Rugby World Cup 2019

[Nearly Sane]

Out of interest, where did you gets those odds from. I'm struggling to find odds on the match, but where I have it seems nearer to 70:30 in favour of Scotland - e.g.:

https://rugby4cast.com/events/rugby-world-cup/

My head - they are what I think, that's why I said' I think' and they are just rough figures.

[ProfessorDavey]

My head - they are what I think, that's why I said' I think' and they are just rough figures.

OK - so you make comments about Scotland's chances that are more negative than the reality. You then make up betting odds that don't exist to back up your view (even though they actually don't). And you are claiming that I'm somehow wrong and made a mistake. Unbelievable.

And of course you continue to refuse to answer a direct question with a direct answer.

[Nearly Sane]

OK - so you make comments about Scotland's chances that are more negative than the reality. You then make up betting odds that don't exist to back up your view (even though they actually don't). And you are claiming that I'm somehow wrong and made a mistake. Unbelievable.

And of course you continue to refuse to answer a direct question with a direct answer.

I'm giving my opinion of what the odds are. It's my estimate - It's what I think. Odds being offered elsewhere are a factor of the maket, they aren't 'reality' in some mystical sense. You are hopelessly confused.

[ProfessorDavey]

I'm giving my opinion of what the odds are. It's my estimate - It's what I think. Odds being offered elsewhere are a factor of the maket, they aren't 'reality' in some mystical sense. You are hopelessly confused.

No - you are making stuff up. You can't just make up odds on the basis of what you think, and then try to imply that these odds back up what you think. It is non-sense. When you mentioned odds I assumed (as I suspect anyone would) that this was based on a betting market not on stuff you'd made up.

[ProfessorDavey]

I'm giving my opinion of what the odds are. It's my estimate - It's what I think. Odds being offered elsewhere are a factor of the maket, they aren't 'reality' in some mystical sense. You are hopelessly confused.

Back in the real world rather than the NS 'let's make up stuff world'.

While I'm struggling to find odds on the specific Japan/Scotland match there are odds available on stage of elimination:

https://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/rugby-world-cup-2019/stage-of-elimination-scotland

The odds (actual odds, not made-up stuff) on Scotland being eliminated at the group stage are variously 4/1 and 5/1 meaning implied probability that Scotland will not progress from the group stage is 20% or less. Hardly consistent with your comments.

[ProfessorDavey]

Oh dear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/49322030

Back to more interesting matters that NS making up odds.

I hope there aren't too many top players injured for the tournament. I think most major sporting tournaments suffer from injuries (recent example being Jimmy Anderson's injury) and you really want to see the very best players against the very best.

Not sure whether the timing - starting in Sept - helps or hinders. In one respect (certainly for the NH sides) there has been a largely off season period for recovery, although the SH sides will be coming straight out of a truncated Rugby championship tournament. However sometimes I think there is a greater risk of injury early season when players are perhaps not at peak fitness.

That said I think the Autumn timing of the world cup helps the SH teams who will have had a relatively recent and highly competitive Championship against the rest of the best. The NH sides wont have had anything properly competitive for 6 months (and that's if you consider the 6 nations to be a competitive tournament )

[ProfessorDavey]

Oh dear.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/49322030

Not sure how comprehensive this is:

https://www.rugbyworld.com/tournaments/rugby-world-cup-2019/rugby-world-cup-injuries-96775

But currently doesn't look too bad in terms of current injuries threatening to rule out players from the world cup. You will always get at least one big name ruled out through injury in any sporting tournament. I think Wales are probably worst affected currently with both Anscombe and Faletau definitely out.

[jeremyp]

What error?

'Can see Scotland getting knocked out in the group stage.'

'Likely loss to Ireland. And quite possible loss against the hosts in what looks like being a qualifier for the quarters in the last of all the group matches. Scotland not known as the best travellers.'

Are not comments that can reasonably be interpreted as anything other than you thinking Scotland going out at the group stages is a likely outcome, despite your later denial. I did not misinterpret what you wrote regardless of whether that is what you actually meant.

Actually I concur with NS on this one. His comments imply plausibility rather than better than 50% chance. The “I can see” bit is not inconsistent with that, but does suggest a fan resigned to his team screwing it up.

Anyway, I wish you guys would sometimes just let it go.

[ProfessorDavey]

Actually I concur with NS on this one.

Including him simply making stuff up - in other words making up odds, where they clearly don't exist.

You are of course correct (as I suggested previously) that his overly pessimistic view is probably a negative emotional response, while his rational head tells him something different. But of course when you are a fan it is easy to let your non rational emotional gut reaction take over, regardless of whether it is overly optimistic or (as in NS's case) overly pessimistic.

Back on odds - I think the odds of Scotland going out at the group stage of between 15-20% seems about right to me. Real odds of course - not just made up stuff.

[jeremyp]

Including him simply making stuff up - in other words making up odds, where they clearly don't exist.

