Ken Livingstone

[BashfulAnthony]

It's a very debatable choice for the role he has been assigned.  Is it another classic error of judgement, especially when you listen to his handling of callers on the radio show he was on this morning.

[Nearly Sane]

It's a very strange role. I think it should simply have been Maria Eagle, but Ken was always going to be dodgy and with his idiotic remarks about Kevan Jones, he has scuttled himself

[ad_orientem]

Eh? What's all this about? A link?

[Nearly Sane]

Eh? What's all this about? A link?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34853430

[BashfulAnthony]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34853430

His original comments were bad enough, but his attitude, when pressed to say he was sorry, was abominable.  He says sorry now, but only after Corbyn's insistence:  how sincere is that!  Not many new appointees make such blunders before they'v even started the job!

[Nearly Sane]

Be interesting what happens in and after the Oldham by election

[BashfulAnthony]

Be interesting what happens in and after the Oldham by election

Though, of course, bye-elections are notoriously quirky. 

[Nearly Sane]

Not sure quirky is the right word, but I take your point. That said this should be an easy Labour Hold, and much of the polling so far seems to back that up. However, I've been seeing some murmurings from some psepholigists that it may be a lot closer than expected. If it is then the main change, other than the loss of a long term MP in Michael Meacher,  is Corbyn's leadership and those Labour MPs currently using their electric knifesharpeners will be all Ides of March on his ass in an instant.

[BashfulAnthony]

Not sure quirky is the right word, but I take your point. That said this should be an easy Labour Hold, and much of the polling so far seems to back that up. However, I've been seeing some murmurings from some psepholigists that it may be a lot closer than expected. If it is then the main change, other than the loss of a long term MP in Michael Meacher,  is Corbyn's leadership and those Labour MPs currently using their electric knifesharpeners will be all Ides of March on his ass in an instant.

And don't forget UKIP and the migrant crisis.

[Nearly Sane]

If UKIP do well then it can be written off as 'quirky', if the Tories do well, then I suspect Corbyn will be done before the Ides of March, though there might be a possibility that they stay with him.till after the Scottish elections.

[BashfulAnthony]

If UKIP do well then it can be written off as 'quirky', if the Tories do well, then I suspect Corbyn will be done before the Ides of March, though there might be a possibility that they stay with him.till after the Scottish elections.

Anything can happen, I suppose, but I'll be very surprised if the Tories get any cheer;  I have a feeling UKIP will do well;  and just wonder if the Corbyn bubble will show any sign of bursting?

[Nearly Sane]

Anything can happen, I suppose, but I'll be very surprised if the Tories get any cheer;  I have a feeling UKIP will do well;  and just wonder if the Corbyn bubble will show any sign of bursting?

Not sure there is any such thing as a Corbyn bubble, the polls since his election have been much the same as the election result.

As covered, if UKIP do well, then it can be written off as a protest vote. If the Tories do well, then it will look like Corbyn will have no chance at the next election (which he doesn't nor does any other Labour member), unless the Tories do something very mad.

[BashfulAnthony]

Not sure there is any such thing as a Corbyn bubble, the polls since his election have been much the same as the election result.

As covered, if UKIP do well, then it can be written off as a protest vote. If the Tories do well, then it will look like Corbyn will have no chance at the next election (which he doesn't nor does any other Labour member), unless the Tories do something very mad.

Well, perhaps not bubble, but popularity:  was it just a flash in the pan?

[Nearly Sane]

Well, perhaps not bubble, but popularity:  was it just a flash in the pan?

His popularity is in those who had votes in the Labour Leadership election. That may or may not transpose to the general electorate.

[BashfulAnthony]

His popularity is in those who had votes in the Labour Leadership election. That may or may not transpose to the general electorate.

You're right.  I think we may see a more realistic picture of how he is viewed.

[Nearly Sane]

You're right.  I think we may see a more realistic picture of how he is viewed.

Both of the views are real, they are just different groups. It isn't clear that any vote in Oldham is a referendum by that electorate on Corbyn as leader.

[BashfulAnthony]

Both of the views are real, they are just different groups. It isn't clear that any vote in Oldham is a referendum by that electorate on Corbyn as leader.

As yet it remains to be seen how the candidates will present their positions, and how Corbyn will figure in them.

[Nearly Sane]

As yet it remains to be seen how the candidates will present their positions, and how Corbyn will figure in them.

It's already going on, but I think there is too much happening to see this as about Corbyn. Undoubtedly if it is closer than currently expected and we have to think that the loss of a personal vote for Meacher will have an effect, then some will try and make it about Corbyn, probably by those in the Labour Party wh want to get rid of him. But a Tory success will have much more impact there.

[BashfulAnthony]

It's already going on, but I think there is too much happening to see this as about Corbyn. Undoubtedly if it is closer than currently expected and we have to think that the loss of a personal vote for Meacher will have an effect, then some will try and make it about Corbyn, probably by those in the Labour Party wh want to get rid of him. But a Tory success will have much more impact there.

I think the Tax Credit issue will hit the Tories hard; and I hope it does.

[Nearly Sane]

I think the Tax Credit issue will hit the Tories hard; and I hope it does.

It may do, and was discussing what will impact on a Corbyn leadership. It would see that voting UKIP as a protest against Tory cuts on.Tax Credit is a bit odd, but then illustrates why we cannot take the result of the by election as being about single issues

[Hope]

Anything can happen, I suppose, but I'll be very surprised if the Tories get any cheer;  I have a feeling UKIP will do well;  and just wonder if the Corbyn bubble will show any sign of bursting?

Not surte what the Tory's proportion of the vote at the General Election was, but all they need is to see a rise in that figure - even if they are left back in third place - to feel cheerful in a such a staunch Labour seat.

[BashfulAnthony]

Not surte what the Tory's proportion of the vote at the General Election was, but all they need is to see a rise in that figure - even if they are left back in third place - to feel cheerful in a such a staunch Labour seat.

I'll be very surprised if the Tory vote goes up  -  bye-elections almost always give the incumbent Party a hiding.

[Hope]

I'll be very surprised if the Tory vote goes up  -  bye-elections almost always give the incumbent Party a hiding.

I agree, but I'm not sure that this could be deemed to be a bog-standard by-election, BA: the political context of it is not usual.

[BashfulAnthony]

I agree, but I'm not sure that this could be deemed to be a bog-standard by-election, BA: the political context of it is not usual.

You're right; but anyone who votes Tory after the Tax Credit in particular, has to be a real dyed-in-the-wool Tory, or politically inept.

[Shaker]

You're right; but anyone who votes Tory after the Tax Credit in particular, has to be a real dyed-in-the-wool Tory, or politically inept.

You say that as though there's a difference, Bashers