Arming the Ukrainians

[Spud]

You make it sound like the only possible options are capitulation or prolonged war

I said agree to peace terms or fight to the last man, which is futile. What are the alternative options that don't involve mutually assured destruction?

[ad_orientem]

I said agree to peace terms or fight to the last man, which is futile. What are the alternative options that don't involve mutually assured destruction?

Sigh! Your opinion is based on a series of assumptions that aren't really founded on anything, except for the narratives that russia feeds its useful idiots.

[Spud]

Sigh! Your opinion is based on a series of assumptions that aren't really founded on anything, except for the narratives that russia feeds its useful idiots.

It's based on Luke 14:31-32.

If I've interpreted this right, it means that the king with only 10,000 soldiers wisely submits to the king with 20,000 and in the same way, a person who understands that he will one day face God's wrath will submit every aspect of his life to God.

But I may have understood that incorrectly.

But you seem to be saying that I'm assuming Russia would go to nuclear war if the West used its might to help Ukraine?

I think we have seen that whenever Ukraine strikes Russia where it hurts, Russia strikes back much harder. So the logical endpoint of giving Ukraine "everything it needs when it needs it" would be that Ukraine would inflict a lot of damage but be destroyed in the process.

[Nearly Sane]

It's based on Luke 14:31-32.

If I've interpreted this right, it means that the king with only 10,000 soldiers wisely submits to the king with 20,000 and in the same way, a person who understands that he will one day face God's wrath will submit every aspect of his life to God.

But I may have understood that incorrectly.

But you seem to be saying that I'm assuming Russia would go to nuclear war if the West used its might to help Ukraine?

I think we have seen that whenever Ukraine strikes Russia where it hurts, Russia strikes back much harder. So the logical endpoint of giving Ukraine "everything it needs when it needs it" would be that Ukraine would inflict a lot of damage but be destroyed in the process.

So the god you worship is just like the thug Putin.

[Spud]

So the god you worship is just like the thug Putin.

Well I don't know about Putin, but God is merciful if we repent, so not a thug.

Anyway I think I over interpreted the passage. The point Jesus was making was that before you become a disciple you have to think seriously about whether you are ready to give up everything. He was not saying that armies with half the number of soldiers as the enemy should fight to the last man (a kind of 'give up everything' way of thinking). He was using the idea that a king obviously wouldn't do that, to illustrate how you wouldn't become a disciple of Jesus if, for example, you were not prepared to give up your old way of life.
So according to Jesus, Ukraine would seek terms for peace because they can't win a war of attrition.

[Dicky Underpants]

Well I don't know about Putin, but God is merciful if we repent, so not a thug.

Anyway I think I over interpreted the passage. The point Jesus was making was that before you become a disciple you have to think seriously about whether you are ready to give up everything. He was not saying that armies with half the number of soldiers as the enemy should fight to the last man (a kind of 'give up everything' way of thinking). He was using the idea that a king obviously wouldn't do that, to illustrate how you wouldn't become a disciple of Jesus if, for example, you were not prepared to give up your old way of life.
So according to Jesus, Ukraine would seek terms for peace because they can't win a war of attrition.

Yes, you certainly have over interpreted it. I hardly think that becoming a disciple of Jesus can be equivalent to becoming the vassal of a power-crazed thug. Jesus, if we are to believe the story, gave up everything himself, and paid the ultimate penalty. Putin has spent his life accumulating wealth (most of it belonging to other people) and gets very miffed when he can't get his hands on it or it is taken back from him.

[Maeght]

Well I don't know about Putin, but God is merciful if we repent, so not a thug.

Anyway I think I over interpreted the passage. The point Jesus was making was that before you become a disciple you have to think seriously about whether you are ready to give up everything. He was not saying that armies with half the number of soldiers as the enemy should fight to the last man (a kind of 'give up everything' way of thinking). He was using the idea that a king obviously wouldn't do that, to illustrate how you wouldn't become a disciple of Jesus if, for example, you were not prepared to give up your old way of life.
So according to Jesus, Ukraine would seek terms for peace because they can't win a war of attrition.

Repent or else. Sounds like a thug to me.

[ad_orientem]

Well I don't know about Putin, but God is merciful if we repent, so not a thug.

Anyway I think I over interpreted the passage. The point Jesus was making was that before you become a disciple you have to think seriously about whether you are ready to give up everything. He was not saying that armies with half the number of soldiers as the enemy should fight to the last man (a kind of 'give up everything' way of thinking). He was using the idea that a king obviously wouldn't do that, to illustrate how you wouldn't become a disciple of Jesus if, for example, you were not prepared to give up your old way of life.
So according to Jesus, Ukraine would seek terms for peace because they can't win a war of attrition.

