Earlier I wondered about the likelihood of players retiring next year who might be waiting to play in the Olympics, or have other reasons for staying on till then. This post looks at those who I think might be going.
Federer is the most obvious one - he'll be 39, even with a lighter schedule it's going to be tough to avoid injuries such as the one that may have affected him against Dimitrov. I don't see him just retiring at the end of this season because I think he will feel he would owe the crowds a chance to say goodbye AND I think he hankers for the Gold Medal in the singles at the Olympics to put him alongside Nadal, and Agassi as having achieved a Golden Slam in the mens. He's also close to passing Connors's record for the most tour wins in the Open era for men, but he won't achieve that this year. I think he'd like to get more Slams to avoid being caught or passed by Nadal or Djokovic but that's looking less and less likely.
Nadal - it's such a a physical game for him that I can't see him lasting as long as Federer and yet good chance that he will win his second slam this year. That would put him on 19 to Federer's 20. Obviously if fit he will be favourite for the French, and if he could get to 21 maybe he will see that as enough. I do wonder how much he would like to win the Year End tournament as it's the one major blemish on his record. What Nadal needs though to get to the records he might want is such a successful season that it would be odd to retire - so more likely a bad season, or one featuring injury would lead to him retiring.
Djokovic - in comparison to Federer isn't old but in comparison to what was the norm 10 years ago, pretty ancient. He's had a great season but the retiral due to injury makes one wonder if he can and will want to continue if anything similar happens next year. Again he would be in line for a Golden Slam so likely to stay for that.
Murray - depends a lot on how the next few tournaments go. I suspect he will be thinking of at least playing the Slams even if he decides that he is going to retire and he has the possibility of winning 3 successive Olympic titles - which would be a record that I suspect would last for some time.
TBC