Your own link currently has Ireland winning against Scotland 85% and Japan winning against Scotland 33%. Odds move.

Back on odds - I think the odds of Scotland going out at the group stage of between 15-20% seems about right to me. Real odds of course - not just made up stuff.

Well, if we assume that Scotland need to win one of those two games (or not lose), the odds are around 30% as I write.

[ProfessorDavey]

Your own link currently has Ireland winning against Scotland 85% and Japan winning against Scotland 33%. Odds move.

Sorry can you provide the link please - certainly last week I was unable to find betting odds on the specific Japan v Scotland match - one of the links was a nominal 'prediction' not betting odds.

And you are right, odds move, and the odds on Scotland being eliminated at group stage have drifted out since last week, so more likely less than 20% chance according to the odds (typically 5:1 and 9:2 now).

None of which changes the fact that NS's 'odds' weren't actually real odds at all but completely made up.

[jeremyp]

Sorry can you provide the link please

The one in your reply #24

Out of interest, where did you gets those odds from. I'm struggling to find odds on the match, but where I have it seems nearer to 70:30 in favour of Scotland - e.g.:

https://rugby4cast.com/events/rugby-world-cup/

Anyway, I see I have inadvertently reopened a side discussion that had just about died, so let's call it a day on this one.

[jeremyp]

Not sure how comprehensive this is:

https://www.rugbyworld.com/tournaments/rugby-world-cup-2019/rugby-world-cup-injuries-96775

But currently doesn't look too bad in terms of current injuries threatening to rule out players from the world cup. You will always get at least one big name ruled out through injury in any sporting tournament. I think Wales are probably worst affected currently with both Anscombe and Faletau definitely out.

Yes, it's particularly unfortunate that it happened in a World Cup warm up match. The players must be absolutely gutted.

Chris Jones made the point that Wales usually have strong second choice options (e.g. Dan Biggar for Gareth Anscombe) but their third choice options are a bit more limited. If Biggar picks up a knock in the RWC, they don't really have a world class replacement.

[ProfessorDavey]

The one in your reply #24

As I pointed out those aren't betting odds - the reason being that I cannot find any betting odds on that specific match, and nor it would appear could NS although in reply 7 he boldly proclaimed the odds to be 60:40, when no such odds existed and he'd just made them up.

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes, it's particularly unfortunate that it happened in a World Cup warm up match. The players must be absolutely gutted.

Chris Jones made the point that Wales usually have strong second choice options (e.g. Dan Biggar for Gareth Anscombe) but their third choice options are a bit more limited. If Biggar picks up a knock in the RWC, they don't really have a world class replacement.

It is certainly unfortunate, but dealing with injuries before and during a tournament is part of tournaments. Teams will always have injuries but managing those injuries and selecting your tournament players is a key part of management at that level, to provide the best strength in depth. Sometimes that means selecting the odd utility player - maybe not the best in any particular position but able to play well enough in a number of positions to cover for likely injury.

On the warm up match. Sometimes I think players are perhaps most likely to get injured in these kind of matches as I think they hold back a little specifically because it is a warm up match and that can lead to more injuries than if you go full tilt. The very nature that players are scared of getting injured just before a tournament and adjust their play accordingly leads to greater likelihood of injury.

Also not sure playing other top teams at this stage is smart - the final few warm up games for a top side are probably better against lesser sides. You'll meet the big boys in due course, what's the point of testing yourself against them in non competitive warm up matches.

[jeremyp]

As I pointed out those aren't betting odds

Well spotted.

Now why don't you find the post where I ever claimed they were betting odds. Why would I use betting odds when you yourself posted something a bit more scientific?

[jeremyp]

On the warm up match. Sometimes I think players are perhaps most likely to get injured in these kind of matches as I think they hold back a little specifically because it is a warm up match and that can lead to more injuries than if you go full tilt. The very nature that players are scared of getting injured just before a tournament and adjust their play accordingly leads to greater likelihood of injury.

An interesting hypothesis. I wonder if anybody has done any statistical analysis on it.

Also not sure playing other top teams at this stage is smart - the final few warm up games for a top side are probably better against lesser sides. You'll meet the big boys in due course, what's the point of testing yourself against them in non competitive warm up matches.

Well somebody has got to play the top teams, unless you are suggesting that the likes of England and Wales should be playing teams that didn't qualify. I don't think they'd learn much from matches like that.

[ProfessorDavey]

Well spotted.

Now why don't you find the post where I ever claimed they were betting odds. Why would I use betting odds when you yourself posted something a bit more scientific?

You did refer to odds in reply34 as follows:

'Your own link currently has Ireland winning against Scotland 85% and Japan winning against Scotland 33%. Odds move.'

But the predictions in the link referred to isn't about odds at all.

[jeremyp]

You did refer to odds in reply34 as follows:

'Your own link currently has Ireland winning against Scotland 85% and Japan winning against Scotland 33%. Odds move.'

But the predictions in the link referred to isn't about odds at all.

Yes it is, it’s just not about odds derived from bets.