Again! "Fight to the last man". This is one of the phrases russia feeds to its useful idiots. Ukraine doesn't need to do that to win. Yes, Ukraine takes casualties, it's a war, but russia is losing the war of attrition.

Does your god say "Be looted, raped and murdered; and you will be saved"? Fucking unbombed telling the bombed to surrender. Fuck you all!

[Spud]

russia is losing the war of attrition.

Both sides are taking equal numbers of casualties, from what I can see.

[Outrider]

Well I don't know about Putin, but God is merciful if we repent, so not a thug.

Worship or suffer eternal consequences is infinite mafiosa, not divine benevolence.

Anyway I think I over interpreted the passage. The point Jesus was making was that before you become a disciple you have to think seriously about whether you are ready to give up everything. He was not saying that armies with half the number of soldiers as the enemy should fight to the last man (a kind of 'give up everything' way of thinking). He was using the idea that a king obviously wouldn't do that, to illustrate how you wouldn't become a disciple of Jesus if, for example, you were not prepared to give up your old way of life.
So according to Jesus, Ukraine would seek terms for peace because they can't win a war of attrition.

So, on that -
a) you're wrong, they very much can win the war of attrition, and the more - and more overt - support they get from Western allies the sooner and more significantly they'll win;
b) your assumption is that Ukraine's military decisions should be based on their adherence to some bronze age mythology nonsense rather than, say, the military, economic and political realities of the current era; and,
c) how come the onus is all, still, in your mind on Ukraine, and it's not for Russia to fuck off back where they came from?

O.

[Spud]

Ukraine's military decisions

Are interesting: currently they seem to hold their positions until surrounded, then others try to unblock them to allow evacuation. Why not just evacuate before they're surrounded?

[ad_orientem]

Are interesting: currently they seem to hold their positions until surrounded, then others try to unblock them to allow evacuation. Why not just evacuate before they're surrounded?

If you're referring to Pokeovsk, they're not surrounded. How many twns of thousands of russian soldiers lives did it take to occupy Bakhmut?

[Outrider]

Are interesting: currently they seem to hold their positions until surrounded, then others try to unblock them to allow evacuation. Why not just evacuate before they're surrounded?

Because you can be surrounded in a defensible position and cost your invaders time, money, casualties and bad publicity without necessarily being at risk of being over-run. It's a case-by-case tactical and strategic decision made by people with more up-to-date and accurate information than either of us - occasionally they'll misjudge, but the disparity in casualty figures between Ukrainian forces and Russian ones, the painfully slow crawl that the Russian advances, when they do happen, have been reduced to suggests that the Ukrainian leadership are making reasonably good calls reasonably often.

Currently Russia seems to be throwing an entire generation of young men into a meat-grinder on no valid justification to appease Putin's ego and prop up his kleptocratic elite with war-footing cash that's going to come due in the years to come: why not withdraw now before it's too late?

O.

[Spud]

but the disparity in casualty figures between Ukrainian forces and Russian ones,

Russian sources say Ukraine has over a million killed.

[Spud]

If you're referring to Pokeovsk, they're not surrounded. How many twns of thousands of russian soldiers lives did it take to occupy Bakhmut?

Neighbouring Myrnohrad is surrounded. The evacuation routes from Pokrovsk are cut off by drones.

[Outrider]

Russian sources say Ukraine has over a million killed.

Russian sources also say:
 - this isn't a war
 - Russia is winning against NATO
 - NATO's expansion is the reason for the war that isn't happening
 - All the videos and images of dead Russian soldiers are fake
 - All of the well-documented, repeatedly corroborated, even live-streamed breaches of the articles of war didn't happen at all
 - The four regions of Ukraine all requested Russian intervention
 - The four annexed regions of Ukraine were being militarily suppressed by Ukraine prior to their invasion helpful intervention
 - Crimea is part of Russia

It's almost as Russia lies or something, you'd think someone would have spotted that earlier, it's an unbelievable oversight. Thank you so much for helping to bring this to light...

And let's assume, for a moment, that the Russian estimate of the Ukrainian war-dead is correct, and let's also assume that all of those deaths were native Ukrainians, and not the volunteer forces that have been helping resist the entirely unwarranted Russian invasion. Most independent estimates are in the region of 400,000, so that means that estimates are about 40% of actual deaths. That puts the Russian casualties at about 2.5 million, given the current independent estimates of around 1 million war dead.

