Author Topic: Growth in Church attendance  (Read 258 times)


ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17984
Re: Growth in Church attendance
« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2025, 09:23:31 AM »
https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2025/11-april/news/uk/dramatic-growth-in-young-people-attending-church-bible-society-research-finds
Never rely on self-reporting for church attendance. Why? Well because people exaggerate. We've seen this in many previous survey and we have it again here.

Why do we know that people exaggerate - well because many demoninations measure actual attendance - surveying the actual number of people attending church and this is always much lower than the numbers that claim to attend church.

So this survey can be compared with actual attendance measured by the CofE and RCC on the basis of actual people attending church.

So for CofE - the survey claims that 32% of 5.8million people attend CofE services at least monthly - that's effectively 2 million people. How does that compare with the real numbers. Well the CofE Statistics for Mission measures actual attendance every year with current average weekly attendance being just 700,000 and they also assess exactly the same attendance (at least monthly) as the survey, their so-called, 'Worshiping Community' - and that is just over 1million (and that includes on-line). So the survey over-estimates attendance by 2:1 compared to actual attendance.

https://www.churchofengland.org/sites/default/files/2024-12/statisticsformission2023.pdf

And on RCC - the survey claims an astonishing increase over the 6 year period between their surveys - from about 850k to over 1.8million - so a 118% increase. Very impressive if true ... but it isn't. The RCCs own measure of real attendance shows that over the past 6 years attendance has actually dropped from 700k to 550k, a reduction of about 20%.

https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/big-increase-in-mass-attendance-recorded-in-britain/

So the survey is complete junk in terms of actually assessing church attendance. Bottom line - if you want attendance figures you need to measure real people actually attending, not rely on self reporting.

There is an interesting point I guess - which is why people so massively exaggerate their church attendance in surveys.

Walt Zingmatilder

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 33824
Re: Growth in Church attendance
« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2025, 11:19:22 AM »
Never rely on self-reporting for church attendance. Why? Well because people exaggerate. We've seen this in many previous survey and we have it again here.

Why do we know that people exaggerate - well because many demoninations measure actual attendance - surveying the actual number of people attending church and this is always much lower than the numbers that claim to attend church.

So this survey can be compared with actual attendance measured by the CofE and RCC on the basis of actual people attending church.

So for CofE - the survey claims that 32% of 5.8million people attend CofE services at least monthly - that's effectively 2 million people. How does that compare with the real numbers. Well the CofE Statistics for Mission measures actual attendance every year with current average weekly attendance being just 700,000 and they also assess exactly the same attendance (at least monthly) as the survey, their so-called, 'Worshiping Community' - and that is just over 1million (and that includes on-line). So the survey over-estimates attendance by 2:1 compared to actual attendance.

https://www.churchofengland.org/sites/default/files/2024-12/statisticsformission2023.pdf

And on RCC - the survey claims an astonishing increase over the 6 year period between their surveys - from about 850k to over 1.8million - so a 118% increase. Very impressive if true ... but it isn't. The RCCs own measure of real attendance shows that over the past 6 years attendance has actually dropped from 700k to 550k, a reduction of about 20%.

https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/big-increase-in-mass-attendance-recorded-in-britain/

So the survey is complete junk in terms of actually assessing church attendance. Bottom line - if you want attendance figures you need to measure real people actually attending, not rely on self reporting.

There is an interesting point I guess - which is why people so massively exaggerate their church attendance in surveys.
I would have thought you have to darken church doors in order to monitor church attendance.
It might be useful for you to outline a more reliable way of doing it. If what you say is correct I would imagine Churches would never report a decline in numbers.


ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17984
Re: Growth in Church attendance
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2025, 11:36:42 AM »
I would have thought you have to darken church doors in order to monitor church attendance.
It might be useful for you to outline a more reliable way of doing it. If what you say is correct I would imagine Churches would never report a decline in numbers.
These numbers are measured by the churches themselves - based on actually counting up the numbers of people attending. And yes they would report a decline in numbers if that's what the data show, as this is about accurate reporting for planning purposes and governance. It isn't about some kind of PR exercise.

So the CofE and RCC do this routinely (and both have reported year on year declines in attendance for a long while). The only 'blips' were for RCC shortly after 2005 when there was a major influx of Polish people (and even then numbers stabilised rather than went up). And of course in the aftermath of COVID when numbers (necessarily) plummeted. But actually the longer term trend of declining attendance is still there, with neither CoE nor RCC attaining pre-COVID attendance numbers in their most recent data.

Walt Zingmatilder

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 33824
Re: Growth in Church attendance
« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2025, 11:48:36 AM »
These numbers are measured by the churches themselves - based on actually counting up the numbers of people attending. And yes they would report a decline in numbers if that's what the data show, as this is about accurate reporting for planning purposes and governance. It isn't about some kind of PR exercise.