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes it is, it’s just not about odds derived from bets.

In terms of sport I think it is pretty well universally accepted that when people talk about the 'odds', they mean betting odds.

The only other general use of the term odds is in statistics in relation to events of known probability - e.g. spinning a coin.

If an individual predicts the result of a sporting event we wouldn't describe that as 'odds' merely as a prediction.

[ProfessorDavey]

An interesting hypothesis. I wonder if anybody has done any statistical analysis on it.

No idea whether anyone has analysed it, but I suspect that when an elite athlete holds back in some respect they will be altering how their body has been trained to compete and that may cause problems

Well somebody has got to play the top teams, unless you are suggesting that the likes of England and Wales should be playing teams that didn't qualify. I don't think they'd learn much from matches like that.

Warm up games are more about getting players match fit after a lay-off and getting the team familiar with each other and tactics etc. And so you can learn plenty by playing lesser teams (as I think the SH teams are largely doing in their non competitive warm up games). I'm not sure what England (or Wales) will have learned from their two warm up games against each other specifically related to that opponent, given that in each team won a game when at home (and the world cup will be being played on neutral ground).

I suspect have these 'warm-up' games against each other (and other 6 nations teams) is more about revenue and profile raising that genuinely being any more useful in warm up terms than playing a lesser team.

[jeremyp]

No idea whether anyone has analysed it, but I suspect that when an elite athlete holds back in some respect they will be altering how their body has been trained to compete and that may cause problems

I don’t disagree with you, but it is something that can be tested fairly easily to find out if it is true.

Warm up games are more about getting players match fit after a lay-off and getting the team familiar with each other and tactics etc. And so you can learn plenty by playing lesser teams (as I think the SH teams are largely doing in their non competitive warm up games). I'm not sure what England (or Wales) will have learned from their two warm up games against each other specifically related to that opponent, given that in each team won a game when at home (and the world cup will be being played on neutral ground).

I would say that England could field a B team made up of players not in the World Cup squad that would beat any team that has failed to qualify. If the objective was simply match fitness or improving tac tics etc hat would IMO be a better option than playing minows. Of course, there is a benefit to the minows to having matches against England.

I suspect have these 'warm-up' games against each other (and other 6 nations teams) is more about revenue and profile raising that genuinely being any more useful in warm up terms than playing a lesser team.

I suspect you are right.

[Nearly Sane]

I don’t disagree with you, but it is something that can be tested fairly easily to find out if it is true.
I would say that England could field a B team made up of players not in the World Cup squad that would beat any team that has failed to qualify. If the objective was simply match fitness or improving tac tics etc hat would IMO be a better option than playing minows. Of course, there is a benefit to the minows to having matches against England.
I suspect you are right.

I suppose that the relatively small pool of rugby teams and the big drop off in quality, combined with geography means that there isn't much choice.

[jeremyp]

So the kick off is nearing. I have studied the pools and the routes to the final. Here are my predictions (which are, of course, just my opinions).

New Zealand will win

South Africa will be the second finalist

England will wi their pool and be knocked out by New Zealand in the semifinal

Ireland will win their pool and be knocked out by South Africa in the quarter finals

Scotland will be knocked out by NZ in the quarter finals

I think the winner of Pool D is the hardest to call. The winner (probably Australia) will probably be knocked out by England in the quarter finals. The second placed team(probably Wales)  will be knocked out by SA in the semis 

The most likely pool to have an upset is C where Argentina could beat either England or France. I think Fiji beating Wales or Australia is also worth a shout and Japan might just beat Scotland with home advantage.

 

[ProfessorDavey]

So the kick off is nearing. I have studied the pools and the routes to the final. Here are my predictions (which are, of course, just my opinions).

New Zealand will win

South Africa will be the second finalist

England will wi their pool and be knocked out by New Zealand in the semifinal

Ireland will win their pool and be knocked out by South Africa in the quarter finals

Scotland will be knocked out by NZ in the quarter finals

I think the winner of Pool D is the hardest to call. The winner (probably Australia) will probably be knocked out by England in the quarter finals. The second placed team(probably Wales)  will be knocked out by SA in the semis 

The most likely pool to have an upset is C where Argentina could beat either England or France. I think Fiji beating Wales or Australia is also worth a shout and Japan might just beat Scotland with home advantage.

Despite the current ranking that have variously had NH sides top I think the SH teams tend to rise to the occasion of the world cup.

I think this is fundamentally because they are better sides, but there are two other factors to play to their favour. First they tend to be better prepared and more 'tournament fit' not least because that have recently come through their own competitive tournament, while the NH side have had nothing competitive since March. Secondly I think they travel better - don't forget that in a standard 4 nations rugby championship the SH teams have to travel effectively to the other side of the globe to compete, while the NH sides at most play a couple of hours flight away in Italy.

With this tournament being in Japan all the leading sides will have considerable travel/adjustment and I suspect the SH sides will do this better as they have much greater experience in this respect.