That's 1 million Ukrainian dead out of a pre-war population of 43 million. Compared to Russia's 2.5 million dead out of 147 million. Ukraine is winning that ratio.

Then you could look at the demographics of those deaths and see that Russia's skews much younger, suggesting that a more significant portion of one future generation has been gutted by Putin's aggression. Then look at the numbers fleeing those countries to avoid conscription - around 100,000 Ukrainians, pitched against somewhere in the region of 400,000 - 700,000 for Russia.

And that's before you look a the differential effects of sanctions and those demographic shifts on the economics of both countries, and the effects of Ukraine's crackdown on corruption against Russia's active advocacy of it.

Russia's losing, but we could all do with them losing quicker. They can't even get that bit right, it seems.

O.

[Spud]

Russian sources also say:
 - this isn't a war
 - Russia is winning against NATO
 - NATO's expansion is the reason for the war that isn't happening
 - All the videos and images of dead Russian soldiers are fake
 - All of the well-documented, repeatedly corroborated, even live-streamed breaches of the articles of war didn't happen at all
 - The four regions of Ukraine all requested Russian intervention
 - The four annexed regions of Ukraine were being militarily suppressed by Ukraine prior to their invasion helpful intervention
 - Crimea is part of Russia

It's almost as Russia lies or something, you'd think someone would have spotted that earlier, it's an unbelievable oversight. Thank you so much for helping to bring this to light...

And let's assume, for a moment, that the Russian estimate of the Ukrainian war-dead is correct, and let's also assume that all of those deaths were native Ukrainians, and not the volunteer forces that have been helping resist the entirely unwarranted Russian invasion. Most independent estimates are in the region of 400,000, so that means that estimates are about 40% of actual deaths. That puts the Russian casualties at about 2.5 million, given the current independent estimates of around 1 million war dead.

That's 1 million Ukrainian dead out of a pre-war population of 43 million. Compared to Russia's 2.5 million dead out of 147 million. Ukraine is winning that ratio.

Then you could look at the demographics of those deaths and see that Russia's skews much younger, suggesting that a more significant portion of one future generation has been gutted by Putin's aggression. Then look at the numbers fleeing those countries to avoid conscription - around 100,000 Ukrainians, pitched against somewhere in the region of 400,000 - 700,000 for Russia.

And that's before you look a the differential effects of sanctions and those demographic shifts on the economics of both countries, and the effects of Ukraine's crackdown on corruption against Russia's active advocacy of it.

Russia's losing, but we could all do with them losing quicker. They can't even get that bit right, it seems.

O.

Russia's goal is to 'liberate' previously Russian regions. They are gaining pace in doing this. And we can note that Donetsk city is now 40 miles from Ukrainian artillery, so can only be attacked with drones. Ukraine's stated goal was originally to push them out completely but is now to slow them down - which they have achieved. I'm not sure how you can conclude Ukraine is winning. 2.5/147 is less than 1/43, by the way.

[Outrider]

Russia's goal is to 'liberate' previously Russian regions.

Russia's goal is to destablise Europe to allow them to compete on a more even keel - invading, occupying and taking over foreign nations and lands is only part of that, not the end goal.

They are gaining pace in doing this.

Not noticeably they haven't - they've been bogged down with no effective gains, and several losses, in recent times, and now Ukraine is increasingly opening other fronts by attacking Russian territory and assets outside of the Ukrainian territory directly.

And we can note that Donetsk city is now 40 miles from Ukrainian artillery, so can only be attacked with drones.

And yet Moscow and Russian oil distilleries are now in range - Ukraine is focusing its efforts and not throwing lives away holding territory longer than they need.

Ukraine's stated goal was originally to push them out completely but is now to slow them down - which they have achieved.

Again, you're conflating current tactical decisions and long-term strategy - Ukraine's long-term intent is still to recover all their territory, their plan to achieve that is to drain Russia's resources, which means meaningful, proportionate resistance in the field whilst striking at economic targets in Russia.

I'm not sure how you can conclude Ukraine is winning. 2.5/147 is less than 1/43, by the way.

Because Ukraine isn't looking to win on the pure numbers in the field - the ratios are barely separable, the demographics are far more in favour of Ukraine, and the trends are against Russia - Russian casualties are increasing as they more desperately throw bodies at the problem and run out of technological solutions, whilst Ukraine is learning, improving, getting better equipment and preserving their people more and more. Ukraine's casualty rate is going down over the course of the war, Russia's is not.

O.