Rugby World Cup 2019

[jeremyp]

Points difference, tries difference, points scored, tries scored, IRB ranking as of 14th October 2019.

O

It won’t get beyond points difference. Japan’s is already the worst and if they lose to Scotland, it won’t get better.

[ProfessorDavey]

Points difference, tries difference, points scored, tries scored, IRB ranking as of 14th October 2019.

O

I've just read that points difference will decide the top team if all teams finish on 15 points, having each beaten each other. Then second and third are decided on head to head result.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/oct/07/rugby-world-cup-pool-permutations

See section on pool A.

If that is the case if Scotland beat Japan and Ireland fail to overtake Scotland's points difference (currently 19 better than Ireland), then Scotland win the group and who goes through would be based on the result of the Ireland/Japan game, which would be Japan.

[Nearly Sane]

I've just read that points difference will decide the top team if all teams finish on 15 points, having each beaten each other. Then second and third are decided on head to head result.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/oct/07/rugby-world-cup-pool-permutations

See section on pool A.

If that is the case if Scotland beat Japan and Ireland fail to overtake Scotland's points difference (currently 19 better than Ireland), then Scotland win the group and who goes through would be based on the result of the Ireland/Japan game, which would be Japan.

So theoretically, given the Ireland match is on Saturday and the Scotland Japan game is on the Sunday, Scotland and Japan could arrange the score for both to go through, if Ireland don't get a bonus point.

[ProfessorDavey]

So theoretically, given the Ireland match is on Saturday and the Scotland Japan game is on the Sunday, Scotland and Japan could arrange the score for both to go through, if Ireland don't get a bonus point.

If those are the correct criteria then, yes.

If Ireland fail to get a bonus point and haven't massively overtaken Scotland's points difference (which would probably be the case if they don't get a bonus point) Scotland and Japan can contrive a result that gets them both through. The interesting thing would be what would happen if early in the second half Scotland were no more than 7 points up and had scored 4 tries to get their own bonus point - would either side do anything to rock the boat? If Scotland push for a greater victory (which would achieve nothing, they'd be top anyway) they'd risk shipping a try or two and perhaps lose or draw meaning elimination. For Japan, sure they could push on to try to win or draw or get a 4 try bonus point themselves, but all they'd gain is a different quarter final draw but if while pressing they let Scotland win by more than 7 they are out.

Football got rid of this non-sense back in the 80s after the West Germany/Austria game in the 1982 world cup.

[ProfessorDavey]

If those are the correct criteria then, yes.

If Ireland fail to get a bonus point and haven't massively overtaken Scotland's points difference (which would probably be the case if they don't get a bonus point) Scotland and Japan can contrive a result that gets them both through. The interesting thing would be what would happen if early in the second half Scotland were no more than 7 points up and had scored 4 tries to get their own bonus point - would either side do anything to rock the boat? If Scotland push for a greater victory (which would achieve nothing, they'd be top anyway) they'd risk shipping a try or two and perhaps lose or draw meaning elimination. For Japan, sure they could push on to try to win or draw or get a 4 try bonus point themselves, but all they'd gain is a different quarter final draw but if while pressing they let Scotland win by more than 7 they are out.

Football got rid of this non-sense back in the 80s after the West Germany/Austria game in the 1982 world cup.

[ProfessorDavey]

Wales through although Fiji gave them quite a game. More concerning is that they seem of have several potentially serious injuries.

[Nearly Sane]

So all the Group A permutations may be made moot by Hagibis

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/49984703

[jeremyp]

I've just read that points difference will decide the top team if all teams finish on 15 points, having each beaten each other. Then second and third are decided on head to head result.

Yes, that's different from what I thought. I've just checked the official page and it does explicitly call that situation out.

https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/tournament-rules

If that is the case if Scotland beat Japan and Ireland fail to overtake Scotland's points difference (currently 19 better than Ireland), then Scotland win the group and who goes through would be based on the result of the Ireland/Japan game, which would be Japan.

Ireland could fail to overtake Scotland's points difference but still earn a bonus point against Samoa. Then they would top the group unless Japan wins against Scotland.

[jeremyp]

Wales through although Fiji gave them quite a game. More concerning is that they seem of have several potentially serious injuries.

According to the BBC text updates, Jonathan Davies was looking like his world Cup was over when sat on the bench.

I thought Dan Biggar's injury didn't sound too bad as he went off for a head injury and as long as he passed the concussion tests would be OK for the next game. However, it is apparently his second head injury of the tournament, so he might be in some trouble.

I'm not sure about the status of Josh Adams.

