What if?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Thought an alternative history thread might be a bit of fun and useful to take the heat out of the politics board as well as offering alternative worlds where normality was the norm rather than the real dystopia we find ourselves in.
We could do

What if John Major had won in 1997
What if Wizard of Oz had been filmed as a cartoon
What if Reg Varney had landed the part of James Bond
What if the world was flat etc.

To kick off what if Gordon Brown had called that election in 2007?
David Cameron would be out of a job
Theresa May beats George Osborne in a leadership contest
Theresa May narrowly defeats AlanJohnson in 2012 election but her poll plummets after awkward
Performance in TV debate.
May refuses referendum in Scotland
Introduces austerity in U.K.
Growth of UKIP
2017 election May narrowly defeats Labour in coalition with UKIPS two MPs with promise of referendum on Europe.Last Tory MP dismissed from Scotland.

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting idea, Vlad. I'm your scenario above I don't see Cameron as going. He would only have been in the job around 18 months, and even gaining a few seats would have easily saved him. I think he stays to the election in 2012. Brown goes around  Sep 2011 as he isn't popular enough and to give the new leader time to bed in. David Milliband wins with the support of his brother Ed, whom he makes Home Secretary bringing comparisons of the Kennedys.

The Tories launch a manifesto that moves them further right economically , as in the 2 years between 2010 and 2012, Chancellor Balls has instituted a move to bring down the deficit.

The Lib Dems under Vince Clegg move to the left of Labour and declare that they will not enter a coalition with either party but will provide support on supply and demand basis.


Labour lose 50 seats leaving them and the Tories almost even. The Queen is advised to ask David Milliband to form the Govt. He does and with a supply and demand support last two years but eventually on an attempt to raise student fees, the govt falls.


(I'll add the next stage later)

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Sane. Great stuff. Can't wait for the next instalment.
I had Cameron falling on his sword because that seemed to be the done thing up until Jezzer in 2016/2017.

[jeremyp]

Sane. Great stuff. Can't wait for the next instalment.
I had Cameron falling on his sword because that seemed to be the done thing up until Jezzer in 2016/2017.

Michael Howard fell on his sword because he promised that he would if the Tories didn't win and he thought he would be too old by 2010.

Anyway, I think an easier what if is David Miliband winning the Labour election in 2010. Labour would then have won in 2015 and still be in power now.

An interesting what if would be John Smith not having a heart attack. World history would be very different. I don't think he would have followed GW Bush into Iraq and the traditional centre left Labour would not have lost the confidence of the electorate. We may not have seen another Tory government until now.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Anyway, I think an easier what if is David Miliband winning the Labour election in 2010. Labour would then have won in 2015 and still be in power now.

What stage or year would it have become obvious that the game was up for the coalition?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Former Archbishop to debate with Atheist Sam Harris

Former Archbishop of Canterbury Richard Dawkins is to debate the existence of God with visiting American atheist Sam Harris. The cleric who was Archbishop from 2002 said ‘’I’m looking forward to debating with the doctor and it will be interesting to see whether the fact that I frequently appear on platforms opposing creationists and fundamentalists will seriously disarm Dr Harris’ argument.
Reverend Dawkins continued  ‘’I was a keen atheist in my teens and have a bit of an inside track on this’’.

[Steve H]

Reverend MISTER Dawkins!

[Walt Zingmatilder]

What if Thatcher had stayed on in 1990?
Tory majority slashed in 1992
Neil Kinnock replaced by John Smith due to missing open goal.
Ken Clarke wins tory leadership contest in 1994, Thatcher ousted
Tony Blair becomes Prime Minister in 1997
Gordon Brown becomes Prime minister in 2007
David Cameron in coalition with Lib Dems
Overall conservative majority in 2015, E Miliband replaced by Andrew Burnham
2018 David Cameron stands down. Boris Johnson beats George Osborne to Premiership
due to Osborne's failures and Johnson's promise of a referendum on EU membership.

[jeremyp]

What stage or year would it have become obvious that the game was up for the coalition?

They would have completed their term and Labour would have won a majority in 2015.