So the CofE and RCC do this routinely (and both have reported year on year declines in attendance for a long while). The only 'blips' were for RCC shortly after 2005 when there was a major influx of Polish people (and even then numbers stabilised rather than went up). And of course in the aftermath of COVID when numbers (necessarily) plummeted. But actually the longer term trend of declining attendance is still there, with neither CoE nor RCC attaining pre-COVID attendance numbers in their most recent data.
Sorry but this post doesn’t seem to follow on from your charge that the churches exaggerate their figures.
I asked you to outline an acceptable way of monitoring Church attendance. Does it involve professed Atheists with clipboards to guarantee fairness and eliminate bias.

ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17984
Re: Growth in Church attendance
« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2025, 12:01:48 PM »
Sorry but this post doesn’t seem to follow on from your charge that the churches exaggerate their figures.
Where did I ever say that churches exaggerate their figures - I didn't. What I said was that when you ask people to self-report whether or not they attend church, such as in the survey you linked to in the OP, then you get a significant overestimation of attendance compared to actually measuring real bums on real pews (so to speak). I'm actually saying that the attendance reported by the churches is likely to be pretty accurate.

We see this here with CofE attendance exaggerated by about 100% in the survey compared to actually measuring attendance. Similar for RCC and this is what we see time after time when comparing self-reporting of attendance with actually measuring real attendance. So about twice as many people claim to be in church than actually are in church.

I asked you to outline an acceptable way of monitoring Church attendance. Does it involve professed Atheists with clipboards to guarantee fairness and eliminate bias.
How the CofE and RCC do this seems to be a sensible and accurate approach, which is using a census approach in all their churches at a particular time of year (usually a 'normal' set of weeks - often October and measuring numbers that attend as special festivals, typically Christmas and Easter).

Seems to work fine, provided that the organisation running the census (in this case the churches themselves) are interested in accuracy and consistency of approach (which seems to be the case). It is pretty common for all sorts of organisations to measure 'footfall' for the purposes of planning and governance.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2025, 01:08:54 PM by ProfessorDavey »

Walt Zingmatilder

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 33824
Re: Growth in Church attendance
« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2025, 04:20:30 PM »
This sounds interesting
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002b6rn

Giles Fraser in the Chair
Representing the “Oi, religious nutter, yes you” wing of humanism is
Katherine Smurthwaite
And also,
Michael Rosen
Giles Coren
Justin Brierley

Steve H

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11076
  • God? She's black.
Re: Growth in Church attendance
« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2025, 04:29:15 PM »
So what? Is truth decided by popular vote?
"That bloke over there, out of Ultravox, is really childish."
"Him? Midge Ure?"
"Yes, very."

Maeght

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5839
Re: Growth in Church attendance
« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2025, 04:36:41 PM »
Heard this mentioned on 'Beyond Belief' on Radio 4 today along with the comment that young people are looking for meaning that they don't find in secular humanism. Then came the comment 'they need to hear more about socialism' (or similar).

Walt Zingmatilder

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 33824
Re: Growth in Church attendance
« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2025, 04:41:09 PM »
Heard this mentioned on 'Beyond Belief' on Radio 4 today along with the comment that young people are looking for meaning that they don't find in secular humanism. Then came the comment 'they need to hear more about socialism' (or similar).
Yes that was Smurthwaites comment which she injected as a “last word” since it was too late for public examination. Smurthwaite is apparently a former investment banker.

ProfessorDavey

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17984
Re: Growth in Church attendance
« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2025, 04:45:16 PM »
So what? Is truth decided by popular vote?
No it isn't - but numbers of adherents and whether the number is increasing or decreasing is used as an argument to determine the influence religion has in public life and public policy.

And as a researcher I get really frustrated by cherry picking of some random survey to make a predetermined point regardless of whether the survey is robust or (as in this case) clearly ludicrous in suggesting that nearly 20% of the population go to church at least once a month. Not even close.

But I come back to the point I made earlier - it has been demonstrated time after time that people claim they go to church far more than they actually do (when your measure real people ... err ... actually attending church). Why is this.

Walt Zingmatilder

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 33824
Re: Growth in Church attendance
« Reply #11 on: April 23, 2025, 09:25:46 AM »
Heard this mentioned on 'Beyond Belief' on Radio 4 today along with the comment that young people are looking for meaning that they don't find in secular humanism. Then came the comment 'they need to hear more about socialism' (or similar).
If Smurthwaite said it I think she would mean socialism to be something that was Secular, Humanist and antireligious.