The BBC were saying that Jonathan Davies would be a huge loss, but I think they might feel the loss of Biggar more because he was already Wales's second choice.

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes, that's different from what I thought. I've just checked the official page and it does explicitly call that situation out.

https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/tournament-rules

Which seems to confirm the position I indicated, namely that if all three teams have 15 points, then the team with the biggest points difference will top the group and the second and third place will be determined on the basis of the results between those two teams.

Ireland could fail to overtake Scotland's points difference but still earn a bonus point against Samoa. Then they would top the group unless Japan wins against Scotland.

Yup if Ireland win and get a bonus point they are through.

[ProfessorDavey]

So all the Group A permutations may be made moot by Hagibis

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/49984703

Turning into an utter fiasco.

How on earth the organisers are unable to move venues or shift the games forward or back a day is beyond me.

Scotland could well be eliminated if (as appears likely from the radio item) their game is cancelled.

Italy already have been eliminated by that method, although their chances of progression were slim.

[Nearly Sane]

And you would have thought this would be one of the easier matches to move given it's the last one of the pool games.

[ProfessorDavey]

And you would have thought this would be one of the easier matches to move given it's the last one of the pool games.

The downside of moving it to Monday (and perhaps a different venue) will be less rest time for the qualifying team prior to the quarter finals. But as the New Zealand game is cancelled (so they wont have played for 2 weeks) and South Africa played their last pool game on Tuesday, there was always going to be a huge mismatch in rest time.

Although I suspect it isn't the Japanese organisers in control of the decision the suspicion will be that cancelling the match guarantees that Japan go through.

And the other aspect is that this was the only group with something meaningful to play for in the final round of matches - the rest being dead rubbers, so we will just got rid of the only real excitement at the end of the group stages if the match doesn't go ahead.

[Nearly Sane]

Yep, agree with all of that. And of course should it be called off, then Japan will top the group

[ProfessorDavey]

Yep, agree with all of that. And of course should it be called off, then Japan will top the group

Sure - I don't think Japan will care too much about that - I suspect they'd happily take a quarter final regardless of whether it is against NZ or SA.

However Ireland wont be happy about having to face NZ in the quarters regardless of how well they beat Samoa. To an extent, though, they have themselves to blame for losing to Japan in the first place.

[jeremyp]

The downside of moving it to Monday (and perhaps a different venue) will be less rest time for the qualifying team prior to the quarter finals. But as the New Zealand game is cancelled (so they wont have played for 2 weeks) and South Africa played their last pool game on Tuesday, there was always going to be a huge mismatch in rest time.

Although I suspect it isn't the Japanese organisers in control of the decision the suspicion will be that cancelling the match guarantees that Japan go through.

And the other aspect is that this was the only group with something meaningful to play for in the final round of matches - the rest being dead rubbers, so we will just got rid of the only real excitement at the end of the group stages if the match doesn't go ahead.

Apparently, Monday is a national holiday in Japan. That means they might not be able to find enough people to staff the venue.

Anyway, Scotland are suing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50011693

[jeremyp]

Japan will top the group

I don't think that really matters. I don't think any team in Pool A would beat South Africa, let alone New Zealand.

[Outrider]

I don't think that really matters. I don't think any team in Pool A would beat South Africa, let alone New Zealand.

Ireland could beat either if they play well - they have the all-round game to do so.  Scotland and Japan would both struggle - Scotland's forwards do not secure enough ball, and quick enough ball, to unleash their back line enough to worry either of those sides; Japan rely to an extent on wearing opposition out, and I suspect South Africa and New Zealand have enough gamecraft to slow the pace of the game and play to something approximating their own tempo a little more.

O.

[jeremyp]

Ireland could beat either if they play well

Any team can beat any other team if they play well enough and the other side plays badly enough. Ireland have played well in the past but in 2019 they have been patchy at best. I don't think they will beat South Africa.

[Nearly Sane]

So Ireland are through and who they play next, while some that is academic, will be what happens tomorrow.

If the match is cancelled, it will mean that Greig Laidlaw will be retired

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/50020483

[Nearly Sane]

And match going ahead, and I fins myself supporting Japan.

[ProfessorDavey]

And match going ahead, and I fins myself supporting Japan.

Great that the match is going ahead.

[jeremyp]

As I write it is 28-21 to Japan. If I am reading the rules correctly,

https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/tournament-rules

If Japan end up losing by 7 points or less, they will still top the group because they will have two bonus points.

[jeremyp]

Well that's moot. Well done Japan.

[jeremyp]

Oh

https://www.checkiday.com/7f513f44e219e0fe8bb74e10b1b132d1/international-day-for-failure