True.
So overthinking this could end up with neither Germany or Spain or Argentina in the half of the draw which would include group B top side.
And you are right - if England are to really progress at some point they are going to need to play a top side. If the height of ambition is quarter final I can see how you get their fortuitously with everything working in your favour. That isn't the case if the height of ambition if winner/finalist - if that's the case you'll have to play and presumably beat a top side somewhere along the line.
Yes. The
ambition as beaten finalists in the Euros and beaten semi-finalists at the last World Cup must be to win. Being concerned that we might meet a strong team at an earlier stage of the knock-out is an admission that we do not have the quality and that the objective is to go as far as possible just to look good. We just need to aim to win all our matches. That simplifies everything.
On a slightly different note, I'm listening to the Rest is History podcasts about the World Cup. They've got as far as 1950, which is the first one in which England was involved. We got knocked out in the second round by the USA. Allegedly, they had one shot on goal and we hit the woodwork 11 times. The loss, which was considered the biggest upset ever at the time, was reported everywhere except in the USA and the UK. It wasn't reported in the USA because nobody cared about football there and it wasn't reported in Britain because it coincided with England's first ever loss in a test match to the West Indies.