[jeremyp]

What if Thatcher had stayed on in 1990?
Tory majority slashed in 1992

I think they would have lost.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

They would have completed their term and Labour would have won a majority in 2015.

When would that have been apparent though?
What would a David Miliband labour have offered that would have swung it?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I think they would have lost.

So you are arguing that a leftist could have got in or that Kinnock was sufficiently centrist by 1992?

[jeremyp]

So you are arguing that a leftist could have got in or that Kinnock was sufficiently centrist by 1992?

No.

I'm arguing that Major's win was pretty slender as it was and that, with Thatcher still there, it would have swung the other way due to her personal unpopularity.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

What if DAVID Miliband had won the election in 2015?

[Nearly Sane]

What if DAVID Miliband had won the election in 2015?

The problem with that as a hypothetical is that you need to work backwards first. Does Dave win the vote against his brother? Or does Ed choke to death on a bacon sandwich and Dave pick up the reigns? Because understanding the logic there may well affect what sort of manifesto
Labour would have won on.


To be honest I suspect either Miliband would be, apart from the lack of Brexit, not a million miles away from what we have now.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

The problem with that as a hypothetical is that you need to work backwards first. Does Dave win the vote against his brother? Or does Ed choke to death on a bacon sandwich and Dave pick up the reigns? Because understanding the logic there may well affect what sort of manifesto
Labour would have won

OK
Prior to 2010 leadership election Ed is pulling one of his weird faces and the wind is blowing the wrong way so it stays like it and Dave steps in.

I can't see how Britain could be anything like in the same condition as it is today.

[Nearly Sane]

OK
Prior to 2010 leadership election Ed is pulling one of his weird faces and the wind is blowing the wrong way so it stays like it and Dave steps in.

I can't see how Britain could be anything like in the same condition as it is today.

Leaving aside Brexit, what significant differences were there in the Labour Manifesto in 2015, and given that D M is seen as more centrist than E M, it might be even less.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Leaving aside Brexit, what significant differences were there in the Labour Manifesto in 2015, and given that D M is seen as more centrist than E M, it might be even less.

There wouldn't be austerity or anything like it since the society it infers is not commensurate with a blairite vision.

[Nearly Sane]

There wouldn't be austerity or anything like it since the society it infers is not commensurate with a blairite vision.

Infers makes no sense there. Even were I to think you meant implies, then the sentence is ambiguous. The manifesto in 2015 supported austerity. If DM has been in charge then as already covered it seems likely that would have been even closer to the Tories. I would hope they might have stopped Universal Credit but not clear that would happen under DM.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Infers makes no sense there. Even were I to think you meant implies, then the sentence is ambiguous. The manifesto in 2015 supported austerity. If DM has been in charge then as already covered it seems likely that would have been even closer to the Tories. I would hope they might have stopped Universal Credit but not clear that would happen under DM.

It is in the nature of Blairism to have matched the Tories in the early years or months.
Miliband would have then been keen to promote a progressive vision of Britain.
The closeness to toryism you propose is I move coloured by your SNP leanings.

With Brexit not even on the table and I will qualify that later, The west Lothian question would loom large since that was unfinished business from the Cameron era.

Osborne we can presume would have been gone with Cameron.

The burgeoning English national sentiment would be divided between a Conservative push to 'unionism'...code for more uniform control by Westminster supported by the leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson and creaking government in Scotland, Wales and Northern and withdrawal from Europe promoted by an increasingly popular UKIP under Nigel Farage.

With the right so split Miliband would be free to knock the edges of austerity and run a Blajorist Government.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

No.

I'm arguing that Major's win was pretty slender as it was and that, with Thatcher still there, it would have swung the other way due to her personal unpopularity.

I tend to agree. Would Kinnock's majority have been large or slender?

[Nearly Sane]

It is in the nature of Blairism to have matched the Tories in the early years or months.
Miliband would have then been keen to promote a progressive vision of Britain.
The closeness to toryism you propose is I move coloured by your SNP leanings.

With Brexit not even on the table and I will qualify that later, The west Lothian question would loom large since that was unfinished business from the Cameron era.

