireland and France as they are out of the tournament while NZ and SA are sailing on into the semis, and perhaps beyond.

Autumn and summer internationals have about as much relevance as the England vs Australia football match I went to last Friday. A bit of fun, useful to check out new players/tactics, but nothing you'd worry about losing.
The group stage matches were not irrelevant. They determined who came top and second which determines who you play in the QF.

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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #218 on: October 20, 2023, 11:44:44 AM »
The group stage matches were not irrelevant.
They were, as Argentina, SA and NZ all lost a group match against a 6 nations team, but all three not only made it to the quarter finals, but are now still in the competition in the semis, unlike Wales, Ireland and France who avoided defeat in the group stage. Throughout the history of the world cup (as far as I can see) no team that has lost just a single game in the group stage has failed to qualify for the knock-outs, so losing a single game is largely irrelevant - what you cannot afford to do is lose two games.

They determined who came top and second which determines who you play in the QF.
Which has no real bearing unless you are confident you'll be playing a much weaker side in the quarter finals - and this doesn't seem to be the case here. SA and Ireland knew they play one of France or NZ in the quarters and vice versa. I can't see how they'd be particularly wanting one rather than the other opponent in the quarters. Wales perhaps felt that winning the group would result in an easy quarter final draw against Argentina - fat lot of good that did them.

We have four teams left, three lost a group match and finished second in their groups, just one is an unbeaten group winner (England). The three other group winners (all unbeaten at group stage) are out.

And unless England win, for the second world cup in a row we will see a tournament winner that came second in the group stage having lost a match. But I suspect there aren't many people who will remember that SA got trounced 23-13 in their opening game against NZ. And nor should they, as that result was irrelevant and SA went on to win the tournament, while NZ made the semis only.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2023, 11:51:17 AM by ProfessorDavey »

Nearly Sane

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #219 on: October 21, 2023, 12:20:25 PM »
Was utterly shocked by last night's result

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/67177704

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #220 on: October 21, 2023, 05:35:26 PM »
Was utterly shocked by last night's result

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/67177704
Bit fearful that tonight’s result might be similar!

jeremyp

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #221 on: October 21, 2023, 05:41:07 PM »
They were, as Argentina, SA and NZ all lost a group match against a 6 nations team, but all three not only made it to the quarter finals,
Don't talk absolute crap.

You're saying that those sides went into the group matches against England, Ireland and France respectively saying "these don't matter because we'll be in a QF that we will win". You can't say "this match doesn't count because it didn't matter in the end". The players didn't know that at the time.

This really is the end of the conversation. You must be trying to yank our chains.
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jeremyp

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #222 on: October 21, 2023, 05:42:03 PM »
Was utterly shocked by last night's result

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/67177704

Why? Did you think Argentina might win?
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Nearly Sane

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #223 on: October 21, 2023, 05:58:09 PM »
Why? Did you think Argentina might win?
Absolutely! 1000%!

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Re: Men's Rugby Union World Cup 2023
« Reply #224 on: October 21, 2023, 06:03:05 PM »
Absolutely! 1000%!

Fancy a bet? £10 says South Africa beat England tonight.
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