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Can see Scotland getting knocked out in the group stage.
As if there wasn't enough sporting excitement this year, the RWC is about to kick off.We've had the first warm up games. As any Welshman or New Zealander will tell you, they don't mean much, but apparently Wales trained too hard, so they were a bit puffed out.
I don't think so - their group is pretty weak so I think they will be OK at the group stage.
Likely loss to Ireland. And quite possible loss against the hosts in what looks like being a qualifier for the quarters in the last of all the group matches. Scotland not known as the best travellers.
Plausible, but not likely in my view - I think Scotland will be strong enough to beat Japan. And don't forget that Scotland vs Ireland is the opening game for both sides so anything could happen.
I think the odds are about 80/20 for an Irish win, and about 60/40 for a Scottish win against Japan. I haven't said that it is likely that they will go out just that it seems eminently possible.
The odds concur entirely with my opinion that it is 'plausible, but not likely' that Japan will beat Scotland. And with odds of 60/40 then the betting market also agrees with my view that Scotland will be strong enough to beat Japan.
You seem to be arguing about something not said.
Quite the contrary - your posts imply that you disagree with me and that the betting odds are on your side. They aren't - they concur with my view that Scotland losing to Japan (and going out at the group stage) is plausible but not likely. You seem much more negative about their chances with your opening opinion that you '[c]an see Scotland getting knocked out in the group stage'. While it is plausible neither I nor the betting markets think it likely.
No, you are misreading my posts - I'm the one who said 60/40 in favour of Scotland and I haven't said anything about it being likely that they will. My opening comment is about it being a perfectly plausible scenario, and one that isn't very low odds. And any original miscomprehension you had should have been addressed by my other posts but you seem to have misread something, got it fixed in your head, and been unable to adjust with further information. We all do it.
Whatever - I guess you have the classic negative worry of a fan of a side rather than the more dispassionate objectively of the neutral.That said I think it would be good for the tournament if Japan progressed, not least because this is the first time the world cup has been held outside the normal major rugby playing countries. Also it is incredibly rare for a team outside of the 'big 9' rugby playing elite to progress to the knock-out stages (I think it has only happened 3 times from memory) and for rugby to progress as a sport we need to shake up the rather boring dominance, first of the big 9 and then of the big 3 SH sides.
I agree that it would be good for Japan to get through, and even if it was at the cost of a quarter final place for Scotland, I would happily cheer them on.
No, it's just that you misread my comment, and then having become invested in that couldn't adjust, and now have decided to continue with your error because you don't want to lose face having had the error pointed out.
Or at the expense of Ireland
What error?'Can see Scotland getting knocked out in the group stage.''Likely loss to Ireland. And quite possible loss against the hosts in what looks like being a qualifier for the quarters in the last of all the group matches. Scotland not known as the best travellers.'Are not comments that can reasonably be interpreted as anything other than you thinking Scotland going out at the group stages is a likely outcome, despite your later denial. I did not misinterpret what you wrote regardless of whether that is what you actually meant.
You can interpret them how you like but I notice that you don't put in anything about my actual calling of the odds here - that's an interesting omission in terms of the information you had to hand.
Eh - once you quoted the odds (not sure whether they are correct or not) I commented that they were consistent with my view. Not sure why you quoted the odds in a reply to my post implying that your earlier comments were overly negative on Scotland's chances unless you thought somehow that they backed up your view; 'quite possible loss against the hosts in what looks like being a qualifier for the quarters in the last of all the group matches. Scotland not known as the best travellers.' - which they don't - a 60% odds of a Scottish win isn't consistent with a 'quite possible loss'. The betting odds aren't consistent with your earlier comments - maybe you thought they were, but they aren't. Seems you are twisting things to imply you've been consistent all along, while you haven't been.My only opinion in the matter is that Scotland losing to Japan and going out at the group stage is plausible but not likely. Are you saying I am wrong in that view?
Can you point out where I said it was likely - i.e. the interpretation you decided. I quoted my estimate of the odds to be clear what I thought the odds were but you having misread my original comments as implying something they didn't say, just continued to argue with the strawman you had created. I understand that it's often hard to deal with making an error and that when new information comes along that it's hard to read it clearly. There are indeed lots of studies on the phenomenon. You just happen to be today's example of it on the board.
Can you answer my question please. Namely:My only opinion in the matter is that Scotland losing to Japan and going out at the group stage is plausible but not likely. Are you saying I am wrong in that view?
My posts have already answered this even to the extent of giving odds' long prior to your question. it's just your inability to admit your error that is leading you to pursue this approach because you are fixated on your misreading. I quite understand that you are struggling to accept your error. As I've said it happens to us all.
Can you please answer a direct question with a direct answer - simply yes/no is all that is required. Do you think I am wrong in suggesting that Scotland losing to Japan and going out at the group stage is plausible but not likely?
I think the odds are about 80/20 for an Irish win, and about 60/40 for a Scottish win against Japan.