Osborne we can presume would have been gone with Cameron.

The burgeoning English national sentiment would be divided between a Conservative push to 'unionism'...code for more uniform control by Westminster supported by the leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson and creaking government in Scotland, Wales and Northern and withdrawal from Europe promoted by an increasingly popular UKIP under Nigel Farage.

With the right so split Miliband would be free to knock the edges of austerity and run a Blajorist Government.

No, the closeness to Toryism is influenced by the Labour Manifesto in 2015, as I have already pointed out. And to repeat given that EM is seen as more progressive than DM then it seems likely that a fairly feebly progressive document would be even less so under DM.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

No, the closeness to Toryism is influenced by the Labour Manifesto in 2015, as I have already pointed out. And to repeat given that EM is seen as more progressive than DM then it seems likely that a fairly feebly progressive document would be even less so under DM.

The chief difference though is that IMV Cameron and Osborne never portrayed the UK other than a country that needed to scourge itself and one that was prone to self indulgence. Also a Miliband government never had the underlying contemporary conservative mission to annihilate workers rights.

Moreover the country would not be mired in Brexit. One would suppose then that Labour would actually have worked on tax evasion, social inequality, house building, Northern powerhouse, stop polishing the turd of public transport etc. and NHS and care.

However let's go down your road of envisaging a David Miliband government identical in policy to the tories of today with the exception of Brexit.........One would still have to factor in that a) Miliband would be full of ideas or b) a newly leadered opposition would be coming up with vote snatching ideas and Miliband would be forced to counter them.

We could assume that Dave would have got in in the first place by being less prone to the press than ED.

[Nearly Sane]

The chief difference though is that IMV Cameron and Osborne never portrayed the UK other than a country that needed to scourge itself and one that was prone to self indulgence. Also a Miliband government never had the underlying contemporary conservative mission to annihilate workers rights.

Moreover the country would not be mired in Brexit. One would suppose then that Labour would actually have worked on tax evasion, social inequality, house building, Northern powerhouse, stop polishing the turd of public transport etc. and NHS and care.

However let's go down your road of envisaging a David Miliband government identical in policy to the tories of today with the exception of Brexit.........One would still have to factor in that a) Miliband would be full of ideas or b) a newly leadered opposition would be coming up with vote snatching ideas and Miliband would be forced to counter them.

We could assume that Dave would have got in in the first place by being less prone to the press than ED.

This doesn't really fit the facts. One of the great elisions that Cameron and Osbourne managed when elected was to hide that all the spending that Labour had done under Brown,they had essentially supported. They then didn't start austerity as that had been kicked off post crash when E&D were in the govt.

I've already covered that I doubt Brexit  would have happened with a Labour govt but if DM had been leader i wouldn't have been surprised if he had matched Cameron's policy on the EU . I am not sure why I would have to factor in DM  being full of ideas when the evidence is that he isn't.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

This doesn't really fit the facts. One of the great elisions that Cameron and Osbourne managed when elected was to hide that all the spending that Labour had done under Brown,they had essentially supported. They then didn't start austerity as that had been kicked off post crash when E&D were in the govt.

I've already covered that I doubt Brexit  would have happened with a Labour govt but if DM had been leader i wouldn't have been surprised if he had matched Cameron's policy on the EU . I am not sure why I would have to factor in DM  being full of ideas when the evidence is that he isn't.

It is an essential prerequisite for any alternative history that at some point the ''facts'' are not supposed to fit!!! and that is taken as fact in my account.

Blajorism IS unspectacular and nothing like the Gung Ho punishment ethic behind ''Cambornism''.
The weakness in proposing a post crash labour government lies in the Mea culpa attitude of labour,er, post crash. I'msure Miliband D would have the nous to deflect that part of the Tory narrative.

DM would have inherited the arts of blairite spin in some measure.

In terms of matching Cameron's EU position, that in my view is your weakest argument against the alternative timeline since the referendum was a Cameronian device to fix his own party and to demonstrate that like Scots independence and voting change.....Dave felt lucky.

So no Brexit under a labour Government.